The Quest for the Ring Express Version

Los Angeles Lakers Real Player Ratings as of March 14, 2010

2010-03-15T01:57:00.000-07:00

LOS ANGELES LAKERS
MOST VALUABLE PLAYERS
2009-10 season through March 14

Congratulations and respect are due to PAU GASOL AND KOBE BRYANT, who are tied for leading the Lakers in quality basketball so far this season.

Congratulations and respect are due to KOBE BRYANT, who has contributed more than any other player to the Lakers so far this season.

MAJOR HISTORIC SUPER STARS
None

HISTORIC SUPER STARS
PAU GASOL
KOBE BRYANT
LAMAR ODOM

SUPERSTARS
ANDREW BYNUM

STARS
None

VERY GOOD PLAYERS--SOLID STARTERS
Ron Artest

MAJOR ROLE PLAYERS--GOOD ENOUGH TO START
Shannon Brown
Jordan Farmar

BEST BY SIDE OF COURT
BEST OFFENSIVE PLAYER
Kobe Bryant

BEST DEFENSIVE PLAYER
Lamar Odom

LOS ANGELES LAKERS
REAL PLAYER RATINGS
2009-10 Regular Season
As of March 14, 2010
Quality of players: includes all tracked actions and hidden defending
All players who have played at least 300 minutes included

Pau Gasol 1.063
Kobe Bryant 1.062
Lamar Odom 1.042
Andrew Bynum 0.937
Ron Artest 0.782
Shannon Brown 0.738
Jordan Farmar 0.730
Derek Fisher 0.610
Sasha Vujacic 0.521
Josh Powell 0.425

SCALE FOR REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Perfect for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.910 0.999
A Star Player / A Well Above Normal Starter 0.830 0.909
Very Good Player / A Solid Starter 0.760 0.829
Major Role Player / Good Enough to Start 0.700 0.759
Good Role Player / Often a Good 6th Man 0.650 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player 0.590 0.649
Marginal Role Player 0.530 0.589
Poor Player 0.470 0.529
Very Poor Player 0.400 0.469
Extremely Poor Player and less 0.399

NOTES REGARDING LOW REGULAR SEASON RATINGS
Players rated below about .550 sometimes get playing time based largely on factors outside of RPR, but valued by coaches and other players, such as:
--Great energy, effort, and hustle
--Toughness, such as diving after loose balls and taking charges
--Leadership and/or knowledge, especially in the case of veterans
--Perceived potential for future improvement in terms of real basketball production, especially in the case of young players

But keep in mind also that the value of these qualities may be overestimated, particularly with respect to playoff games. See the User Guide (link at the bottom) for much more.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
2009-10 Regular Season
As of March 14, 2010
Quantity of players: includes all tracked actions and hidden defending
All players who have played at least 300 minutes included

Kobe Bryant 2518.74
Lamar Odom 2118.53
Pau Gasol 1911.68
Andrew Bynum 1778.21
Ron Artest 1622.72
Derek Fisher 1106.78
Shannon Brown 977.05
Jordan Farmar 871.00
Sasha Vujacic 221.75
Josh Powell 180.67

========== OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS ==================================

LOS ANGELES LAKERS
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
2009-10 Regular Season
As of March 14, 2010
Offensive Quality: Includes all non-trivial offensive actions

Kobe Bryant 0.634
Pau Gasol 0.553
Andrew Bynum 0.454
Lamar Odom 0.435
Jordan Farmar 0.389
Sasha Vujacic 0.376
Ron Artest 0.361
Shannon Brown 0.356
Derek Fisher 0.306
Josh Powell 0.251

LOS ANGELES LAKERS
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
2009-10 Regular Season
As of March 14, 2010
Defending Quality: Includes both tracked and hidden defending

Lamar Odom 0.607
Pau Gasol 0.510
Andrew Bynum 0.483
Kobe Bryant 0.429
Ron Artest 0.421
Shannon Brown 0.382
Jordan Farmar 0.341
Derek Fisher 0.304
Josh Powell 0.174
Sasha Vujacic 0.145

The breakdown between hidden and unhidden is available on request.

THE ALL IMPORTANT, AWARD WINNING REAL PLAYER RATINGS USER GUIDE
For complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide.

Denver Nuggets Real Player Ratings as of March 14, 2010

2010-03-14T23:50:00.000-07:00

DENVER NUGGETS
MOST VALUABLE PLAYERS
2009-10 season through March 14

Congratulations and respect are due to CHAUNCEY BILLUPS, who is leading the Nuggets in quality basketball so far this season.

Congratulations and respect are due to NENE, who has contributed more than any other player to the Nuggets so far this season.

MAJOR HISTORIC SUPER STARS
None

HISTORIC SUPER STARS
None

SUPERSTARS
CHAUNCEY BILLUPS

STARS
Chris Andersen
Carmelo Anthony
Nene

VERY GOOD PLAYERS--SOLID STARTERS
Ty Lawson

MAJOR ROLE PLAYERS--GOOD ENOUGH TO START
J.R. Smith
Kenyon Martin

BEST BY SIDE OF COURT
BEST OFFENSIVE PLAYER
Chauncey Billups

BEST DEFENSIVE PLAYER
Chris Andersen

DENVER NUGGETS
REAL PLAYER RATINGS
2009-10 Regular Season
As of March 14, 2010
Quality of players: includes all tracked actions and hidden defending
All players who have played at least 300 minutes included

Chauncey Billups 0.950
Chris Andersen 0.908
Carmelo Anthony 0.902
Nene Hilario 0.872
Ty Lawson 0.770
J.R. Smith 0.748
Kenyon Martin 0.732
Anthony Carter 0.695
Arron Afflalo 0.577
Joey Graham 0.438
Malik Allen 0.253

SCALE FOR REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Perfect for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.910 0.999
A Star Player / A Well Above Normal Starter 0.830 0.909
Very Good Player / A Solid Starter 0.760 0.829
Major Role Player / Good Enough to Start 0.700 0.759
Good Role Player / Often a Good 6th Man 0.650 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player 0.590 0.649
Marginal Role Player 0.530 0.589
Poor Player 0.470 0.529
Very Poor Player 0.400 0.469
Extremely Poor Player and less 0.399

NOTES REGARDING LOW REGULAR SEASON RATINGS
Players rated below about .550 sometimes get playing time based largely on factors outside of RPR, but valued by coaches and other players, such as:
--Great energy, effort, and hustle
--Toughness, such as diving after loose balls and taking charges
--Leadership and/or knowledge, especially in the case of veterans
--Perceived potential for future improvement in terms of real basketball production, especially in the case of young players

But keep in mind also that the value of these qualities may be overestimated, particularly with respect to playoff games. See the User Guide (link at the bottom) for much more.

DENVER NUGGETS
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
2009-10 Regular Season
As of March 14, 2010
Quantity of players: includes all tracked actions and hidden defending
All players who have played at least 300 minutes included

Nene Hilario 1933.05
Chauncey Billups 1837.60
Carmelo Anthony 1811.25
Kenyon Martin 1404.80
Chris Andersen 1289.74
J.R. Smith 1233.74
Arron Afflalo 1028.03
Ty Lawson 913.76
Anthony Carter 465.20
Joey Graham 261.18
Malik Allen 78.23

========== OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS ==================================

DENVER NUGGETS
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
2009-10 Regular Season
As of March 14, 2010
Offensive Quality: Includes all non-trivial offensive actions

Chauncey Billups 0.693
Carmelo Anthony 0.615
Ty Lawson 0.571
Anthony Carter 0.465
Nene Hilario 0.461
J.R. Smith 0.427
Arron Afflalo 0.349
Kenyon Martin 0.303
Chris Andersen 0.287
Malik Allen 0.232
Joey Graham 0.221

DENVER NUGGETS
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
2009-10 Regular Season
As of March 14, 2010
Defending Quality: Includes both tracked and hidden defending

Chris Andersen 0.621
Kenyon Martin 0.429
Nene Hilario 0.411
J.R. Smith 0.321
Carmelo Anthony 0.288
Chauncey Billups 0.258
Anthony Carter 0.231
Arron Afflalo 0.228
Joey Graham 0.217
Ty Lawson 0.200
Malik Allen 0.021

The breakdown between hidden and unhidden is available on request.

THE ALL IMPORTANT, AWARD WINNING REAL PLAYER RATINGS USER GUIDE
For complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide.

The Situation: Real Team Ratings as of March 5, 2010: the Los Angeles Lakers Regain the Lead Over Denver and Gain on the Leading Cleveland Cavaliers

2010-03-04T23:57:00.000-08:00

REAL TEAM RATINGS
NBA 2009-10 REGULAR SEASON
AS OF MARCH 5, 2010
1 Cleveland Cavaliers 48.00
2 Los Angeles Lakers 38.20
3 Orlando Magic 33.00
4 Denver Nuggets 29.10
5 Dallas Mavericks 20.10
6 Atlanta Hawks 16.90
7 Utah Jazz 16.90
8 Boston Celtics 15.30
9 San Antonio Spurs 5.60
10 Portland Trail Blazers 5.10
11 Oklahoma City Thunder 4.70
12 Phoenix Suns -0.80
13 Charlotte Bobcats -9.30
14 Chicago Bulls -14.50
15 Miami Heat -15.00
16 Milwaukee Bucks -16.10
17 New Orleans Hornets -17.00
18 Houston Rockets -18.40
19 Memphis Grizzlies -19.70
20 Washington Wizards -30.50
21 Toronto Raptors -35.40
22 Detroit Pistons -39.20
23 Philadelphia 76ers -40.70
24 Los Angeles Clippers -43.30
25 New York Knicks -45.20
26 Indiana Pacers -48.70
27 Sacramento Kings -51.40
28 Golden State Warriors -60.20
29 Minnesota Timberwolves -70.50
30 New Jersey Nets -84.10

CONFERENCE AND LEAGUE FINALS PROJECTIONS AS OF MARCH 5, 2010
2010 NBA CHAMPIONSHIP
Los Angeles Lakers over Cleveland Cavaliers 4-3

2010 NBA WEST FINAL
Los Angeles Lakers over Denver Nuggets 4-2

2010 NBA EAST FINAL
Cleveland Cavaliers over Orlando Magic 4-2

CONTENDER BREAKDOWN
Includes links to the best team performance page available on the Internet

CURRENT MAJOR CONTENDERS
Los Angeles Lakers
Cleveland Cavaliers
Orlando Magic

CURRENT WILD CARD CONTENDERS
Denver Nuggets
Boston Celtics
Dallas Mavericks

CURRENT LONG SHOT CONTENDERS
Atlanta Hawks
San Antonio Spurs
Utah Jazz

THE EAST SITUATION: CLEVELAND HAS A GOOD LEAD OVER ORLANDO
Since about the first of the year, the Celtics have consistently disappointed while the Cavaliers have surged and while the Orlando Magic have moved steadily ahead. The Celtics have had serious injury problems, so it is certainly possible that they remain at least even with the Magic at full strength. However, we decided to bump the Magic ahead of the Celtics, at least for now, due to:

--The nightmare loss by the Celtics to the worst team in the League at home: the New Jersey Nets. Probably no NBA finalist in history has ever lost to the worst team in the League at home.

--Two days earlier, on February 25, the Celtics were buried at home by the Cavaliers themselves by 20 points.

--The Orlando lead over Boston in the Real Team Ratings (above) is now almost 18 points, which together with home court advantage would make Orlando a pretty good favorite over Boston in a series. The Celtics are also 33 points behind the Cavaliers, which unless there is a big change or a miracle means the Celtics can not beat the Cavaliers in a series this year.

Among the top Celtics, power forward and historical superstar Kevin Garnett has missed 11 out of 59 games so far this year and star and small forward Paul Pierce has missed ten games so far this year. On the other hand, superstar and point guard Rajon Rondo, solid starter and shooting guard Ray Allen and starting center Kendrick Perkins have missed only one game each.

It seems that although the Celtics have been hampered somewhat by injuries, they are falling short of Cleveland and very possibly Orlando even after adjusting for injuries. The Celtics are fooling themselves if they think that just getting injury free alone will enable them to battle the Cavaliers to the end this year. Rather, even at full strength, the Celtics can probably win only three games at the very most in a best of seven against Cleveland this year, unless they ramp it up a little.

In any event, the Celtics are injury free as of the date of this report. The Orlando Magic are also injury free. The Cleveland Cavaliers are largely injury free, but they have just lost superstar center Shaquille O'Neal until sometime during the first round of the playoffs (late April). O'Neal had surgery on his sprained right thumb and will be out eight weeks. It could have been much worse: the surgery could have been a month from now in which case O'Neal would have been lost for much of the playoffs.

Moreover, O’Neal previously missed half a dozen games but the Cavaliers had little if any trouble winning without him. The returning squad from 2008-09, especially the guards and power forward Anderson Varejao, have grown very comfortable indeed playing with LeBron James in a coordinated way. The Cavaliers know full well that if any player tries to be an alpha dog on a LeBron James team other than LeBron James himself, the net result will be bad. Put yourself under the LeBron James umbrella and do your absolute best under that umbrella and it’s all good. Realize too that O'Neal plays only about 23 minutes a game when he is not injured.

The Cavaliers did make an outstanding just before the trade deadline exchange where they received Antawn Jamison (veteran Wizards star, almost a superstar) for Zydrunas Ilgauskas (more or less replaced by Shaquille O’Neill and Anderson Varejao and fading badly from prior star status.)

The Cavaliers also picked up role player and point guard Sebastian Telfair in the just before the deadline trade. Cleveland was living dangerously with just two point guards on its roster. When starting point guard Mo Williams (solid starter and possible star) was lost to the Cavaliers for about a month starting January 21, the Cavaliers were left with only one true point guard, the very young but extremely good three-point shooter Daniel Gibson. The acquisition of Telfair increased the number of point guards on the Cavaliers from two to three. Three is enough to cover the Championship run if one of them is injured. Although LeBron James can play any position very well with the possible exception of center, you don’t want to run even a small chance that there will be only one true point guard on the team for a Championship run.

Telfair by the way has not actually played for the Cavaliers yet: he has been out since January 21 due to an injury but is due back very soon.

As for Orlando, they are proof positive that being able to hit threes and not being afraid to try a good number of them are major assets. Being able to hit threes becomes even more important come playoff time. Like it or not, the three point shot is a very important factor that you try to downplay at your own peril. There are five teams that make a greater percentage of threes this year than do the Magic, including amazingly the Nuggets, but the Magic attempt and make more threes than any other team by far.

The big success of the Magic this year proves to you that as long as you are among the better three-point shooting teams, you should strongly consider firing away from beyond the arc. If you are well above average at making them, don’t be timid about trying them; you will be heavily rewarded if you are good at making them and you are not shy about trying them. The Nuggets are technically better at making threes this year than are the Magic, but they make only two thirds as many threes due to George Karl thinking that attempting a lot of them has to be a bad thing.

Losing Hedo Turkoglu did not adversely affect either the defense or the offense of the Magic. Generally speaking, the most important positions for winning playoff games are point guard and center. The Magic happen to have one of the best point guards, Jameer Nelson, and also one of the best centers, Dwight Howard.

THE WEST SITUATION: LAKERS REGAIN THE LEAD OVER THE NUGGETS
It was quite amazing when on February 2 it was seen that the Denver Nuggets had moved ahead of the Lakers by about six points. But as you can see above, the Lakers in the last month have moved past the Nuggets again and are now nine points ahead. You will see more about the Lakers in the Championship section not far below.

Although at the beginning of this season we intended to mostly cover the Celtics and the Cavaliers, that plan was scrapped when the Nuggets pulled more rabbits out of more hats. We just can not shake these Nuggets no matter how hard we try; the Nuggets are the gift that keeps on giving for a site that has adopted explaining how basketball is won and lost as mission one. For one thing, the Nuggets keep winning a very large number of regular season games and yet they continue to have a complete inability to win the most important games in the playoffs. By figuring out and explaining why, we are making major progress in our mission.

Quite honestly, for everything we actually have time to do here at Quest, there are half a dozen or more things we pledged to do but never have time to do. The yearly Production Plan has become more and more of a joke. But at least the broad outline of the editorial plan survives the rock and roll month to month progress of our project. At least we don't ever drop our adopted focus on the playoffs and especially on the Championship. And we never will, because once you start focusing on the most important games, you don't ever want to go back to those meaningless games involving the Grizzlies or the Timberwolves, laugh out loud.

For the second straight year (or the third straight if you count acquiring Iverson in December 2007) the Nuggets produced stars or at least near stars out of thin air. This year, Arron Afflalo is playing far, far better than he did for the Pistons last year. And the Timberwolves foolishly let drafted point guard Ty Lawson (think young Allen Iverson without the drama) go to Denver for a song. Even before the arrivals of Afflalo and Lawson, the Nuggets already had superstar point guard Chauncey Billups and somewhere between good role player and superstar J.R. Smith (who knows anymore, laugh out loud). The four of those players together constitute one of the very best 4-guard rosters around this year (most probably the best) and probably the best such roster in the history of the Nuggets.

If Smith could be at the higher end of his huge possible range and if Afflalo keeps hitting threes at a miracle rate and keeps defending like there is no tomorrow, this group of four guards could be enough not only to scare the Lakers but to actually defeat them if it were not for the huge problem the Nuggets have created for themselves in the paint defensively. See any of three recent Reports for extensive details of the Nuggets' defensive mess.

Looking at it pessimistically on the other hand though, Ty Lawson at the moment is out indefinitely with a bruised shoulder. And J.R. Smith sometimes seems these days like he might at any moment become one of the worst 2-guards in history. (Contrary to popular belief, this was not always so, laugh out loud.) Further, the idea of Arron Afflalo being a 45% three point shooter in the playoffs may be nothing more than fantasy. Moreover, does Chauncey Billups run a world class pro basketball offense that has a little bit of organization to it? No he does not. For all of these reasons, even the Nuggets' "guard miracle" might fizzle out before the fat lady sings this year.

If the guard miracle does in fact fizzle, and given the Nuggets' defensive mess that George Karl refuses to even recognize let alone solve, the Nuggets could be left with a quick second or even first round exit this year. The other day I was thinking, for example, that if the Nuggets finish third seed and have to play a sixth seed Phoenix Suns, they could easily lose to the Suns who for one thing will not be at any disadvantage at all from the Nuggets' pushing the pace because they push the pace even more so than the Nuggets.

Owner Marc Cuban of the Mavericks tried at the trade deadline to give his team a major shot in the arm after they tanked badly in the second half of December and in January. They lost about as many games as they won during that time and that constitutes tanking if you are a team that really wants to and theoretically might possibly be able to go to the Championship. Marc Cuban by the way, to his credit, actively tries these days to help his team more so than any other owner, and you have to much respect that.

Five days before the deadline, the Mavericks traded Josh Howard, Drew Gooden, James Singleton, and Quinton Ross to Washington for 2-guard / small forward Caron Butler, who has generally been a star during eight seasons, center Brendan Haywood, who has been at least a solid starter and close to a star during nine seasons, and 2-guard DeShawn Stevenson, who was poor in 2008-09 but a role player the year before, and cash considerations.

Stevenson will seldom play because both Butler and Jason Terry are much better.

Butler is a very nice and very important pick-up, but Haywood may actually be more important since the Mavericks already had good guard shooting and plenty of outside shooting thanks to power forward and historical superstar Dirk Nowitzki before the trade. My opinion was always that starting center Erick Dampier was (a) overrated by the Mavericks and (b) not good enough to enable the Mavs to win a Ring, especially since Dirk Nowitzki ranges in and out of the paint both on offense and defense, creating a big need for a star, stay at home paint defender at center. Dampier is at best a solid starter and it seems unlikely he will ever be a star in the playoffs. He was badly beaten by the Nuggets last spring.

Sure enough, the Mavericks now consider Haywood to be the starting center and Dampier to be the reserve. This is a bigger upgrade for the Mavericks than many will think. But on the other hand it remains doubtful that Haywood will be good enough in the paint, in conjunction with Nowitzki, Dampier, and reserve power forwards Tim Thomas and Eduardo Najera to enable Dallas to tangle with the awesome front court of the Lakers. Beating the Nuggets in a playoff series this year, though, has once again doable for the up and down Mavericks, who are up again right now and gaining on the Nuggets.

It could end up being the Jazz instead of the Mavericks, though, who challenge the Nuggets for second in the West. Why? Because the Jazz are cranking so well that they are even winning on the road these days; maybe Jerry Sloan is not too old after all. And meanwhile the Mavericks all of a sudden have significant injury problems:

--Reserve but important power forward Tim Thomas is apparently out for the season for family reasons. Thomas has been caring for his wife who has been suffering from serious health issues. But as discussed, the Mavericks need every good paint defender they can get.

--Reserve but very important center Erick Dampier has been out since February 17 due to a finger dislocation. He is due back by mid March, however.

--Star 2-guard Jason Terry, who now along with Caron Butler forms what is probably the best 2-guard tandem in the League, took an elbow to the face March 3 against the Timberwolves but managed to return to the game. But he will soon have surgery to repair a broken orbital bone and will be out until probably late March or early April. But like with O’Neal in Cleveland, this would have been much worse if it had happened a month later.

The rest of the injury situation in the West is that the Denver Nuggets and the moving up from the outside Utah Jazz are currently injury free.

For the Lakers, as mentioned earlier, sometimes just satisfactory and sometimes good role player Sasha Vujacic has been out since February 19. Vujacic is not expected to return until late March after suffering a grade one shoulder sprain on his right shoulder. He still can't raise his right arm and isn't allowed to shoot yet. Also, Luke Walton, who is a good to major role player who backs up Ron Artest at small forward, has been out since February 19 due to a pinched nerve in the back. When Walton will return is quite uncertain, though it seems probably he will be available for the Lakers’ Championship run. His goal is still to get back for the playoffs and then after the playoffs make a decision about surgery.

All in all, the Lakers’ injury situation is not really that bad because Jordan Farmar can sub in for Vujacic quite well and because the Lakers practically don’t need Walton given how much massive firepower they have in the front court.

THE 2010 CHAMPIONSHIP
Let's first briefly summarize how this season's Championship projections have gone. For the Championship projection we are back where we started. At the beginning of the season and again right now we think the Cavaliers will meet the Lakers in the 2010 Championship and we think the Lakers will win the series 4-3. (4-2 would not be a surprise.) But the Cavaliers got off to such a stumbling start and the Boston Celtics got off to such an extremely strong start in November that we switched our prediction to Lakers 4 Celtics 2 for the 2010 Championship in December. Then the Celtics stumbled and the Cavaliers surged in the second half of December and in January, so the next change was to Cavaliers 4 Lakers 3 which was the projection from mid January until the end of February. When the Lakers vanquished the Nuggets 95-89 in an historical come from behind victory on February 28 in LA, we switched the Championship prediction to back where it started: Lakers 4 Cavaliers 3.

The Cavaliers have about a ten point Real Team Rating lead over the Los Angeles Lakers for the 2010 Championship. However, the Lakers could end up with home court advantage and they definitely have a coaching advantage that could easily be worth about 15 or even points. Lakers Coach Phil Jackson has been working very hard recently to get the Lakers tuned up for the coming playoffs. For example, Jackson recently correctly determined that the easiest way to beat the Nuggets is to over weight plays into the paint in order to take advantage of the Nuggets' poor paint defending.

Jackson and the Lakers have, at least since their second round series against the Rockets last spring, been taking their sweet time to determine and implement winning strategies against good teams they have to beat to win a Ring. But there is a big, big difference between being a little slow to figure out how to win and never being able to figure it out at all. Bet against Phil Jackson at your own risk; we think Jackson and his Lakers will be able to contain LeBron by just enough to get his 11th Ring, while Kobe Bryant will get his 5th.

Prior to now, we were thinking the Lakers would lose in the 2010 Championship because:

--The Lakers had poor guard play (other than Kobe Bryant)
--Phil Jackson didn't seem to know how to beat the Nuggets with their improbably jam packed with raw talent lineup yet
--Pau Gasol had serious injury problems
--Except for Kobe, the Lakers offense in general and passing game in particular was lagging. The defense was top notch but the offense was sagging pretty badly.

All of these things have been improving or are completely resolved with the possible exception of the first. One of the potentially better Laker guards, Sasha Vujacic, is now out indefinitely due to a sprained shoulder and that certainly does not help matters in the LA back court. But Kobe Bryant is certainly capable of making up for a back court that is poor to fair except for him. He's that good whether or not he is quite the all time best guard, which is debatable.

Remember, the Championship has a unique home court pattern. Instead of 2-2-1-1-1, the pattern is 2-3-2. This means that the team which has home court advantage can win the series at home either in game six or in game seven. The team without home court advantage in the Championship will often have to win the series on the road since the majority of Championships go for six or seven games. In order for the team that does not have home court advantage to win the series at home, they would have to win either game one or game two on the road and then win all three straight games home (games three through five). Home court advantage in the NBA playoffs is worth slightly more than home court advantage in the other series as a result of this oddity. Even if the team with the advantage loses one of the first two games, it will usually be very unlikely that it will lose three straight on the road, so at worse it will be 3-2 in favor of the other team when the series returns to the building of the team with the home court advantage. So the team with the advantage can still win the series in that scenario by winning games six and seven at home.

Should Cleveland get home court advantage, we are predicting that the Lakers will win one of the two games in Cleveland or, less likely will lose them but then win all three in LA and then win the Ring in either game six or game seven in Cleveland. Should LA get home court advantage, we are predicting that LA will win both of the first two games and then one of the three straight games in Cleveland, leaving them with the relatively easy task of winning either game six or game seven in LA. In short, we think the series is going to be close but we think the Lakers will have enough to prevail against LeBron James and the Cavaliers.

We could be wrong and this is not a guarantee of any kind. Injuries can and often do make projections such as this completely off. We just do these projections for the how the Quest is won information value of them.

THE ALL IMPORTANT, AWARD WINNING USER GUIDE
For complete details regarding how the Real Team Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide.

The Denver Nuggets' 2008-09 Defense and Michael Jackson: Gone Too Soon

2010-03-02T20:53:00.000-08:00

A Championship team needs to have a tough paint defense unless it happens to be one of the best two or three offenses in the history of basketball and even then you would not want the paint defense to be poor but close to average at the least. For one thing, easy scores in the paint tend to demoralize players (and coaches and fans) on the receiving end.

George Karl and the Nuggets are violating this clear and enduring principal this year by in effect saying they can challenge for a Ring without caring much about a leaky paint defense.

But any team serious about the Quest for the Ring needs to do everything possible to keep the points it allows in the paint at 40 or less per game. A fast paced team can maybe get away with exactly 40 paint points per game whereas a slow paced team needs to keep it below 38 or so. All teams regardless of pace that are trying to win the Ring more so with defense than offense must keep points in the paint allowed to 37.5 or less per game. All teams serious about trying to win the Quest more so with defense are going to be medium or slow paced teams; it is basically impossible to run a fast pace on offense and have a serious chance of winning a Ring more with defense than with offense. The faster the pace you run on offense, the less opportunity you have to succeed with a tough defense.

The gold standard for paint defense is 36 points given up in the paint per game (or even less). The abysmal standard is 45 points or more points given up in the paint per game. Face it: if you give up more than 45 points in the paint per game, you are not even trying to defend the paint.

Here is how the teams currently rank:

POINTS GIVEN UP IN THE PAINT PER GAME
2009-10 REGULAR SEASON
As of March 2 2010
1 Cleveland Cavaliers 35.8
2 Orlando Magic 36.1
3 Detroit Pistons 36.8
4 Milwaukee Bucks 37.6
5 Boston Celtics 37.8
6 Miami Heat 37.9
7 Indiana Pacers 38.3
8 Chicago Bulls 39.5
9 Charlotte Bobcats 39.6
10 Utah Jazz 39.8
11 Washington Wizards 40.5
12 Los Angeles Lakers 40.7
13 Dallas Mavericks 41.3
14 San Antonio Spurs 41.6
15 Portland Trail Blazers 41.6
16 Los Angeles Clippers 42.1
17 Toronto Raptors 42.3
18 Philadelphia 76ers 42.7
19 Oklahoma City Thunder 43.1
20 Denver Nuggets 43.5
21 Phoenix Suns 43.7
22 Minnesota Timberwolves 43.8
23 Atlanta Hawks 44.1
24 Houston Rockets 44.3
25 New Orleans Hornets 44.5
26 New Jersey Nets 44.7
27 Sacramento Kings 45.6
28 New York Knicks 46.4
29 Golden State Warriors 46.6
30 Memphis Grizzlies 48.4

The Nuggets, who have been victimized in the paint more and more as this season has progressed, as the other teams realize that Denver is not defending the paint well like they did last year, are now averaging 43.5 points given up in the paint per game versus 38.4 points last year. Remember, what may seem like a small difference like this means big changes in whether a team can really win the NBA Championship or not.

The Nuggets have flipped from being a tough in the paint team last year to a soft in the paint team, something which they could largely avoid if they played expert paint defender Renaldo Balkman for at least as many minutes as they did last year, which was 780 minutes in the regular season but, however, virtually zero minutes in the playoffs. Playing without Balkman’s tough paint defending and great defensive rebounding against Dallas in the West semifinal was not enough to sink Denver but it was enough to help ruin Denver in the West final, and the same thing or worse is destined to happen this year.

Defending the paint means, to name the most important things:

--You deny offensive rebounds by very good or better defensive rebounding. Your team boxes out and fights for all rebounds continuously and aggressively.

--You have very good or better man to man defending close to the hoop.

--You are not doing so much switching due to screens and pick and rolls that the big men who can defend the paint end up out of the paint guarding guards while a small forward or a guard is left with the near impossible task of preventing a score in the paint by a center or power forward. Instead of over switching all the time, your big men need to often fight through screens and fight to stay with the opponent’s big men.

--Guards almost by definition are just minor factors with respect to paint defense. Even small forwards are often relatively minor factors. Defending the paint is primarily a job for power forwards and centers. So to defend well in the paint, you can not make the big mistake of playing guards for too many minutes and centers and power forwards for too few minutes. Size is crucial in basketball; every inch counts.

For most teams, you want to have the total minutes played by centers and power forwards add up to more than 96 (the length of a game, 48 minutes, times two positions). The optimal number of minutes depends on how good the players at the different positions are, but almost always you will need to have power forwards and centers play at a rock bottom minimum a combined 101 minutes per game and, in many, many cases they should play 106-116 minutes a game. Any coach who thinks he is going to win a lot of playoff games while having always exactly two power forwards and centers in the game and never three of them is very unlikely to be successful.

As you might suspect, George Karl is doing this: he is refusing to play three power forwards and centers at once for even a tiny number of minutes a game. He did play three of them at once for a few minutes a game last year, which was quite surprising and unusual. But this year, as a result of inadequate center and power forward minutes, not only is George Karl not defending the paint well, he is also not taking advantage of a good opportunity to add some extra disruption and confusion for the opponent’s offense. Playing three power forwards and centers at once is a little bit like a power play in hockey.

Phil Jackson is typically playing three power forwards / centers at once for 6-12 minutes per game.

NOTES ABOUT CERTAIN OTHER TEAMS
First, notice an obvious but important generality: roughly speaking, the worst teams in the League give up the most points in the paint and vice versa. There are a small number of exceptions from time to time.

Notice that even though the Lakers overall this year are outstanding on defense (they have just about the best defensive efficiency) they are slightly over the recommended points in the paint maximum. But this is illusory, because Pau Gasol, the most important Lakers paint defender, has missed just about 18 games this season. The Lakers are definitely under 40 points per game surrendered in the paint as long as Pau Gasol is in there and as long as Coach Phil Jackson keeps reminding them to defend the paint well. Having said that, the Lakers, like the Nuggets, do seem to be emphasizing perimeter defense more and paint defense less. But they are doing both at a higher level than are the Nuggets.

What about Nuggets’ injuries? Kenyon Martin and Chris Andersen have missed a very small number of games. Small forward Carmelo Anthony has missed some games but he is definitely not a great or even a good paint defender which by the way is another indirect reason for why Balkman absolutely must play or the Nuggets are toast.

Notice that the Celtics, who won the Quest in 2008 with, you guessed it, a fierce in the paint and overall defense, have not, unlike the Nuggets, abandoned tough paint defending. However, the Celtics have their hands full to say the least in the East Conference, because both the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Orlando Magic (the two teams which are Boston’s main rivals to win the East this year) have extremely good paint defending this year, substantially better than that of the Celtics. Always remember that small differences in numbers translate into big differences on the court in terms of win potential in the playoffs.

We can also look at a related view: the percentage of all points given up that are given up in the paint. This indirectly corrects for pace, whereas the straight up points per game in the paint is slightly biased against fast paced teams such as the Nuggets. Could it be that the Nuggets have been getting a bum rap from Quest for the Ring on this subject?

Let’s compare the teams in percentage of all points given up that are given up in the paint. In other words, we are looking at, in effect, how important a team thinks paint defending is, and/or we are looking at how strong the paint defense is relative to the defense as a whole.

POINTS GIVEN UP IN THE PAINT AS A PERCENTAGE OF ALL POINTS GIVEN UP
2009-10 REGULAR SEASON
As of March 2 2010
1 Indiana Pacers 0.3683
2 Cleveland Cavaliers 0.3757
3 Orlando Magic 0.3772
4 Detroit Pistons 0.3802
5 Milwaukee Bucks 0.3868
6 Miami Heat 0.3989
7 Washington Wizards 0.3990
8 Boston Celtics 0.4008
9 Chicago Bulls 0.4010
10 Toronto Raptors 0.4013
11 Utah Jazz 0.4078
12 Phoenix Suns 0.4123
13 Minnesota Timberwolves 0.4124
14 Dallas Mavericks 0.4189
15 Charlotte Bobcats 0.4199
16 Los Angeles Clippers 0.4202
17 Golden State Warriors 0.4213
18 Los Angeles Lakers 0.4235
19 Philadelphia 76ers 0.4236
20 Denver Nuggets 0.4240
21 San Antonio Spurs 0.4302
22 Sacramento Kings 0.4326
23 Houston Rockets 0.4365
24 Portland Trail Blazers 0.4370
25 New Orleans Hornets 0.4393
26 New York Knicks 0.4419
27 New Jersey Nets 0.4430
28 Oklahoma City Thunder 0.4490
29 Atlanta Hawks 0.4537
30 Memphis Grizzlies 0.4699

OK, now we have proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that Denver is, whether they know it or not, packing it in with regard to paint defense, because they rank exactly the same (20th) in percentage of points given up that are given up in the paint as they do in straight up points given up in the paint per game.

With respect to winning the Quest, on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is the least important thing to do and 10 is the most important thing to do, paint defense is somewhere between an 8 and a 10. You most definitely do not want to be below average on anything that is extremely important for winning the Quest.

So the Nuggets are cruising for a bruising, yet all they have to do to shore up the paint defense is increase Chris Andersen and Renaldo Balkman minutes by a combined 24-30 minutes per game. If they did this, they would most likely improve to where they could really challenge the Lakers this year. But right now, the Nuggets have guard overkill going. They have two truly outstanding young guards in Ty Lawson and Arron Afflalo and of course they have superstar Chauncey Billups at the point.

Given the fact that 2-guard J.R. Smith has fallen off pretty badly this year, as by the way Quest thought would probably happen sooner or later if he was treated as a black sheep instead of as a valuable starter, the Nuggets could easily take away some playing time from Smith and not lose anything on the guard front. Further, there is essentially zero reason for reserve point guard Anthony Carter to be playing at all since the Nuggets have three truly outstanding guards along with the potentially outstanding J.R. Smith. Whenever Carter plays, who simply due to age alone can not compete with Afflalo, Lawson, or even Smith, the Nuggets are shooting themselves in the foot. Steven Graham isn't even worth discussing.

A FEW NOTES ABOUT CERTAIN OTHER TEAMS
So far this year (it won’t change much between now and the end of the season) the Indiana Pacers are most dedicated to and/or most able to defend the paint whereas the Memphis Grizzlies are the least. You know those Grizzlies, always screwing up somehow, laugh out loud.

The Cavaliers and the Magic are just behind the Pacers at the top of the paint defending heap. The Celtics are just far enough behind those two teams to have a problem that they had better deal with in some way, since despite superstar point guard Rajon Rondo the Celtics are going to be depending at least as much on defense as on offense in this year’s playoffs. In other words, the Celtics are doing very well at defending the paint, but they probably have to do even better if they want to be in the NBA Final this year.

Notice that if you look closely you can often see evidence of major injuries when you break something like this down. For example, the Portland Trailblazers are 15th in points given up per game and 24th in percentage of points given up that are in the paint. This tells you that although the Trailblazers play at a very slow pace and keep their points per game given up fairly low as a result, they are actually getting killed in the paint, which is obviously due to several major injuries to some of their best forwards and centers. Portland, like Denver, has flipped from being a fairly good paint defense team to a poor one, but in Portland’s case this is due to injuries whereas in Denver’s case this is due to poor player minutes allocation.

Another interesting thing to observe is that the Atlanta Hawks, because they have a really bad paint defense, even worse than Denver’s, seem destined this year to be defeated fairly easily no later than the East semifinal round (2nd round of the playoffs). This is especially true given that Boston and especially Cleveland and Orlando all have outstanding paint defenses.

For more details of this whopper of a Nuggets mistake that we have been understandably focused on since early December, see any or all of these Reports:

--Shocking but True: the Denver Nuggets are Better than the Lakers but can they beat the Lakers in the 2010 Playoffs?

--George Karl is Losing Home Court Advantage due to not Defending the Paint

--The Denver Nuggets have Defensive Problems and the Solution is Sitting on the Bench

DENVER NUGGETS HANDLED IN THE PAINT THE LAST 2 GAMES
The Nuggets just dropped two straight important games. On Sunday February 28 against the Lakers themselves in Los Angeles, Phil Jackson figured this paint defense thing (and more) out at halftime and, after a shaky first half, the Lakers dominated in the second half and defeated the Nuggets 95-89. The Lakers scored 50 points in the paint! That’s five-oh, brother man! This means the Lakers owned the Nuggets in the paint and it also means that the Lakers were intentionally running extra plays into the paint because they knew for a certainty that the Nuggets’ paint defense is not what it was last year and is simply not good enough.

We like to say that LA Coach Phil Jackson is one of the few basketball people who does not need to check out Quest for the Ring because he knows everything we know and more. So it is doubtful Jackson figured out how to beat the Nuggets by reading the Quest. Still, Quest is hot like fire and, after last year’s horrible wild ride that might have ended up in total destruction (see the Darth Vader Series) this year is going along quite well indeed so far.

Although the next night the Nuggets were back to back road in Phoenix, the Suns were also back to back, having played on Sunday themselves in San Antonio (where they lost by a little bit). So both teams were back to back. Once again, the Nuggets got off to a strong start early. But it took the Suns just one quarter to learn how to turn things around big time against the Nuggets, and by halftime the Suns were leading the Nuggets 57-44. In the second half, the Nuggets, and this was surprising even to me, never mounted a serious challenge and lost the game 101-85. The Suns scored 44 points against the Nuggets in the paint although in fairness the explosive Suns average 44.6 points in the paint offensively.

The Lakers offensively average 45.1 points per game in the paint, so if you think you are going to beat them or even just compete closely with them in a series with a lame paint defense (with for example too many guard minutes and not enough power forward / center minutes) you have another thing coming.

Oh well, we can cry the blues for those wayward Nuggets, laugh out loud….

THE NUGGETS 2008-09 DEFENSE: GONE TOO SOON

Darth Vader Sets out to Destroy The Quest for the Ring, Part Three

2010-02-23T10:16:00.000-08:00

EDITORIAL ADVISORY
As promised in the prequel to this review of the only Quest Report in history to be declared to be in error after publication, we are now going to go over each of the sixteen reasons given in that Report for why the Denver Nuggets were supposedly, definitely not going to win any playoff series in 2009. They did win a series, and we actually can see why if we find out that somehow Darth and the Nuggets avoided most of these sixteen things from happening.

The idea from that January 14 Report that turned out to be very wrong was that although not all of the 16 things would go wrong for the Nuggets in the playoffs, enough of them would go wrong that the Nuggets would fail to win a series. Technically, the Nuggets were not supposed to win more than two playoff games; whereas they actually won ten.

Reasons one through six were already covered in Part One. Reasons seven through ten were covered in Part Two. This part, part three will cover reasons eleven through sixteen. A summary and conclusion for the incident of the incorrect Report will be in a Part Four. In that part, the error will be reviewed one last time and we will summarize all of the corrections and all of the measures taken so that nothing of this sort ever happens again.

Later, another companion series, consisting of either two or three parts, will look at the same sixteen factors and see if they caused the Nuggets loss to the best team of the West in 2009: the Lakers.

INTRODUCTION
If you don't know already from reading this previous Report, George Karl and probably some unknown cronies of his are the Darth Vader of basketball, laugh out loud. Just as in the movies, old Darth can really do some unexpected damage and put a lot of fear into the atmosphere when he gets lucky with one of his diabolical schemes.

REASON ELEVEN WHY THE NUGGETS WERE TO NOT WIN ANY PLAYOFF SERIES
The opponent will overweight three point shooting even more so than is ordinarily the case in the playoffs. Do not expect you can beat the Nuggets without bothering with a three point game anymore. You can’t do that anymore both because the Nuggets are more aggressively defending the paint than in recent years and because the Nuggets themselves now have a three point game for the first time in many years, although it is too early to say whether they will still have a good three point game in the playoffs.

HOW REASON ELEVEN PLAYED OUT
Well, of course we check the Mavericks’ three pointers:

MAVERICKS THREES
Game One: 6/18: 33.3%
Game Two: 8/23: 34.8%
Game Three: 5/15: 33.3%
Game Four: 3/14: 21.4%
Game Five: 12/34: 35.3%
Series Overall: 34/104: 32.7%
Series Overall per Game: 6.8/20.8

This reason did not at all play out; Dallas was a very bad three-point shooting team in this series. The teams that can win rings are usually going to be in the high 30’s in terms of percentage of threes made. But in the regular season, the Mavericks shot exactly 35% from 3-point land, and there were only five teams that were worse than this.

The absolute minimum made threes percentage to stand a chance in a playoff series is probably about 35%. You need to make at least 38% of threes to make the three a weapon for winning a series and you need to make at least 40% of threes to make the three a big factor in your winning. When you are not a good 3-point shooting team, you are more disadvantaged in the playoffs than in the regular due to the ramped up paint defense in the playoffs.

Although the Mavericks allowed the Nuggets way of defending to shake their confidence and concentration enough so that they missed some threes that they normally would make, do not forget that overall the Mavericks had a good shooting percentage during the series. I guess this shows you that a team must be especially confident and loose to be able to make a lot of threes. When the going gets tough, it is probably time to scale back the 3-point shooting.

How about the Nuggets, though?

NUGGETS THREES
Game One: 4/12: 33.3%
Game Two: 8/28: 28.6%
Game Three: 6/15: 40.0%
Game Four: 9/21: 42.9%
Game Five: 11/26: 42.3%
Series Overall: 38/102: 37.3%
Series Overall per Game: 7.6/20.4

So there you have it, the Nuggets achieved the rock bottom minimum 35% while the Mavericks did not. The Nuggets did this with one hand tied behind their backs, since they had only three three-point shooters compared with the usual four or five on a playoff team. There was just Chauncey Billups, J.R. Smith, and Carmelo Anthony, who established a decent 3-point shot in 2008-09 for more or less the first time in his career.

Neither the Nuggets nor the Mavericks had enough good long shooters to make the tree a major weapon, but the Nuggets unlike the Mavericks avoided bad shooting from beyond the arc.

REASON TWELVE WHY THE NUGGETS WERE TO NOT WIN ANY PLAYOFF SERIES
The opponent will pass, pass, and pass some more, and get as many assists as they possibly can. The opponent will maintain its playmaking identity, meaning that the top two playmaking guards will be responsible for making at least 11-12 assists per game. Beating the Nuggets’ style of defending with effective playmaking is the easiest and most sure way of defeating them. The Nuggets amazing defensive enthusiasm and aggressiveness will melt in proportion to how well you beat them with effective passing and assisting.

HOW REASON TWELVE PLAYED OUT
We already saw in reason 10 that although the Mavericks shot well in the series, their passing game and assisting was lousy. So the scenario in this possible reason failed to happen.

Let’s check the playmaking identity, which concentrates on quality assists that are made mostly by playmakers: point guards and 2-guards who can make quality assists.

MAVERICKS’ PLAYMAKING IDENTITY
Game One: 17 assists in total; 8 playmaker assists
Game Two: 23 assists in total; 13 playmaker assists
Game Three: 15 assists in total; 7 playmaker assists
Game Four: 17 assists in total; 9 playmaker assists
Game Five: 23 assists in total: 10 playmaker assists

A true high quality offense makes at least 22 assists per game and 11 or more playmaker assists per game. The absolute minimal requirement to win the Quest in most cases is 21 assists or more per game and 10 or more playmaker assists per game. As you can see, the Mavericks had a high quality offense in just one game: game two. That was the game, you might recall, in which the Mavericks were down by just 3 points going into the fourth quarter, but then the Mavericks ran a very small lineup for much of the first half of the fourth quarter, which allowed the Nuggets to go on a devastating 16-2 run.

Notice that in game five, they were very close to a true high quality offense, but the series was considered a foregone conclusion before this game tipped, and both teams were playing looser, so it’s dubious to read too much into what happened in this game. In games one, three, and four, not only did the Mavericks not qualify as a true high quality offense, they didn’t even come close to the minimum assist and playmaker assist requirements to be in contention for a Ring in any of those three games.

As described in the previous reason, the Mavericks’ were intimidated by the Nuggets’ defense and by the fear of making a lot of turnovers into making the blunder of cutting back on their passing and assisting. The Mavericks’ coaches failed to motivate the Mavericks to not be so afraid of turnovers and to maintain enough passing and assisting so that they would not become too easy to defend and so they would stay in the flow of their offense.

Turnovers are basically the flip side of assists so let’s take the opportunity to check out them. The typical average turnovers per game for an NBA team are about 13.75. The Mavericks had 68 turnovers in the five games of the series: just 13.6 per game. But 20 of those turnovers were in game one, after which the Mavericks were intimidated, and they shot themselves in the foot by cutting back on ball movement and assisting. In the other four games, the Mavericks made only 12 turnovers per game, which was actually too low given how good the Nuggets were in forcing turnovers. The Mavericks sacrificed most of the extra quality in their offense just so they could make sure the Nuggets did not force a lot of turnovers off of them: a very poor deal. They overreacted to all the turnovers that occurred in game one. They pulled in their horns and hurt themselves badly by being too obsessed with “protecting the ball”.

On the whole, reason twelve did not become a reality.

REASON THIRTEEN WHY THE NUGGETS WERE TO NOT WIN ANY PLAYOFF SERIES
The opponent will try like heck to pass especially to anyone who can slip in behind the defense baseline and get the easy layup or dunk. This will cause the Nuggets to lose some of their aggressiveness even more quickly than will passing in general. Make sure your fastest, most elusive offensive players get plenty of playing time. The Nuggets can not foul or aggressively defend who they can not keep up with.

HOW REASON THIRTEEN PLAYED OUT
Unfortunately if you wanted the Nuggets to lose, the Mavericks had only one player who was able to sometimes escape the clutches of the Nuggets defense by being lightning quick: the small point guard Jose Juan Barea. Although Barea had a couple of great games, even he was shut down by the Nuggets in two other games.

Point guard Jason Kidd was relatively hobbled by the Nuggets defense. Eric Dampier had a nightmare of a series at center. 2-guard Jason Terry never got untracked and in any event is not quite a slashing enough type of guard to be the type of player I was thinking of for reason 13.

Josh Howard might have been the player who could have made reason 13 come true, but he was semi-injured and had a horrible series. Howard had only one good game: number four.

The only player who had a good series and who was hardly affected at all by the Nuggets’ schemes was, you probably already know, Dirk Nowitzki. If only Nowitzki and / or Coach Rick Carlisle had been able to rally the troops and get them to take their cue from Nowitzki’s fearlessness in the face of the Nuggets’ fearsome defense. Despite losing the series, the fact that Nowitzki was not in the least intimidated by the Nuggets speaks very well of his chances for eventually winning the Quest for the Ring.

REASON FOURTEEN WHY THE NUGGETS WERE TO NOT WIN ANY PLAYOFF SERIES
The opponent will not allow the Nuggets to rack up a huge advantage in free throw shooting. The Nuggets have been winning regular season games in part by becoming one of the best teams in the League at drawing fouls. Players on the opponent will be told to defend as well as possible, but to be careful about fouling, especially in the 1st half. The only exceptions to the try to go light on the fouling rule will be Chauncey Billups, Nene, and perhaps J.R. Smith, as previously discussed. Otherwise, see if previously unknown players such as Chris Andersen and Dahntay Jones can actually put the ball in the bucket instead of being bailed out by the refs all the time.

HOW REASON FOURTEEN PLAYED OUT
MAVERICKS-NUGGETS SERIES FREE THROWS
Game One: Free throws: Mavericks 9-13, Nuggets 25-36; Fouls Mavericks 29, Nuggets 19
Game Two: Free throws: Mavericks 23-30, Nuggets 31-40; Fouls Mavericks 28, Nuggets 20
Game Three: Free throws: Mavericks 40-49, Nuggets 32-40; Fouls Mavericks 27, Nuggets 34
Game Four: Free throws: Mavericks 36-43, Nuggets 32-44, Fouls Mavericks 29, Nuggets 29
Game Five: Free throws: Mavericks 22-29, Nuggets 17-22; Fouls Mavericks 22, Nuggets 25
Grand Total: Free throws: Mavericks 130-164, Nuggets 137-182; Fouls Mavericks 135 Nuggets 127

The Mavericks had 164 free throws and the Nuggets had 182, certainly a large advantage for the Nuggets but not huge. If you don’t count game five though (and the series was all but decided in four games) the Mavericks had 135 free throws and the Nuggets had 170, and that difference of 35 extra free throws is in fact huge.

The 2008-09 Nuggets will always be remembered as one of the greatest teams in history at drawing fouls. At the same time, the Mavericks’ defense was simply not good enough to defend the fast breaking and hard charging Nuggets without fouling too much. Later on, we shall see whether the Lakers were afflicted with the same problem the Mavericks had. I doubt they were, but we will find out.

As you can see, reason fourteen did not play out at all.

REASON FIFTEEN WHY THE NUGGETS WERE TO NOT WIN ANY PLAYOFF SERIES
The opponent will not make the mistake of losing track of players that no one ever heard of before such as Chris Andersen and Renaldo Balkman, who have been far, far better than anyone would have expected in the regular season so far. Players such as these can not defeat you as long as you don’t ignore them and lose track of them half the time. Just respect them, put decent defenders on them, and go at them offensively repeatedly, and they will be generally out of the way as a potential playoff series problem.

HOW REASON FIFTEEN PLAYED OUT
CHRIS ANDERSEN REAL PLAYER RATINGS AND +/- IN THE SERIES
Game One: 1.021 (historic super star) and plus minus of +28
Game Two: .864 (star player; well above normal starter) and plus minus of +24
Game Three: .397 (marginal role player) and plus minus of -1
Game Four: Did not play, injury or sick
Game Five: .410 (marginal role player) and plus minus of -5

RENALDO BALKMAN REAL PLAYER RATINGS AND +/- IN THE SERIES
Game One: Did not play, coach’s decision
Game Two: Did not play, coach’s decision
Game Three: Did not play, coach’s decision
Game Four: Did not play, coach’s decision
Game Five: Did not play, coach’s decision

The plus minus tells you how the score changed while the player was on the court. It is not really statistically valid and we very seldom use it, but since defending not kept track of by scorekeepers (which we call hidden defending) can not be calculated with our hidden defending adjustment system for an individual game the only thing available is the plus-minus. The plus minus will often but not always be a rough approximation for how well the player defended in a single game.

So you can see reason fifteen was a split decision. The Mavericks did not fail to keep track of Chris Andersen in games three in Dallas or in game five. But it was basically too late in game five so it was really just one game that the Mavs had Andersen under control. Andersen utterly decimated the Mavericks in both games one and two. In game one, Andersen was a full scale historical super star with a staggering +28 plus minus, which means he was totally the opposite of under control. He helped destroy the Mavericks in those first two games.

The Mavericks had no answer for Andersen, and you seldom have to use that expression for a non-starter. The Mavericks had to be aware that Andersen was a great player, but they underestimated how aggressive and explosive he could be if not treated as a star starter. Had the Mavericks treated Chris Andersen as if he was a high grade starter, they might have been able to steal one of the first two games in Denver and go on from there.

George Karl took care of the threat posed to the unsuspecting Mavericks by Renaldo Balkman by refusing to play him even though Balkman was virtually a star in 780 minutes during the regular season. It is interesting to note that in the current 2009-10 season, the fact that Balkman has not really played at all is considered the number one reason why the Nuggets are unlikely to defeat the Lakers in the 2010 West final (assuming both teams make it to there as currently expected).

Between Andersen and Balkman there were only two games when one of them was out of control (Andersen in games one and two). But Andersen was so far out of control that the Mavericks were badly hammered by Andersen and so reason fifteen did not play out as anticipated.

REASON SIXTEEN WHY THE NUGGETS WERE TO NOT WIN ANY PLAYOFF SERIES
The opponent will win one or more playoff games due to good offensive rebounding. Following the loss of Marcus Camby, the Nuggets have become vulnerable to extra aggressive offensive rebounding.

HOW REASON SIXTEEN PLAYED OUT
MAVERICKS / NUGGETS OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING IN THE SERIES
Game One: 10 / 5
Game Two: 9 / 12
Game Three: 11 / 13
Game Four: 9 / 6
Game Five: 9 / 12
SERIES TOTAL: 48 / 48
Per Game: 9.6 / 9.6

For offensive rebounding, the scale for it varies according to how many missed shots are available in a game, but in many games the gold standard is 12 or more offensive rebounds and the usual minimum below which you can say the team had poor offensive rebounding is 10. As you can see, the Mavericks did not have great offensive rebounding in any of the five games, whereas the Nuggets had great offensive rebounding in games two, three, and five. (Usually, great offensive rebounding means valuable second chance points have been scored.)

In the regular season the Nuggets were just very slightly above average in defensive rebounding, but the Mavericks were unable to parlay that into good or great offensive rebounding as reason sixteen anticipated. So reason 16 failed: the Mavericks failed to win a single game due to good or great offensive rebounding.

We conclude the review of the infamous sixteen reasons the Nuggets were supposed to lose for the Mavericks-Nuggets series in Part Four.

Shocking but True: the Denver Nuggets are Better than the Lakers but can they beat the Lakers in the 2010 Playoffs?

2010-02-19T10:16:00.000-08:00

I have been totally buried with work other than basketball last week and this week but I had to put a freeze on all of that to write this very important Report on the remarkable situation that has developed over the last several weeks. I mean, this is practically an emergency if you are dedicated to who wins the NBA Championship and why. It’s like if I was a physician, I have just been called into emergency duty in the middle of the night due to some calamity that has caused a lot of injuries. This is a totally unscheduled Report, so you know something big is up.

Even a month ago the 2010 NBA plot was getting unusually thick and now it’s extremely thick. You have as the most likely final four the extremely well managed and coached Los Angeles Lakers, the diabolical, incredibly lucky, and incredibly talented Denver Nuggets, the extremely talented but questionably coached and possibly too dependent on LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers, and the 2008 Quest winner Boston Celtics, who have been slowed down by one injury after another and in particular by Kevin Garnett taking far longer to fully recover from injury than anyone in Boston wanted. But of the four teams Boston has the best point guard by a good margin in Rajon Rondo (superstar, one ring). Point guard and center are the two most important positions for winning the Quest.

Chauncey Billups may be just as good a player as Rajon Rondo if not slightly better but strictly speaking Rajon Rondo is now a substantially better point guard, mostly because Rondo is more dedicated to the position whereas Chauncey Billups’ coach is less dedicated to the position to say the least so Billups has “less material to work with” from his coach than does Rondo.

The Celtics had in theory the upper hand over the Cavaliers until about the beginning of the year but now they look to be in trouble versus the Cavaliers even if they get completely healthy for the playoffs because:

--The Cavaliers are coming together big time; for one thing, they seem to have finally correctly integrated Shaquille O’Neil into their sets and defensively.

--The Cavaliers made a key trade just before the trading deadline, headlined by Antawn Jamison in and Zydrunas Ilgauskas out, which is a big net gain. There were, however, not a few who were disappointed that Cleveland did not pick up instead Amare Stoudemire from the unstable Phoenix Suns, who was the best player in the NBA according to the 2007-08 Quest for the Ring Real Player Ratings which, however, did not include the defensive adjustment and Stoudemire is not all that great defensively.

Yes, Stoudemire would have been the ultimate prize for Cleveland, which is defensively solid enough to take on Stoudemire’s defending and live to tell about it. And yes, Antawn Jamison is kind of old (34 in June) whereas Stoudemire is 27 and change. But Jamison is a big upgrade over Ilgauskas who practically fell off a cliff this year and the already high odds they will win the Ring this year have gone up after this trade so it is mission accomplished. Stoudemire would have been perfect and would have taken much more load off of LeBron James than Jamison does, but the main point remains mission accomplished for Cleveland. They now have a front court competitive with that of the Lakers and probably better than that of the Celtics unless Garnett returns to 100%.

--Cleveland’s front depth is about to get still deeper with the return of one of the most underrated power forwards in basketball from summer knee surgery: Leon Powe.

The very thick 2010 plot also features a wild card Dallas Mavericks team that has practically fallen apart just after they seemed poised to overtake the Nuggets. That seems like such a long, long time ago now even though it was only about six weeks ago; what the hell happened to your team, Rick Carlisle?

The other, far stronger wild card possibility is the Magic, who will most likely just like last year beat the Celtics if the Celtics can not shake the injury bug before the playoffs, but like Denver most likely do not have enough to contend with the more monstrous than ever Cavaliers.

So as of now it looks like LeBron James will get his ring after all (which is where we started the year with but it’s been a wild ride back to the starting point) and it also looks like it will be Cleveland that gets it’s first ring and not Denver, even if Denver is actually in the Championship playing Cleveland, which is believe it or not a real Championship possibility.

And you and for sure I thought last year was as interesting as things ever get, laugh out loud. Now I know for sure that anyone who thinks I’m silly for doing basketball instead of politics and economics all the time is wrong.

Ten years from now we will probably look back on 2009 and especially on 2010 and say something like “Those were years that make basketball playoffs worth watching and worth writing about. And those were years that gave Quest for the Ring a huge shot in the arm.” To say that these two years provide exactly the kind of subject matter Quest for the Ring needs to learn and report on the high level secrets of who wins Championships and why is an understatement. Thick plots and unique characters (I’m looking at you, George Karl, laugh out loud) allow you to dig out the secrets a lot faster than otherwise.

Even in my dreams I never imagined there would be so much going on in one year. We’ll be breaking 2010 down extensively for a year and from time to time for years to come so as to efficiently discover previously unknown things about how playoff games and Championships are won and lost. In a word, Quest struck gold both in 2009 and especially now in 2010. Had I wrote what is actually happening as a fiction book no one would believe the plot.

The Nuggets are now clearly and definitely better than the Lakers and they are supposed to defeat the Lakers in this year’s West final. Yes, you heard that right, in theory the Denver Nuggets should defeat the Los Angeles Lakers this year. They have everything they need to win and they have moved substantially ahead of the Lakers in Real Team Rating which is designed to reveal who the real best teams are. We have the Cavaliers as the best and the Nuggets as not far behind.

In a Report in the near future, I will go into more detail about exactly how the Nuggets pulled rabbits out of hats talent wise for the second year in a row.

Alright, now everyone pause, take a few deep breaths, and maybe take a short walk. Get calm somehow.

Ok, I’m back from walking around the block (damn that dog who likes George Karl which almost bit my leg off; I’ve got ice on the wound).

But hold the phones! There are a couple of major things that Real Team Ratings leave out (besides injuries, which of course are almost totally unpredictable so we hardly ever even discuss those). You have home court advantage and coaching. What we seem to be seeing this year is that those two things sometimes are essentially the same thing.

There are two main reasons why the Lakers are ahead of the Nuggets right now by four games in the loss column. It just changed this evening from five to four, so there goes the plot getting thicker again. The Lakers probably still have enough of a lead to ensure they will squeak into the playoffs with home court locked up in the West over the Nuggets (but it will be very tight and the Lakers could possibly lose home court to the Nuggets by the end of the regular). First, Kobe Bryant has hit at least three (is it actually four? I’m not sure.) buzzer beaters to change Lakers losses into wins. Second, meanwhile, George Karl has been losing games to bad teams mostly because he has reverted to his traditional short, often inadequate 8-man rotation and also because he has reverted to his more or less traditional over reliance on guards and under reliance on forwards. Last year he was like a new man (and it was quite amazing and I was left sort of speechless, which is very rare laugh out loud) but now this year he is back to those two really bad habits.

The Nuggets have lost a number of games simply because they were badly beaten in the paint by bad and mediocre at best teams because Karl ran an extremely unbalanced lineup with way too many guard minutes and way too few forward minutes. As you review the following, keep in mind that in a regular season game against an inferior opponent good paint defense is less than 40 points given up in the paint and great point defense is less than 35 points given up in the paint. Anytime a team gives up 40 or more points in the paint to a poor team, this is not good. A tried and tested and relatively easy way to make sure you don’t lose to a bad team is to make sure the paint is defended well, simply because bad teams usually don’t have enough players who can make enough outside shots to beat you.

If you can’t defend the paint well despite being a much better team, you are leaving the door open for that inferior team to upset you, which is exactly what George Karl did in these games by refusing to play proven solid paint defender and rebounder Renaldo Balkman. So stubborn was Karl that he refused to play Balkman regardless of injures (including to Carmelo Anthony and Kenyon Martin). When Anthony and Martin were out, the Nuggets were even more overweight guards than they were before, due to Karl still refusing to play Balkman even in those games.

GAMES THE NUGGETS COULD HAVE WON TO ENSURE HOME COURT OVER THE LAKERS
1. November 11: Bucks 108 Nuggets 102 in Milwaukee; Nuggets give up 40 points in the paint

2. November 20: Clippers 106 Nuggets 99 in Los Angeles; Nuggets give up 40 points in the paint.

3. November 29: Timberwolves 106 Nuggets 100 in Denver; Nuggets give up 44 points in the paint.

4. December 8: Bobcats 107 Nuggets 95 in Charlotte; Nuggets give up 42 points in the paint.

5. December 10: Pistons 101 Nuggets 99 in Detroit; Nuggets give up 40 points in the paint.

6. December 28: Kings 106 Nuggets 101 in Sacramento; Nuggets give up 46 points in the paint.

7. January 9: Kings 102 Nuggets 100 in Sacramento; Nuggets give up 46 points in the paint.

So there you have it: seven losses to mostly bad teams with one or two mediocre teams included in the mix. In not one of these games did the Nuggets give up fewer than 40 points in the paint. The Nuggets should have won rock bottom minimum four of those games and had they done so they would be exactly even with the Lakers in the loss column right now. Or, if Kobe missed a couple of those buzzer beaters and the Nuggets had won a measly three of the seven games above, the Nuggets would right now be ahead of the Lakers in the race for home court advantage. And there are other possible combinations, but you get the point: the Nuggets are still behind the Lakers in the standings and they definitely should not be.

Are the Nuggets really that lacking in the front court that they had to lose those games that way? Hardly so. Last year power forward Renaldo Balkman played 780 minutes for the Nuggets and this year he is playing during garbage time only. Balkman last year was at least as good as Kenyon Martin, he was not really all that far behind miracle pick-up for next to nothing Chris Andersen, and with very good paint defending and very good defensive rebounding helped the Nuggets to be the defensive powerhouse that they were. Instead of being rewarded he was benched this year by the always confounding George Karl.

So now the Nuggets are fairly light touches defensively in the paint. There are only about ten teams in the NBA who are worse in paint defense than the Nuggets at the moment. The situation is actually getting worse as it becomes common knowledge that the Nuggets big weakness is paint defending.

Certainly the Lakers are licking their chops at the thought of throwing Gasol, Bynum and Odom at Nene, Martin, and Andersen. The latter was not even in the League not so long ago yet was indisputably better than Martin both last year and this year. Yet due to Karl’s intransigence about players “of lesser stature” and / or of “lesser personalities,” Chris Andersen has not started a single solitary game (he is the J.R. Smith of the front court, laugh out loud) and he is playing only about 22 minutes a game! Talk about shooting yourself in the foot! No one disputes that Andersen is an outstanding player in the paint defensively and is not bad offensively either, and yet even Andersen is being shortchanged on playing time by Karl. If Andersen is that shortchanged, is it really such a surprise that Balkman does not play at all?

You almost wish that if Balkman never plays the Nuggets at least try the “hail Mary strategy” of a very high fouling rate. The Nuggets are currently 6th in fouls committed per game which is normally bad for a Championship team (you ideally want to be in the middle) but they could commit even more fouls and possibly partly make up for the absence of Balkman. They got some traction from doing that last year, after all; they seem to know how to maneuver in that particular territory. If the other team can’t hit free throws and / or if the referees are asleep at the switch, you have a chance to make up for not having enough to defend the paint in certain games if you foul early and often so to speak.

He probably doesn’t realize it, but when Carmelo Anthony wishes for a curtain call for last year’s Nuggets defense as he has several times in the last month, he is in effect really asking, just as Quest for the Ring is asking, for the return of Renaldo Blackman, because without Balkman the Nuggets simply don’t have enough manpower up front to prevent often embarrassing defensive lapses in the paint and weak rebounding.

Meanwhile, the Lakers, who I repeat for emphasis can in theory be defeated by the Nuggets (I honestly never thought I would be saying this by the way) view the business of winning playoff games and Championships quite a bit differently than Coach Karl, who has lost many more playoff games than he has won and who has never won a Championship, whereas Lakers Coach Phil Jackson has ten rings and has the best playoff coaching record of all time. The Lakers like to overweight forward minutes a little and would not be caught dead seriously underweighting forward /center playing time. Phil Jackson is one of the last coaches who would ever possibly make the mistake of playing too many guards for too many minutes and not enough forwards for not enough minutes.

Quest for the Ring is investigating to find out anything specifically explaining why Balkman is not playing at all. But when all is said and done, the reason is probably the same old combination of bad habits and false beliefs of George Karl. But if we find anything more to this, we will definitely report it.

Assuming Karl stubbornly continues to refuse to play Balkman (which is quite likely) the Nuggets will probably not defeat the Lakers in a seven game series. If you had to say right now, you would look for a seven game West final this year where the seventh game is in Los Angeles and the Nuggets lose that game.

So one of the thickest aspects of the very thick 2010 plot is the likelihood that George Karl is going to quite literally cost the Nuggets winning the West this year. Coaching is way more important than most NBA fans think it is, but it is relatively unusual for coaching to directly and clearly cost an extremely talented team a Championship appearance. But exactly how unusual it is we don’t yet know.

So the Lakers still retain a huge coaching advantage. The fascinating question now is whether the Nuggets have pulled so far ahead of the Lakers talent wise that they can beat the Lakers even with inferior coaching. While we do most definitely know as it stands now that the Nuggets are better than the Lakers, we do not yet know whether the huge coaching advantage the Lakers have over the Nuggets will offset that so that the Lakers can once again represent the West in the NBA finals. It seems to be razor close now, tight as a tick on a pig on a hot summer day, as Dan Rather used to say.

In summary, if and only if Balkman plays and he is at least almost as good as last year (which was on the border between solid starter and star) the Nuggets can theoretically defeat the Lakers. Had the Nuggets picked up a solid new forward or center before the trading deadline they could have had another option. Or obviously if George Karl had not vetoed the Ron Artest for Linas Kleiza trade almost two years ago, the Nuggets would be solid enough up front to definitely defeat the Lakers. But alas, Artest is on the Lakers and not on the Nuggets as he really should be (how ironic is that?). And there was also the Marcus Camby giveaway, something the Lakers would never do in a million years. Marcus Camby added to the existing Nuggets crew would definitely put them over the top versus the Lakers.

Given all of those missed opportunities, if and when the Nuggets blow it this year, no one will be able to say that they didn’t have a fair opportunity to win the Quest. Hell, I think they could possibly have won the Quest in 2008 as well; this team has had talent coming out of the woodwork for at least the last three years. No one put a gun to their heads as the Nuggets made decision after decision that weakened their paint defense and rebounding. No, the Nuggets are mismanaging real opportunities to win a Ring.

There is no Artest, no Camby, and no trade deadline pickup for the Nuggets. So what we are down to is this: Balkman plays and Andersen plays more and the Nuggets have a real chance to beat the Lakers in the 2010 playoffs. If not, the Lakers remain solid favorites to defeat the Nuggets even though we have mounting evidence that the Nuggets are actually the better team this year.

New and Important Features for Basketball Managers, Coaches, Fans, and Writers

2010-02-05T18:15:00.000-08:00

With the regular about half over, I thought I would give a rundown of recent goings on behind the scenes here at Quest for the Ring headquarters. Visitors to the Quest may think when there are no postings for two or three weeks that no work is being done on the site, but nothing could be farther from the truth. (Google may also think that but we know they are out of touch with their stuck in the 1990's search engine, don't we, laugh out loud).

We are usually, even when going a week or two without posting, working hard on perfecting features already deployed, on developing new features, and of course on preparing for future Reports.

Here are some highlights of recent work going on behind the scenes for high level basketball managers and watchers. Remember, there are dozens of other features here at Quest that have been developed long before these recent ones.

QUEST FOR THE RING LIVE GAME BLOGGING
We have changed our live game blogging host from Twitter to Tumblr. As with Twitter, the live game posts will appear not only on the new Quest Tumblr Page but also right on this home page, way down near the bottom of this page. So if you miss the live blogging as I would imagine most of you will, you can always come here to find out what upcoming Report previews were made and what lunacy transpired during the game. Remember, these live blogs are only 3/4 serious but raw and unedited, and 1/4 more or less lunacy. But I warn you, there is some truth hidden in some of the lunacy.

We live blogged a few games during 2009 at Twitter under the name "Questforthering". But Twitter turned out to be a big mistake. Apparently, Twitter is undercapitalized or has bad management, because they are actually stopping people from posting to their micro blogs if they make more than a few dozen postings in an hour. This is an unpublished "rule" which is apparently subject to change from day to day.

Keep in mind that you can only post up to 140 characters in a "tweet" at Twitter, roughly 30 words or so. And yet Twitter is cutting people off after roughly 50 tweets, or in other words after roughly 1,500 words, the size of a moderately long newspaper article. So Twitter has obviously become nothing more than a joke, and we are going to have nothing more to do with them.

We deleted the account. We were able to save some but not all of our Tweets, so technically this is the first time in history that an Internet site has been so badly managed that we lost content.

Please do yourself a favor and do not fall into the "Twitter trap". That site is garbage unless you are a celebrity, in which case no doubt you are never stopped from tweeting no matter how many tweets you make.

Just as Quest for the Ring is a lower traffic and sort of a secret site on the Internet, there are always such sites for every other possible application and subject. So we hunted for alternatives for Twitter and found numerous ones. For almost every subject, there are countless sites that are better than the site at the "top of the heap" traffic wise. Google these days is missing much of the internet, partly because of the size of the Internet and partly because Goolge policies heavily favor sites started before 2000.

We chose one of the most popular of the non-Twitter micro blog formats: Tumblr. Unfortunately, we don't have resources to do more than about one live game blog per month. Post links to Quest for the Ring if you want this site to get more traffic and get more production time assigned to it. (But there is an untouchable minimum production regardless of traffic which is more production than most other sites written by a very small staff.)

THE QUEST FOR THE RING TOOLBOX
The Quest Toolbox Site was recently improved dramatically and anyone can now go there and in a very short time calculate Real Player Ratings for anyone they have data for. About ten days ago, the embedded yet interactive spreadsheet (a true state of the art Internet application if there ever was one) was, like many state of the art things, not working correctly. But as of today, it is working fantastically. Try it, you will not be disappointed.

There is a Toolbox User Guide right there on the page.

THE QUEST FOR THE RING INJURIES MONITOR PAGE
It's considered rude to say it, but the truth is that injuries or the lack of them often decide who wins playoff games (and regular season games).

All sports sites run by large corporations and a few run by a small number of medium sized corporations have what are supposed to be continually updated NBA injuries rundowns. These injury monitor pages do not draw a lot of visitors, and yet they are in theory among the most important pages for someone wanting to truly keep up with the real NBA situation and to know in advance how a game or a series is likely to go.

The problem is that the NBA injury situation is very hard to keep up with, both because it is always changing from day to day and because there is no law or League rule that says that teams must be truthful and timely about their injury situations. Some teams will by accident or sometimes intentionally give out misleading or inadequate information about their injury situation. The injuries themselves are often confusing to the team medical staffs, and there is often some uncertainty about how severe an injury is and about how long it will be until a player returns to the court.

Furthermore, some of the injury monitor pages are set up editorially smarter than others, and some have more day to day update work going into them than others.

The bottom line to all of this is that despite the fact that injuries are so important to determining who wins and who loses, finding out exactly what the injury situation is is a dicey proposition.

Until now. Now you can go to the Quest for the Ring Injuries Site and see in one place six different NBA injury rundowns by team. There is at the moment no User Guide for this, so we introduce one right here....

There are five injury rundowns provided by five different media companies and there are links to the official team injury reports that are part of what I call "team situation PDFs". These PDFs are little known goldmines of information about teams provided by people working for those teams, and there are links to the PDFs of ten 2010 contending teams on the Quest Injuries page. Eventually links to all 30 teams' PDFs will be available on that page.

What you do when you want to know which team is up and which team is down due to injuries is go to Quest for the Ring Injuries and start reviewing the various injury breakdowns, starting from the top. Often there is no need to review more than the first two or three rundowns. If there is a disagreement between two or more sources regarding one or more injury statuses as quite honestly there very often will be, you should do one or more of the following:

(1) Review four or five of the "source windows".

(2) Click the link to the official team situation PDF and see the injury report there. Whenever there is disagreement between the media sources, it is usually safe to rely on what the team PDF says as correct.

(3) If no source is saying a player will play (by not listing him in the injury report) assume the worst of the various reports is correct unless the most negative one is heavily outnumbered. For example, if when describing whether a player is going to play or not one source is saying doubtful, another source is saying questionable (which is slightly less pessimistic than doubtful) and another source is saying probable, assume the player is not going to play. The exception to that is if there is one media source saying a player is out but the other four are saying the player is probable. If and only if the probable heavily outnumbers the doubtful will I assume the player will play.

(4) If you see a player listed as probable or questionable or doubtful on one or two sources but you don't see that player listed at all on the other three or four sources, assume the player will play. Remember, when a player does not appear on the list, it is because there is supposed to be no injury and the player is supposed to be able to play.

You see what I mean: this injury stuff is more complicated than the average man on the street knows, and there is both an art (that I have taught you here) and a science (the information on the Injuries page) involved to guessing correctly in advance who is going to play and who is not.

THE QUEST FOR THE RING OVERTIME SITE
The Quest for the Ring used to take as long as 90 seconds to load even with a fast cable broadband connection. We decided recently to make 60 seconds the maximum load time. We have a site where we can find out exactly how long the page takes to load, and we will monitor that from time to time to make sure our page never takes more than 60 seconds to completely and totally load.

We had to move out several great features from the home page. We put them on a new Quest for the Ring Overtime Site.

FINALLY! CUSTOM CHARTS AND GRAPHS COME TO QUEST FOR THE RING
Is there any gizmo that has not yet appeared on Quest for the Ring? Believe or not, there are a few nice gizmos that have still never appeared on this site. One of which until now was a custom graph or chart. We finally got around to finding a resource we can use to make graphs and charts. It's surprising it took so long to introduce graphs given that Quest for the Ring uses custom designed statistics extensively.

Graphs and charts bolster our custom statistical products and let you see at a glance for example exactly how well players are doing. I mean, you can see at a glance with just numbers but somehow a graph or a chart make the numbers more compelling and easier to interpret. With graphs and charts, it is easier than ever to compare a team from one year to the next, to compare the seasons of a player, and to compare one team to another in the here and now.

Here is our first chart, which shows you the Denver Nuggets Real Player Ratings for 2008-09 as a whole and for 2009-10 through February 4, 2010. You can at a glance see how much better or how much worse a player is from last year to this year. (A player plotted at zero for one of the two years means that player did not play for the Nuggets that year.)

With this particular chart that you see below, you can see at a glance that George Karl is a complete idiot for not playing Reynaldo Balkman for at least 16 and preferably about 20 minutes a game this season.

In the chart you can at a glance see that Balkman in 2008-09 was a better player than Kenyon Martin in either 2008-09 or 2009-10. Yes, it's really true, yet the office politics of the Nuggets and of George Karl in particular means it is impossible to recognize that Kenyon Martin is not the untouchable superstar they falsely believe he is. I mean, if Reynaldo Balkman is at least as good as and probably better than Kenyon Martin, then exactly how good is Kenyon Martin? Not as good as George Karl and the Nuggets think, and not as good as Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol, and Andrew Bynum by the way either.

For more information about what is probably George Karl's biggest blunder for the current season, see this Report and this Report.

In a report coming in the near future, we will have our first team to team comparison graph; most likely Lakers versus Nuggets. It's going to be another in a long series of improvements to the closer and closer to perfect Real Player Rating system.

The yellow is 2008-09 and the red is 2009-10. I am aware that it is hard to read the player names and future graphs and charts will be easier to read if at all possible.

Here is the evaluation scale:
Perfect for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.910 0.999
A Star Player / A Well Above Normal Starter 0.830 0.909
Very Good Player / A Solid Starter 0.760 0.829
Major Role Player / Good Enough to Start 0.700 0.759
Good Role Player / Often a Good 6th Man 0.650 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player 0.590 0.649
Marginal Role Player 0.530 0.589
Poor Player 0.470 0.529
Very Poor Player 0.400 0.469
Extremely Poor Player and less 0.399

Denver Nuggets Real Player Ratings as of February 4, 2010

2010-02-04T00:47:00.000-08:00

DENVER NUGGETS MOST VALUABLE PLAYERS
2009-10 SEASON through February 4
Congratulations and respect are due to CHAUNCEY BILLUPS, who is leading the Nuggets in quality basketball so far this season.

Congratulations and respect are due to NENE, who has contributed more than any other player to the Nuggets so far this season.

HISTORIC SUPER STARS
None

SUPERSTARS

CHAUNCEY BILLUPS

CARMELO ANTHONY

STARS

Chris Andersen

Nene

VERY GOOD PLAYERS: SOLID STARTERS

Ty Lawson

BEST BY SIDE OF COURT
BEST OFFENSIVE PLAYER

Chauncey Billups

BEST DEFENSIVE PLAYER
Chris Andersen

DENVER NUGGETS
REAL PLAYER RATINGS
2009-10 Regular Season
As of February 4, 2010

Quality of players: includes all tracked actions and hidden defending

All players who have played at least 300 minutes included

Chauncey Billups 0.954
Carmelo Anthony 0.923
Chris Andersen 0.868
Nene Hilario 0.846
Ty Lawson 0.782
Kenyon Martin 0.740
J.R. Smith 0.665
Arron Afflalo 0.633
Anthony Carter 0.589
Joey Graham 0.404

SCALE FOR REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Perfect for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.910 0.999
A Star Player / A Well Above Normal Starter 0.830 0.909
Very Good Player / A Solid Starter 0.760 0.829
Major Role Player / Good Enough to Start 0.700 0.759
Good Role Player / Often a Good 6th Man 0.650 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player 0.590 0.649
Marginal Role Player 0.530 0.589
Poor Player 0.470 0.529
Very Poor Player 0.400 0.469
Extremely Poor Player and less 0.399

NOTES REGARDING LOW REGULAR SEASON RATINGS
Players rated below about .550 sometimes get playing time based largely on factors outside of RPR, but valued by coaches and other players, such as:
--Great energy, effort, and hustle
--Toughness, such as diving after loose balls and taking charges
--Leadership and/or knowledge, especially in the case of veterans
--Perceived potential for future improvement in terms of real basketball production, especially in the case of young players

But keep in mind also that the value of these qualities may be overestimated, particularly with respect to playoff games. See the User Guide (link at the bottom) for much more.

DENVER NUGGETS
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
2009-10 Regular Season
As of February 4, 2010
Quantity of players: includes all tracked actions and hidden defending
All players who have played at least 300 minutes included

Nene Hilario 1392.66
Carmelo Anthony 1328.50
Chauncey Billups 1265.50
Kenyon Martin 1168.34
Chris Andersen 891.91
Arron Afflalo 793.36
Ty Lawson 768.41
J.R. Smith 755.54
Anthony Carter 296.03
Joey Graham 175.14

========== OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS ==================================

DENVER NUGGETS
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
2009-10 Regular Season
As of February 4, 2010
Offensive Quality: Includes all non-trivial offensive actions

Chauncey Billups 0.699
Carmelo Anthony 0.650
Ty Lawson 0.557
Nene Hilario 0.430
Anthony Carter 0.380
Arron Afflalo 0.371
J.R. Smith 0.360
Kenyon Martin 0.329
Chris Andersen 0.269
Joey Graham 0.177

DENVER NUGGETS
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
2009-10 Regular Season
As of February 4, 2010
Defending Quality: Includes both tracked and hidden defending

Chris Andersen 0.600
Nene Hilario 0.416
Kenyon Martin 0.412
J.R. Smith 0.305
Carmelo Anthony 0.273
Arron Afflalo 0.262
Chauncey Billups 0.255
Joey Graham 0.228
Ty Lawson 0.224
Anthony Carter 0.208

The breakdown between hidden and unhidden is available on request.

THE ALL IMPORTANT, AWARD WINNING REAL PLAYER RATINGS USER GUIDE
For complete details regarding how the Real Player Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide.

Real Team Ratings as of February 2, 2010: the Cavaliers Surge and the Lakers fall Behind the Nuggets

2010-02-02T02:46:00.000-08:00

REAL TEAM RATINGS
NBA 2009-10 REGULAR SEASON
AS OF FEBRUARY 2, 2009

Cleveland Cavaliers 41.10
Denver Nuggets 33.30
Orlando Magic 27.00
Los Angeles Lakers 26.90
Atlanta Hawks 25.80
Boston Celtics 23.40
Utah Jazz 21.40
Portland Trail Blazers 11.20
Dallas Mavericks 9.30
San Antonio Spurs 1.60
Oklahoma City Thunder -0.40
Charlotte Bobcats -2.40
Memphis Grizzlies -4.60
Phoenix Suns -7.90
Miami Heat -10.10
Houston Rockets -11.10
New Orleans Hornets -12.30
Chicago Bulls -13.10
Milwaukee Bucks -19.40
Toronto Raptors -26.60
New York Knicks -30.50
Philadelphia 76ers -32.20
Los Angeles Clippers -32.70
Washington Wizards -33.50
Detroit Pistons -38.20
Golden State Warriors -43.60
Sacramento Kings -43.60
Indiana Pacers -45.50
Minnesota Timberwolves -67.40
New Jersey Nets -79.90

THE EAST SITUATION: YIKES!
At the beginning of the season we thought the Cavaliers would meet the Lakers in the 2010 Championship, but the Cavaliers got off to such a stumbling start, and the Celtics got off to such an extremely strong start, that we switched our prediction to Celtics-Lakers for the 2010 Championship.

But since the last Real Team Ratings Report on December 26, the Celtics have stumbled while the Cavaliers have surged.

Whether to start projecting the Cavaliers in the 2010 Championship had to be and was strongly considered. But we decided to for now stand pat with the Celtics, partly because we think that Celtics' injury problems have been a big factor in their falling behind Cleveland by about 18 Real Team Rating (RTR) points.

Paul Pierce has missed five games, during which the Celtics were only 2-3. Kevin Garnett has missed eleven games, during which the Celtics were only 5-6. On the other hand though, Shaquille O'Neal has missed six games for the Cavaliers, who were however 5-1 during these games. But Shaquille O'Neal is still not as crucial to the Cavaliers as are either Pierce or Garnett for the Celtics; for one thing, O’Neal’s playing time is much less than that of Pierce or Garnett when they play.

Also, injuries to non-starters have been more significant for the Celtics than for the Cavaliers. Overall, I think the Celtics deserve roughly ten more RTR points relative to Cleveland due to injury problems that they presumably won't have come playoff time.

Another important reason I am maintaining the Celtics over the Cavaliers in my personal 2010 projection is that I am giving the Celtics about a 12 point RTR boost for having a Coach whose strategies and motivational skills will work better in the playoffs relative to the regular season and relative to the Cleveland coach. Doc Rivers knows more about how to win playoff games than does Mike Brown, whereas Brown is at least as good as Rivers for winning regular season games.

Having said all that, although we are officially maintaining our Celtics over Cavaliers projection, it is razor tight as to who will actually win it; a 7-game series is more and more likely.

WILD CARDS AND LONG SHOTS OF THE EAST
The main contenders in the East this year are the Cavaliers and the Celtics. The wild card / long shot contenders would consist of the Orlando Magic and the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks have actually become a lot less surprising in the 38 days since the last RTR Report. Meanwhile, the Magic have reestablished the position many thought they had when the season began: a little stronger than the Hawks and the only real theoretical threat to the Celtics and Cavaliers. It was felt by many before the season began that the Hawks are still a player or two and/or a season or two away from being a true major threat to the top contenders. This is more and more being reflected in RTR lately.

Specifically, in the 38 days since the December 26 RTR Report, the Hawks declined from 37.4 to 25.8, while the Magic improved from 25.0 to 27.0. Looking at RTR alone, it remains way too close to call at the moment as to who would win a 2010 Hawks-Magic playoff series. However, we think the Magic would win it due to a definite playoff coaching advantage and a probable home court advantage.

As can be deduced from our keeping the Celtics as our projected East winner this year, we do not think that when all is said and done either the Hawks or the Magic will be able to defeat the Celtics in a playoff series this year, despite the fact that at the moment the Celtics are actually very slightly behind both the Magic and the Hawks RTR wise. In other words, we strongly expect the Celtics will finish the regular season ahead of both the Magic and the Hawks.

THE WEST SITUATION: DOUBLE YIKES!
The Denver Nuggets, thanks to their extremely good, League-leading .750 winning percentage against the best teams, have moved ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers in the West. The Lakers are just .526 versus the best teams at the moment. All of this is a little bit shocking quite honestly.

It may actually be an understatement to say that Carmelo Anthony, Nene, Chauncey Billups, Ty Lawson, Arron Afflalo, and on occasion J.R. Smith are chock loaded with raw scoring abilitiy. Also, Chris Andersen is a low volume but very efficient scoring machine. It is gradually becoming an inescapable conclusion that the Nuggets should by rights defeat the Lakers this year and be in the Championship, and if they don't the blame will have to go on Nuggets' coaching, but I am not at this moment quite ready to go that far. But I am very, very close to going that far; stay tuned.

The Nuggets have surged to a RTR of 33.3 whereas the Lakers are back at 26.9. Since the margin of error is 5-6 points, we can say that the Nuggets are most definitely slightly ahead of the Magic, the Lakers, the Hawks, the Celtics, and the Jazz. Judged by RTR alone (which is dangerous as the User Guide explains) we are looking at a Nuggets-Cleveland Cavaliers 2010 NBA Championship. Cleveland is right now slightly favored in a series against the Nuggets.

The Nuggets are way ahead of the Mavericks, the Trailblazers, and the Spurs. The Nuggets would be fairly heavy favorites to defeat any of these three teams as of now. Quest for the Ring no longer expects the Mavericks to defeat the Nuggets if the two teams meet again in this year’s playoffs, although we have not given up all hope yet. We do think that any Mavericks-Nuggets series will be closer than last year’s near Denver rout was. The main problem for Dallas and for anyone dreaming of beating the Nuggets this year is that the sheer amount of raw offensive skill that the Nuggets seem to have is astounding.

In parallel to our refusal to call the East in favor of the Cavaliers, we are at this time refusing to call the West in favor of the Nuggets despite their being currently ahead of the Lakers RTR wise by slightly more than the margin of error.

One reason we refuse to change our prediction that the Lakers will represent the West in this year's Championship is that the Lakers remain significantly ahead of the Nuggets in the all important net efficiency category. The Lakers offensive efficiency is currently 109.1 and their defensive efficiency is currently 102.0, for a net efficiency of 7.1. (This means, as you may remember, that for every 100 possessions, the Lakers outscore their opponents by 7.1 points. The Nuggets' offensive efficiency is a towering 111.8 but their defensive efficiency is just 106.1, for a net efficiency of 5.7.

The Nuggets’ offensive efficiency is the 2nd best in the NBA, behind only the Phoenix Suns, who are one of only five teams faster paced than the Nuggets by the way.

Aside from the Lakers remaining ahead of the Nuggets in net efficiency, they maintain a big 4.1 points per 100 possessions in defensive efficiency. If the defensive efficiency overweight adjustment should be larger than it is (which is quite frankly possible; we may be a little too conservative on that) then the gap between the Lakers and the Nuggets would be a less than it is.

LAKERS--NUGGETS LOOKS QUITE DIFFERENT THIS YEAR VERSUS LAST
When you look at last year versus this year, you see a fascinating role reversal for the Nuggets-Lakers confrontation. Last year, the Lakers were of course great on both offense and defense, but they were actually better offensively than defensively relative to the rest of the League. Last year, the Lakers were the 3rd best offensive team and the 6th best defensive team. This year so far, the Lakers are only the 10th best offensive team but they are the 2nd best defensive team.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets have been in pretty much the reverse pattern. Last year the Nuggets were the 7th best offensive team and the 8th best defensive team. This year so far, the Nuggets are the 2nd best offensive team but only the 13th best defensive team. Carmelo Anthony, Ty Lawson, and especially Arron Afflalo have exceeded almost everyone's offensive expectations, and they have more than offset the fact that J.R. Smith is so far this year no longer a huge offensive weapon for the Nuggets. Even Kenyon Martin has been ramping it up offensively this year.

Unfortunately for the Nuggets, defensively they have fallen off from last year's surprising 8th best defensive team status to only 13th best, which is very dangerously low if a team wants to make sure it is going to win in the playoffs, when defense is at a premium.

So the Lakers are emphasizing defense more so than they did last year (perhaps excessively, actually) whereas the Nuggets are emphasizing defense much less so than they did last year. Just to be 8th best last year, the Nuggets had to give everything they had to the defensive effort, whereas offensively they could coast on raw scoring skills.

If the Lakers are going to once again defeat the Nuggets this year, they will apparently be doing it with a very heavy emphasis on defense against a team that through massive raw scoring talent is an offensive powerhouse. In other words, the upcoming collision between the Lakers' extremely well coached defense and the Nuggets' extremely high raw skilled offense will be a major sight to behold. Meanwhile, the matchup between the Lakers' offense and the Nuggets' defense will apparently not be quite so high level.

In the 2009 Nuggets-Lakers West Final, it was mostly the reverse: the high level matchup was the Lakers' offense versus the super aggressive and energetic Nuggets' defense, whereas the less important matchup was the mostly street ball style Nuggets' offense against the relatively less important Lakers defense. The bottom line is that, if as increasingly appears a virtual certainty, the Lakers and the Nuggets meet up for the second straight year in the West final, the setup and probably the main dynamics will be the opposite of what they were last year.

WILD CARDS AND LONG SHOTS OF THE WEST
As for the wild cards and long shots of the West, the Mavericks have tumbled from 25.1 to 9.3 in the 38 days since the last RTR report. The Spurs have fallen from 8.0 to 1.6. The Phoenix Suns have gone from -2.0 to -7.9. All three of these teams are fading in the rear view mirror of both the Lakers and the Nuggets.

By contrast, the Utah Jazz have gone from -1.5 to 21.4. We are elevating the Jazz to long shot contender and dropping the Suns completely out of all of the contending categories including long shot. Look for a separate Report coming soon which will give our latest conference final and Championship projections and our latest breakdown for major, wild card, and long shot contenders.

THE ALL IMPORTANT, AWARD WINNING USER GUIDE
For complete details regarding how the Real Team Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide.

Darth Vader Sets out to Destroy The Quest for the Ring, Part Two

2010-01-14T00:44:00.000-08:00

If you don't know already from reading this previous Report, George Karl and probably some unknown cronies of his are the Darth Vader of basketball, laugh out loud. Just as in the movies, old Darth can really do some unexpected damage and put a lot of fear into the atmosphere when he gets lucky with one of his diabolical schemes.

As promised in the prequel to this review of the only Quest Report in history to be declared to be in error after publication, we are now going to go over each of the 16 reasons given in that Report for why the Denver Nuggets were supposedly, definitely not going to win any playoff series in 2009. They did win a series, and we actually can see why if we find out that somehow Darth and the Nuggets avoided most of these sixteen things from happening.

The idea from that January 14 Report that turned out to be very wrong was that although not all of the 16 things would go wrong for the Nuggets in the playoffs, enough of them would go wrong that the Nuggets would fail to win a series. Technically, the Nuggets were not supposed to win more than two playoff games; whereas they actually won ten.

Reasons one through six were already covered in Part One. This part features reasons seven through ten, and part three will cover reasons eleven and twelve and will discuss the error one last time and will summarize all of the corrections and also will summarize what does not need to be corrected.

REASON SEVEN WHY THE NUGGETS WERE TO NOT WIN ANY PLAYOFF SERIES

More broadly, Karl is well known for having a total breakdown of communication
and relations with at least one of his players, usually tactlessly and publicly,
during every playoff series he has ever been in. If the player who Karl has the
falling out with is not Smith, it will be someone else. So the opponent will be
doing everything possible to make any developing rift between Karl and one of
the Nuggets worse, so as to literally and perhaps completely remove that Nugget
from the playoffs.

HOW REASON SEVEN PLAYED OUT
This simply didn’t happen. Karl knew this season was his one true coaching success story and he wasn’t going to have a big argument with one of his players to spoil it. Another thing showing that Karl was on his best behavior was that he was more generous with playing time for reserves and for younger players than in God only knows how many years. By contrast, already this year, Coach Karl he has cut back on the amount of playing time available to non-starters from the generous amount that was given last year.

In fairness to Quest, we didn’t think this was among the most likely reasons why the Nuggets would fail to win a playoff series, but we had to include it given Karl’s problematic history in this area.

REASON EIGHT WHY THE NUGGETS WERE TO NOT WIN ANY PLAYOFF SERIES

The Nuggets’ opponent will have patience on offense and will not try to run into
a brick wall by trying to pick up the pace against a team that relies heavily on
very aggressive and energetic defending in general, and especially on aggressive
and energetic man to man defending in the paint in particular. The opponent will
keep the pace measured and use plenty of the 24 second clock. This will wear out
the Nuggets extremely energetic defenders as the game wears on. Stunts and
shortcuts on offense will not work well against a team that uses stunts on
defense.

HOW REASON EIGHT PLAYED OUT
Well this reason did play out as forecast in one sense but not in another. All three of the Nuggets’ playoff opponents kept roughly the same pace they had in the regular season, which was very slow for New Orleans, average for Dallas, and fast pace for Los Angeles. But the reason did not play out insofar as the Nuggets’ defenders hardly ever “wore out”.

In many reports between the end of the Mavericks series and now, I have revised my view by softening my criticism of the 2008-09 Nuggets defense. I have in great detail in previous reports during July-November 2009 explained my new position on the high energy, high aggressiveness, and intentionally high fouling strategy.

Actually, prior to the 2008-09 season, I didn’t have a position, because I had never seen this defensive approach before. It took a long-time veteran coach tired of the same old same old and apparently a wonk or two in the Denver front office to spring this on the unsuspecting basketball world. For a few months during 2008-09, I was naturally against it for all circumstances, but I changed my mind after the Nuggets demonstrated the effectiveness adequately.

There will be other strategies and approaches that are good enough to pick up extra regular season wins and in some cases a few extra playoff wins, but that are not good enough to get into or to win a Championship. The Nuggets had a two-for here, because their primary offensive strategy, fast pace and fast breaks, are another strategy that will give you a few extra regular season wins and possibly an extra playoff win or two, but it will never win you a Ring.

I guess it’s realistic to use these strategies if you know for a fact you can’t win a Ring regardless of using them or not. I personally would not use a strategy or approach such as this if I was in charge, and nor would the majority of coaches and managers, but it can be theoretically justified.

As a brief summary of what we recommend now, I now fully endorse this in certain circumstances: when a team knows it has no chance to win a Ring, when it is not a highly skilled defense, when it has high energy, high motivation, no backing down kind of players, and when on offense it has good fast breaking capability.

You might call this a “building for the future strategy”. The team that uses it will get extra regular season wins from doing this and perhaps, as the Nuggets showed, even some playoff wins it would not otherwise have gotten. No, a team can not win a Ring while doing this barring a once in 300 years miracle, and it’s not the best defensive approach, but it is better than I thought, and if the team is not going to win a Ring anyway, it’s not really a bad defensive scheme.

Referees are simply incapable, unwilling, or both to ramp up their foul calls to the same extent that a team operating a high fouling defense makes the fouls. So the team running this strategy makes some gains “on the margin” when it prevents a score by fouling but the foul is not called. Some additional net gain is made when free throws are missed.

REASON NINE WHY THE NUGGETS WERE TO NOT WIN ANY PLAYOFF SERIES

Stay calm, cool, and collected; do not allow the Nuggets, anyone on the Nuggets,
or the referees to get under your skin. Tune them and their crowd out completely
and don’t worry about them and their rose colored glasses. Go about your
business with laser like focus. Certain teams have lost a game to the Nuggets in
the regular season so far due simply to losing their cool.

HOW REASON NINE PLAYED OUT
Laugh out loud. Chris Paul, the second best player in the NBA during 2008-09, allowed little old Daunte Jones to get under his skin to the point where he was not as effective a point guard as usual. Hornets Coach Byron Scott complained in public that Jones was a dirty player and that the Nuggets were basically playing fast and loose with the rules. The perception that Scott allowed the Nuggets to get under the skin of Chris Paul and also under his own skin most likely was one of the reasons why Scott was subsequently fired by the Hornets. Scott was fired very early in the 2009-10 regular season.

In the next series, not only did the Mavericks, their coaches, their owner, and most of their fans lose their cool to one extent or another due to the Nuggets’ aggressiveness and successful gaming of the referees during the series, but the NBA became worried that the series was going to blow up in some kind of a brawl. The NBA itself lost its cool, laugh out loud. For details, see this Report , especially the last half of that Report. For more than that, simply see other Reports in that series of Reports on the Mavericks-Nuggets series; in total there are nine Reports on that series.

When in game four, under instructions from a worried NBA front office the referees started handing out technical fouls left and right, the Mavericks didn’t realize the trap set up by the Nuggets and the League (who were not in cahoots though) they were walking into, they lost their cool and ended up, ironically, getting more technical and flagrant fouls called against them than the original perpetrators, the Nuggets did. It seems that just as “it’s always the second guy who gets caught,” when players are jostling on the court, I guess its always the second team that gets caught when entire teams are getting extra aggressive toward one another.

So overall, this possible reason why the Nuggets would lose did not really play out.

REASON TEN WHY THE NUGGETS WERE TO NOT WIN ANY PLAYOFF SERIES

The opponent will make sure that their best and hottest jump shooters have
plenty of playing time and that, unlike J.R. Smith and Linas Kleiza, they have
plenty of confidence. The one automatic, easy way to beat the Nuggets is to
simply make your jump shots, or make the free throws if the Nuggets insist on
fouling you as they often do now days. The Nuggets are saying to you: "Ok, we
are going to run around all over and try to confuse your offense, we are going
to run at you all night, we are going to goal tend from time to time, we are
going to foul over and over and over, and we are especially going to man to man
defend you aggressively and well." To which your response is simply: "Fine, have
fun; we'll make our passes, our assists, and our shots, and all of your extra
effort and aggressiveness will not amount to a whole lot of benefit for you." I
repeat for emphasis that you must not forget to make your free throws, because
the Nuggets have actually won at least a couple of regular season games simply
because their opponent could not make enough free throws.

HOW REASON TEN PLAYED OUT
Let’s check what actually happened:

MAVERICKS-NUGGETS SERIES FREE THROWS
Game One: Free throws: Mavericks 9-13, Nuggets 25-36; Fouls Mavericks 29, Nuggets 19
Game Two: Free throws: Mavericks 23-30, Nuggets 31-40; Fouls Mavericks 28, Nuggets 20
Game Three: Free throws: Mavericks 40-49, Nuggets 32-40; Fouls Mavericks 27, Nuggets 34
Game Four: Free throws: Mavericks 36-43, Nuggets 32-44, Fouls Mavericks 29, Nuggets 29
Game Five: Free throws: Mavericks 22-29, Nuggets 17-22; Fouls Mavericks 22, Nuggets 25
Grand Total: Free throws: Mavericks 130-164, Nuggets 137-182; Fouls Mavericks 135 Nuggets 127

The Mavericks made almost 80 percent of their free throws, but the referees were not calling some of the fouls in games one and two in Denver, and nor was Denver making as many fouls as they often did in the regular season.

To their credit, in the Dallas series at least the Nuggets never technically ran a raw intentional fouling defense. It was a modified one;; the Nuggets would only start fouling more or less intentionally if they felt that their energetic and athletic defending was not going to be good enough by itself, and if they felt that the referees would cut them some breaks by not calling a few of the fouls. In games one and two, the Nuggets sensed they didn’t need to foul heavily, but when they went to Dallas for games three and four, it was a different story and the Nuggets clearly intentionally ran a high fouling strategy for those particular games.

The Mavericks made their free throws, but they didn’t get as many free throws as they should have gotten; they should have gotten at least 20 more of them. What about shooting and assisting; did the Mavericks, who did have a well run offense during the regular season, have their shooting and assisting negatively affected by the Nuggets defense or not?

MAVERICKS SHOOTING AND ASSISTING
Game One: Shooting 48.8%, Assists: 17
Game Two: Shooting 47.4%, Assists 23
Game Three: Shooting 40.0%, Assists 15
Game Four: Shooting 50.6%, Assists 17
Game Five: Shooting 51.4%, Assists 23

Series Average per Game: Shooting 47.64%, Assists 19
The Dallas Mavericks’ regular season shooting percentage was 46.2%, so they shot better against Denver than they did on average, so in accordance with this reason the Nuggets way of defending was not able to actually reduce the shooting effectiveness of their opponent.

On the other hand, the Mavericks averaged only 19 assists per game, a very bad number for a playoff team that has sites on winning Rings. During the regular season, the Mavericks made 21.7 assists per game, almost three more than they made against the Nuggets. In the regular, Dallas was 8th in assists, but against Denver, they made assists at rate that would have placed them 29th in the NBA, with only one team, the lowly Memphis Grizzlies, making fewer assists than 19 per game.

What the Mavericks’ assists pattern tells you is that the Nuggets’ unique and controversial high fouling defense did not as you might expect stop a good shooting team from making their shots in playoff games (when they were allowed by the Nuggets to shoot without a foul). But on the other hand, the Mavericks reacted to the high energy, high movement, and high athleticism aspects by passing less, which was absolutely devastating to the Mavericks’ chances to win the series. Had Rick Carlisle demanded that his team not worry so much about turnovers to the Nuggets’ defense, and to pass more and get more assists, they would have been able to be fully competitive in the series, and the result may very well have been a Dallas victory.

I was partly right and partly wrong with this reason. I was right to say that a lot of aggressiveness, fouling, and energy per se will not stop the other team from scoring efficiently. And I am right when I say that that kind of defense will never win you a Ring precisely because it won't reduce scoring percentage. But I was wrong in assuming that that type of defense will not slow down passing and assisting. It may slow down assisting and passing if the team being affected gets scared and starts passing less out of fear of turnovers and fast breaks coming the other way.

There is a crucial lesson here for everyone, especially coaches: never ever fail to monitor your teams’ passing and assisting, and make sure that your team is not so afraid of making turnovers that they cut down their passing and assisting when they encounter any kind of unusually hard charging defense. That is a trap you can fall into if you are not an expert coach. Rather, pay a price of a few more turnovers than usual to maintain your passing and assisting in general. Turnovers are seldom if ever going to spike up so much that you would have been better off half shutting down your passing and assisting. You lose by playing it cautiously and conservatively the way the Mavericks did.

Essentially, the Mavericks fell into the trap that the Nuggets had set: they compromised the quality of their offense (and that quality was the only way they were going to win this series) by cutting down on passing and assisting because they were afraid of turnovers. They thought wrong and were virtually blown out of the series.

Later on, the Lakers faced the same question, and they chose correctly, presumably due to Phil Jackson.

As just described in detail, reason ten partly played out but partly did not play out. It did not play out enough to constitute a substantial reason why the Nuggets might have lost in the playoffs.

The review of the sixteen reasons the Nuggets were going to lose continues and concludes in part three.

THE DARTH VADER OF BASKETBALL

Calculate Exactly How Good Basketball Players Really are at the Much Improved Quest Toolbox

2010-01-13T00:43:00.000-08:00

Since May 2009 Quest for the Ring has produced Toolbox, which allows visitors to calculate Real Player and associated ratings for themselves. Our initial application, however, was cumbersome to use and even more cumbersome to improve, so we went in search of improvement. As of January 2010, we have the big improvement we wer looking for. The big breakthrough has arrived and the tools on Toolbox are now state of the art and are now truly easy to use and completely interactive.

Do you have raw data about a basketball player and do you now want to know exactly how good he or she really is? Go to Toolbox, enter the data, see the ratings, and use the evaluation scale to get an excellent idea of how good your player really was in a career, in a season, in part of a season, or in a game.

What follows is the complete "User Guide for Real Player Ratings Calculators on Quest for the Ring Toolbox". This Guide also appears on Quest Reference where all user guides can be found and it also is reprinted in full on the Toolbox Page itself.

INTRODUCTION
Welcome. The Quest for the Ring Toolbox is the only known place on the internet where anyone can rate players by entering game or season performance measurements. Exactly how good players are does not have to be a mystery anymore!

As of January 2010 there are two calculators: one that is intended for multiple games, in other words, for part of or all of an entire season, and one for single games and for small numbers of games. The calculators, using state of the art internet technology, have been embedded onto a web page and made to be fully interactive.

Most of what you can do with any excel file you can do on the calculator that appears in the embedded excel at the Quest for the Ring Toolbox site. In other words, you can quickly calculate ratings right on the web page. If you make a mistake and you don't know how to reverse what you did using Excel, you can simply refresh the page with your browser and start over.

How to use Excel is beyond the scope of this Guide. But even if you know nothing about Excel, you should be able to nevertheless calculate Real Player Ratings and the associated measures using the Toolbox page. You definitely do not need to know much of anything about Excel to be able to calculate Real Player Ratings using the Toolbox Internet page.

If you are well versed in Excel though, you can even change the formula used for calculating Real Player Ratings to one you for whatever reason think is more appropriate.

USE THE TOOL FOR ANY TIME FRAME YOU NEED
Provided you have the correct statistics, you can look at a player's performance for an individual game, for his or her entire career, or for anything in between, such as a season.

USE OF THE TOOL TO COMPARE TEAMS
You can also use the tool to rate and compare entire teams, simply by using the combined measures for all the players. Suppose you have two teams in a League that were considered extremely close, and they play in the Champiionship, and the Championship is decided in overtime. In such a case you might not be convinced that the team that won the Championship was really the better team. To investigate, you could compare the team RPRs of the two teams to try to get at which was really and truly the better team.

One interesting idea for Team RPR is to use combined team RPR (the sum of the player RPRs) to compare the same team from one year to another, which would go a long way towards answering a question that everyone asks all the time but that often no one ever has a very good answer for: which team was better: last year's or this year's?

CUSTOMIZED RATING
To request a custom rating scheme different from the one used in RPR, you can e-mail your request to questforthering at gmail.com.

HOW TO USE A REAL PLAYER RATING CALCULATOR
You need the items shown on the calculators to find out what the Real Player Rating is for one or more players for multiple games or for a single game. You need:

Minutes
Points
3-Point Shots Made
3-Point Shots Attempted
2-Point Shots Made
2-Point Shots Attempted
Free Throws Made
Free Throws Attempted
Offensive Rebounds
Defensive Rebounds
Assists
Steals
Blocks
Turnovers
Personal Fouls
Hidden Defending (Multiple Games Only)

Simply enter all of the items in any order you wish to enter them. When using the multiple games calculator, you enter the totals for all games for each item.

Don’t forget to type the first name initial and the last name of the player(s) you are rating just above the items, where it says "Name of Player >>>>>". Very long names will not entirely fit in the cell but presumably you will know who it is from just most of the name.

When all items have been entered the following will be automatically calculated for you:

Real Player Rating
Real Player Production
Offensive Sub Rating
Defensive Sub Rating

For very detailed and complete information about these four measurements and how and why the ratings are valid and valuable, see the latest User Guide for Real Player Ratings.

SAVING DATA TO YOUR OWN COMPUTER
Although at this time you can not simply save the file (the entire worksheet) to your computer, you can copy and paste the data on the live worksheet on Toolbox into an Excel worksheet of your own. On the Toolbox page, highlight and then right click on data you wish to save. Then click “copy to clipboard.” A small pop-up will appear with the data you highlighted. Right click the data within the pop-up and click copy. Now you can paste that data to your own excel worksheet on your own computer.

Note that you had to copy the data twice. The first time you copy it from the embedded excel that is on Toolbox by highlighting and right clicking “copy to clipboard” and a pop-up appears. (Note that on the first copy, right clicking “copy” will not work; you must right click “copy to clipboard”.) The second time, you copy the highlighted data from a pop-up by right clicking “copy”. Now you can paste to your own Excel worksheet (or to a Word or a Notepad or what have you) on your own computer.

HIDDEN DEFENDING ESTIMATION FOR THE MULTIPLE GAMES CALCULATOR
The hidden defending element is included only on the multiple game calculator. It is the last item on that calculator. It is literally impossible now and for the foreseeable future to in any way, shape, or form include a valid hidden defending adjustment in the calculator for a single game.

For its regular NBA coverage, Quest for the Ring uses a multi-step, statistically valid process to fairly and competitively rate NBA players on their “hidden defending,” which is all actions not recorded by scorekeepers that succeed at preventing scores by the opponent. In the multi-game calculator, however, it is assumed that the extensive data needed to calculate hidden defending ratings the way Quest does it for the NBA is not available. The data you would need to use the Quest system would include the exact number of points scored by the opponent while the player you are rating is on the court, something which is hard or impossible to come by outside of the statistically rich NBA.

However, due to the big need to include hidden defending in ratings that span multiple games up to and including an entire season, the item is included and the following instructions are given for it.

HIDDEN DEFENDING EXPLAINED
The Quest for the Ring Hidden Defending Rating has a scale running from 0 to .307. The ratings follow a “bell curve” statistically. The vast majority of NBA players have ratings between .050 and .260. Only about the the top 2% of all defenders have hidden defending ratings higher than .260. Only about the bottom 2% of all defenders have hidden defending ratings lower than .050. At least 95% (19 out of 20) basketball players have hidden defending ratings between .050 and .260.

In order to incorporate hidden defending into Real Player Ratings and into defensive sub ratings for multiple games, you should use your knowledge of how well the player stops scores using hidden defending actions, which include the following:

--effective man to man defending
--effective rotation / switching on defense, especially off screens and picks
--effective pick and roll defense
--effective defensive recognition
--quickness of defensive reaction
--energy and hustle on defense
--effective taking of charges (causing a driving offensive player to be called for an offensive foul)
--effective hustling after loose balls

You need to make the most reasonable statistical estimate you can make even though you lack hard data. So you simply look at any player you are rating and ask yourself: how good is that player, compared with other players, in the above (and perhaps a small number of other related) actions that prevent the other team from scoring points it would have scored.

THINGS YOU MUST NOT CONSIDER WHEN YOU DO YOUR HIDDEN DEFENDING ESTIMATES
Be careful not to simply rate a player’s defensive or overall style: this is a relatively common mistake that many basketball fans and sometimes coaches make. Managers, though, seldom consider a player’s style when deciding on acquisitions and contracts and that is one of the reasons they are managers. For about the same reason, be careful not to consider a player’s personality when you estimate his hidden defending. Remember, styles and personalities are completely irrelevant: the only thing ultimately relevant is whether and to what extent what the player does on defense prevents what would have been scores from being scores.

You also must not include tracked defensive actions in your estimations:

--Defensive Rebounds
--Steals
--Blocks
--Personal Fouls

These items are known and they are already included in the calculator, so you must not consider these actions when estimating hidden defending. Be warned that there are some players who get a lot of the above but are actually not very good hidden defenders and vice versa: there are some players who don’t make many defensive rebounds, steals, or blocks but are actually very good as far as hidden defending is concerned.

To emphasize, when you estimate how good a player's hidden defending is, do not be biased either for or against players who make a lot of defensive rebounds, blocks, and/or steals.

In fact, players who make a large number of defensive rebounds and blocks often have lower hidden defending ratings than do "defensive specialists" who do not make a truly large number of defensive rebounds and blocks. This makes sense insofar as that it is not automatic or all that easy for players to be extremely good at rebounding and blocking and at for example man to man defending at the same time. To some extent with defending, it is an either/or proposition. Great defenders can be either great rebounders and blockers or alternatively they can be great man to man defenders and defensive recognizers and rotators. Only a small number of great defenders are great at both tracked and hidden defending.

There can be other combinations. For example, there will also be players who are average in rebounding and a little above average in man to man defending. It's just that it would be rare for a player to be an outstanding rebounder, blocker, and man to man defender all at the same time.

And obviously, you should avoid bias for or against good offensive players. Quite honestly, how well or how bad a spcific player is on offense has almost nothing to do with how well or bad that player is on defense, allthough broadly speaking across the whole universe of players there is some degree of correlation.

CORRECT WAY TO DO A HIDDEN DEFENDING ESTIMATE
What you want is your best estimate of the combined effect of the quantity and the quality of the player’s hidden defending actions. Both the quantity and the quality must be considered, not just one or the other. The best defenders use high quality hidden defending most of the time. Defenders who are just “ok” will be for example high quality hidden defenders but they are too lazy or whatever to show the high quality very often. Other defenders who are just “ok” will be players who try hard most of the time but they simply don’t at this time have the skills needed for high quality hidden defending. The higher the quality of the defending, the more often it will turn what would have been scores into stops.

The most important thing, of course, is to be objective and fair, which is really saying about the same thing with two different words. To sum this up in one sentence, you have to judge how good a player is, relative to other players, in terms of the quantity and the quality of his hidden defending.

Once you have in your head how good the player is relative to all other players, use the following to give that player a hidden defending rating. The first percentage shown on each of the following lines is how the player stacks up to all other players with respect to hidden defending:

HIDDEN DEFENDING ESTIMATION SCALE
1% > better than 99% of other players: .285 to .305
2% > better than 98% of other players: .260 to .280
5% > better than 95% of other players: .250 to .255
10% > better than 90% of other players: about 245
20% > better than 80% of other players: about .230
30% > better than 70% of other players: about .205
40% > better than 60% of other players: about .175
50% > better than 50% of other players: about .140
60% > better than 40% of other players: about .110
70% > better than 30% of other players: about .85
80% > better than 20% of other players: about .65
90% > better than 10% of other players: about .55
95% > better than 5% of other players: about .50
98% > better than 2% of other players: .25 to .40
99% > better than 1% of other players: 0 to .20

If you are estimating more than one player, when you are done, review your estimates by making sure that your players rank according to who really is better and who is worse with respect to hidden defending.

Theoretically, a player who never changes any shots from makes to misses would have a hidden defending rating of as low as .000. But even most of the "bad defensive players" in terms of "made them miss" defending, via untracked actions will generally have hidden defending ratings of between about .050 and .070. Exactly in the middle players in terms of hidden defending will have hidden defending ratings of between .130 to .150. And the best defensive players in terms of hidden defending will generally have hidden defending ratings of between .240 and .260, although the absolute best such players can theoretically deserve a rating of up to .305.

EVALUATION OF YOUR RATINGS
Just below the ratings you will see an evaluation scale. Note that the scale for multiple games is different from the scale for single games. In just a single game or a small number of games, since players’ ratings will be more variable (due to, in effect, a small sample size) the range of the single game scale is a little bigger.

Actually, the multiple games scale should not be used unless the player’s minutes are 150 or more. For player minutes less than 150, use the single game scale, which should and probably will be relabeled at some time in the future: it will probably be relabeled “Evaluation Scale for Player Minutes Less Than 150”.

The evaluation scale uses terms that the vast majority of basketball fans, coaches, and managers understand as important descriptions of just how valuable the player is to the team and also the role of the player. See the User Guide for Real Player Ratings for detailed information about how to evaluate the ratings, and also for cautions about using the Ratings.

As the main User Guide will inform you, although Real Player Ratings are very valid and valuable, there are nevertheless reasons why they are not perfect and why they can not be the final word on basketball players. See the cautions section of the User Guide for complete details on this subject.

George Karl is Losing Home Court Advantage due to not Defending the Paint

2010-01-10T15:06:00.000-08:00

One of the many elements of last year’s storybook season for the Nuggets was their having home court advantage in the first two rounds of the playoffs. That came as a result of, among other things, a whole lot of intensity and energy on defense, unusual generosity toward non-starters by George Karl, and also as a result of a large amount of luck: more lucky wins than anyone and getting the playoff seeding tie breaker.

Most seasons are not storybook seasons unless you are the Celtics, the Lakers, or the Spurs and hell, even those franchises have numerous rotten seasons in their histories to go along with all the storybook ones. So you have to treasure every storybook season you have and you have to pay close attention to the prerequisites for that kind of good memories season.

One of the main dividing lines between whether the season of an NBA team is a storybook one or not is whether the team was good enough to get home court advantage for at least round one of the playoffs, preferably for the first two rounds. Having home court in round one is a very basic requirement for both the team and of course for the fans. Strictly speaking, the road teams in round one generally don’t deserve to be in the playoffs at all. The NBA qualifies 16 out of its 30 teams for the playoffs every year, whereas in the good old days 8 teams making the playoffs in a League with 30 teams would have been regarded as enough. Even today the National Football League is more restrictive: only 12 out of 32 teams make the playoffs in the NFL.

But the NBA is never going to get rid of its 16 teams in the playoffs format because it is a good money maker and also because having the road team knock off the home team in round one (before things get serious in the playoffs saga and before the TV ratings get really high) is a very good way to quickly put an otherwise very good team that has been devastated by injuries during the season out of it’s misery and off the live games on TV schedules. (Trust me and the League, you don’t want to see the Portland Trailblazers with no Joel Przybilla and no Greg Oden play the Lakers in the West final this year). So think of round one as the injury wash out round, although if a major contender has big injury problems it will often not be washed out until round two. For example, the Celtics with no Kevin Garnett squeaked by the Chicago Bulls in round one but lost to the Orlando Magic in round two despite heroics form Rajon Rondo in 2009.

Anyway, it’s time to get back to that team that I am obsessed with because their coach drives me up the wall and yet the team is very dangerous to the Lakers again this year because it has skills, especially offensive ones, coming out of the woodwork due to unbelievably nice (lucky?) pickups from teams that were somehow willing to let some of their best players go for next to nothing: the Denver Nuggets. (Why did the Bulls give up J.R. Smith for very little; why did the Hornets give up Chris Andersen for next to nothing, and why did the Timberwolves give up Ty Lawson for little or nothing?)

Ok, now what’s up with the Nuggets? Well, you have to first keep in mind that they are as I said overloaded with offensive talent. For example, the Nuggets have even moved a little above the average 3-point shooting percentage for the first time in many years despite the fact that J.R. Smith is not shooting them as well as he did in prior years. But overall the Nuggets remain below average in this very important playoff factor, because they are still short one good 3-point shooter (they need another forward or center who can make threes) and the 3-point shooters they do have are discouraged by Nuggets coaches from putting up a good number of threes.

The next thing you have to understand is that the Nuggets are unexpectedly going back to their traditional poor defensive strategy and are in fact tanking with respect to defending in general and especially with respect to defending the paint. See this Report for the details about how the Nuggets are falling short defensively this year.

I stated in that Report that if expert paint defender Renaldo Balkman (.808 Real Player Rating in 2008-09, slightly higher than Kenyon Martin) was not given more playing time that the Nuggets were going to be hurt more and more as time went by and, sure enough, that is what is happening as more and more teams discover the Nuggets are no longer a lock down paint defending team. The Nuggets are only 4-6 in their last ten games.

The main reason I did this Report, which I am trying to keep relatively short and sweet (good luck with that, laugh out loud) is to emphasize what I already reported and to tell you that it is a 100% certainty that George Karl is blowing games by not playing Balkman.

Just to name two obvious examples, had Balkman played 20 minutes or more, the Nuggets could easily have defeated the 76’ers in Denver on January 3 (instead of losing to them by three) and they could have easily defeated the Kings in Sacramento on January 9 (instead of losing to them by two) By losing these and a few other clearly winnable games, Karl with his refusal to play Balkman at any cost is setting up for the Nuggets to not have home court advantage in the playoffs, not even in round one. So Karl is spoiling the Nuggets’ opportunity to have the second storybook season in a row, regardless of whether they can win a Ring or not.

Now you probably know there are two guard positions and three front court positions (two forwards and a center) in basketball. Obviously, the front court players are always taller than the back court players because they can use their height to greater advantage in those positions whereas guards can use their speed, passing, and ball handling to greater advantage in the back court. Guards are simply too short and not bulky enough to be good paint defenders and when defending they generally remain out of the paint guarding other guards unless the player they are guarding drives into the paint.

Regardless of what specific strategies and tactics you are following on defense, if you don’t have the right players with the right physical characteristics in the right positions, you are not going to be very successful in stopping the other team from scoring. What’s more, you absolutely must as you rotate players in and out of games make sure that in every lineup that is out that you do not make the blunder of failing to balance the back court and the front court. And you have to maintain some kind of balance between guards and the taller front court players for the game as a whole. If you over play guards and under play forwards and centers, your defending will be inferior to what it needs to be. If you over play forwards and centers and underplay guards, your offense will usually simply not score enough points.

As we now go more specific, we’ll first remind you that the small forward position lies between the big man positions of power forward and center and the two guard positions (point guard and shooting guard.) There are 48 minutes in a game, so there are 5 X 48 = 240 player minutes that the coach is responsible for allocating. If the 240 minutes were exactly allocated, the big men (the power forwards and centers) would total 2 X 48 = 96 player minutes, the guards would also total 2 X 48 = 96 player minutes, and the small forward slot in the middle would have 1 X 48 = 48 player minutes.

Now let’s see how George Karl allocated playing time when he and his much more talented and harder working on defense Nuggets blew their game in Sacramento on January 9:

NUGGETS PLAYING TIME VERSUS SACRAMENTO ON JANUARY 9 2010
BIG MEN: Power Forwards and Centers:
Kenyon Martin: 37 minutes
Nene: 37 minutes
Chris Andersen: 22 minutes
TOTAL: 96 MINUTES versus 96 minutes standard

IN THE MIDDLE: Small Forward
No One: 0 minutes
TOTAL: 0 MINUTES versus 48 minutes standard

GUARDS: Point Guards and Shooting Guards
Joey Graham: 19 minutes
Aaron Afflalo: 26 minutes
Chauncey Billups: 39 minutes
J.R. Smith: 37 minutes
Anthony Carter 24 minutes
TOTAL: 145 MINUTES versus 96 minutes standard

Ok, so now you can easily see how Karl blew this game.

Karl had small forward (the position in between the two categories that need to be closely balanced that you see above) superstar Carmelo Anthony out due to a knee contusion. You can argue that technically Melo is the only small forward on the team. (Although this is definitely not a good thing, it is not necessarily gross mismanagement by the Nuggets’ general managers, because Melo plays most of every game, because Melo is a superstar and the Nuggets are ruined without him, and because you can usually slide either a shooting guard or a power forward into the small forward slot and usually not suffer too much damage. While I am not saying that the Nuggets didn’t make a mistake by not having a bona fide small forward to back up Carmelo Anthony, I am not on the other hand claiming it is some huge blunder. I’d say it was a small to at most moderate mistake.

But guess what? Karl is screwing up again, you ask? Bingo, how did you know? Laugh out loud. No, seriously, Renaldo Balkman at 6 feet 8 inches is classified as a power forward, but he can easily be considered to be holding down the small forward position if the need arises. Were he not a defensive specialist type of power forward, Balkman could be a full scale PF/SF, as are other players who are 80 inches tall. Whereas those who are an inch or two taller are much more often exclusively power forwards or they can be power forwards / centers.

I said that Balkman can be small forward if the need arises. Well, having small forward Carmelo Anthony out with a knee contusion is the need arising to put it mildly. Yet Karl was oblivious to the obvious need to play Balkman.

So now we have caught George Karl blowing a game through what amounts to gross negligence. This has gone beyond coaching discretion: no rational coach would fail to play Renaldo Balkman in games where Carmelo Anthony is not playing at all. Karl has in Balkman one of the best young paint defenders and a very good rebounder, two qualities the Nuggets are badly in need of and will be even more in need of in the playoffs. Balkman established himself as a high quality paint defender both last year when Karl was unusually generous with playing time for non-starting forwards and in a prior sting with the New York Knicks.

Not only that, but Balkman can be a small forward for a team that has no small forwards when Carmelo Anthony is out due to injury. The need for Balkman to play has become overwhelming to the point where it is gross negligence not to play him. But instead of providing his team with paint defending, rebounding, a small forward, and balance between forwards and guards, Karl trashed all of those things and gave every single “Carl Anthony minute” allocated to the small forward position to his guards.

So there are really two gross errors here. The first is that Balkman was not put in to fill the gaping hole at small forward. The other gross error was giving every last small forward minute to guards. Had Karl better split the small forward minutes between the guards and the big men, he most likely would have defeated the Sacramento Kings on January 9 even without Balkman.

Looking at number of players, first be informed that Karl typically plays just eight players in games whereas top coaches typically play nine (and sometimes ten). In the Sacramento loss you had Karl playing five guards and three forwards and centers. Whereas the top coaches more often play 4 guards and 5 forwards and centers than they do 5 guards and 4 forwards and centers. Karl was short at least one forward or center and arguably he was short two forwards or centers.

With regard to specific guards that Karl insists on playing: it is obvious that Renaldo Balkman would be more important to the Nuggets winning both regular season and playoff games than would 2-guard Joey Graham and 1-guard Anthony Carter. Aaron Afflalo is working out great for the Nuggets, and obviously Chauncey Billups and J.R. Smith are your bread and butter. But to be cavalierly playing Graham and/or Carter over Balkman is a gross error.

Somehow, George Karl thinks that dedicated and fast guards can overcome the huge defensive liabilities you have when you are starved for long players up front. This is not true both in the regular season and in the playoffs. I don’t care how good your guards are, you can’t easily win basketball games when you have too many of them and when as a result you put a big sign up in your paint: “Come on in, we are keeping the paint open early and late for your scoring convenience”.

Don't Miss These Regular Season Games That Preview the 2010 Playoffs

2010-01-01T05:05:00.000-08:00

Alright you basketball animals, here we have something really convenient and useful: the schedule for the rest of the regular season with all the playoff preview games among the top teams highlighted. Games between any of the major contenders, wild card contenders, and long shot contenders are highlighted in the schedule that follows.

This is the state of the art way to quickly see what the best games of the coming days, weeks, and months are. Plan accordingly. Make sure you clear your schedule for those games in yellow. The swag is on for those games.

Sorry to Trailblazers, Heat, Rockets, and Jazz fans; none of your games are highlighted. You have decent teams, and you are close to being long shot contenders, but you do not quite qualify to be that this year. The Porland Trailblazers are heavily damaged by injuries. The Miami Heat are missing at least one key offensive player to go along with Dywane Wade and one key defensive player to go with Udonis Haslem and Jermaine O'Neal. The Houston Rockets are extremely well coached, but they, like Miami, need a key offensive player and a key defensive player to be able to contend. The Utah Jazz are a bad road team and a bad 3-point shooting team, and no offense to one of the greatest coaches of all time, but I do honestly believe that the Jazz need some new coaches.

First the list of the contenders and then the regular season schedule with games among the contenders highlighted.

CURRENT MAJOR CONTENDERS
Los Angeles Lakers--Quest Specialization
Cleveland Cavaliers--Quest Specialization
Boston Celtics

CURRENT WILD CARD CONTENDERS
Orlando Magic
Dallas Mavericks
Atlanta Hawks

CURRENT LONG SHOT CONTENDERS
Denver Nuggets
San Antonio Spurs
Phoenix Suns

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t1oGAwx1pJzfvV1RvItcGOA&single=true&gid=1&output=html

The Hustle and Flow has Moved from Denver to Dallas

2009-12-28T11:36:00.000-08:00

We thought it would happen and now it has: the Dallas Mavericks have the capability to beat the Denver Nuggets whenever and wherever. Last year, with everything going for them including the power of good luck, the Nuggets made Mavericks owner Marc Cuban ballistic when they swept the Mavericks 4 games to 0 in the regular season and also beat them in a playoff series, 4 games to 1.

But on Sunday night Dec. 27, things done changed. The strikingly and expertly revamped Mavericks came to the Mile High City where supposedly no one but Denver wins anymore and, playing on back to back nights, defeated the rested Denver Nuggets in their own building 104-96. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

It was the kind of win that was much, much bigger than the score indicates; Denver has enough raw offensive talent to keep a score respectable even when they lose big. And they lost very big in this one.

Make no mistake, it was a very, very big Dallas win and, unless things radically change or unless injuries mess things up, you can expect that Dallas will defeat Denver in the playoffs should they play. But that is NOT an official prediction or a “guarantee;” don’t expect me to apologize if somehow Denver beats Dallas in the playoffs; but do expect me to explain it.

The Mavericks have a very solid, very dependable veteran team that is one of the deepest rosters in the NBA. The 8th best player on the Mavericks is better than the 8th best player on almost all of the other teams, maybe all of them. Mavs Coach Rick Carlisle has his hands full making sure he shares the available playing time well and making sure he has the best 5-man combos out there. He is very, very good at this.

The reason I really loved this game enough to write a Report about it is that Dallas is doing most of the most important things Quest recommends for winning the Quest, namely, they are running a semi-organized, well disciplined, well designed offense that has playmaking identity, good passing, good balance between paint and outside scoring, and good balance between the scorers. The easy offensive shortcuts (like over weighting fast breaks, fast pace in general, and too many isolations by volume scorers and star players) that hurt your chances to win playoff games later are being avoided as a result of the expert coaching from Rick Carlisle and the intelligence and heavy experience of the Mavericks players. You could not ask for anything more from a pro NBA offense than was shown by the Mavericks in this game.

The Dallas offense was so good that superstar Dirk Nowitzki did not even have to play a leading role in that offense. The best offenses feature a superstar who can take charge and play a dominant role, but also feature enough other good offensive players and enough optimal strategy and tactics that the team can sometimes win with the superstar playing a much smaller role. It’s like an on-off switch: you can set that switch according to what is best for the team for any particular game. Nowitzki was just 6 of 15 overall, 1 of 2 on threes, and he scored 13 points in 39 minutes of playing time, which is small potatoes for him.

Dallas is also playing smart, energetic defense game after game; maybe not as energetic and certainly not as aggressive as the Nuggets’ defense last year, but energetic enough to get the job done. Unlike last year, the Mavericks this year are leading with their defense. On defense, Dallas is so far the 5th best defense in the league, versus only the 17th best last year. After their excellent off-season acquisitions, which included underrated Shawn Marion and underrated Drew Gooden, the Mavericks have changed their stripes and have defensively become more than good enough to contend for a Ring.

You would think the Mavericks are a top five offensive team from this game, but they are actually only 12th so far. In fact, it was last season that they were the 5th best offense. Look for this year’s Mavericks’ offense to rise a few ranks before this year is done. If the offense does in fact improve during the rest of the season, expect the Mavericks to be not only able to defeat Denver relatively easily, but expect them to be a dangerous opponent for the Lakers in the 2010 West final.

For more information about the improved and dangerous (to the Lakers) Mavericks, see this report and also this report.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets have the 3rd best offense in the NBA so far, one fueled mostly by raw talent, but only the 17th best defense. Last year, the Nuggets had the 7th best offense and the 8th best defense. The Nuggets have dropped off a lot defensively this year and they are not quite good enough so far to have any chance at all to compete for a Championship.

NUGGETS’ DEFENDING HAS SEEN BETTER DAYS
Why have the Nuggets dropped off defensively? The main thing seems to be that they simply are not playing with as much energy and athleticism on defense as they did last year. Players such as Chris Anderson and Nene have lost a step or two. When we see the Real Player Ratings for the Nuggets, we'll find out more about which players are most responsible for the drop-off by looking closely at and comparing last year's and this year's defensive sub ratings and the hidden defending ratings.

Apparently, the Nuggets think that they learned enough and achieved enough last year that they can substitute smart defending for very energetic defending to some extent. However, this switch is seldom more than an even exchange, because high energy on defense is the single most rare and prized thing you can have for defense and you should never give it up if you don't have to. This is sports; you can’t accomplish everything by outthinking your opponents, even though you might think that if you read enough Quest for the Ring!

The Nuggets’ defense last year was truly very good, and it won some games in both the regular and in the playoffs that would have been losses if the defensive approach had been different. The main bad thing about it was that the Nuggets reserved the right to more or less foul on purpose in some games, but even that turned out to be much less of a bad thing than was thought. Apparently, if you get lucky, fouling at will if you think you have to backfires only when and if you reach a Conference Final, when all such childish games are finally penalized if they were not before then.

For the Nuggets, the attempt to substitute smart defending for last year’s ultra high energy defending has so far amounted to a net loss. This is because the Nuggets are really not playing much smarter on defense this year than last. One tactical shortfall is that the Nuggets are doing too much defensive coverage switching. The big players are switching out off of screens and pick and rolls and leaving lanes and gaps open in the paint too often.

The Nuggets are over thinking and overdoing the switching thing and are underestimating the importance of avoiding large match-up gaps, such as a guard trying to guard a center. Whoever is closest to the rolling player should defend that player more often rather than mandating that some specific player based on the pick and roll itself cover him. There is only one thing worse than excessive reliance on man to man defending (and refusal to play zone even when it is called for) and that is when on top of man to man your players are over switching (or switching without regard to match-up gaps) off screens and pick and rolls.

Instead of being obsessive about making sure there is a man on every offensive player at all times, even if your bigs end up out of paint defending position so you get burned in the paint all the time, you need to know where the ball is likely to go and you need to defend the ball where it is going. The objective is to stop the ball from going in the hoop, not to earn style points for maintaining very nice looking switching off pick and rolls.

The Nuggets do not have a single outstanding rebounder, so unless they make it a team priority to improve defensive rebounding, they are not going to be a very good rebounding team. Rebounding is low hanging fruit: if you intend to compete for a Ring, you usually have to accomplish the relatively easy task of having above average defensive rebounding. George Karl and the Nuggets have been unable so far to get the defensive rebounding to the minimum level it should be at for a credible attempt to win a Ring.

GEORGE KARL IS BLOWING IT BY NOT PLAYING RENALDO BALKMAN
(How is that for an honest sub header, laugh out loud). Poor tactics on some of the defensive plays are one thing; perhaps coaches and/or players will correct this later on. But not having a very important defensive asset in there is most definitely a serous mistake.

This season we have George Karl, after being surprisingly generous last year with playing time for reserves, returning this year to his traditional stingy ways. Last year, defensively skilled and very defensively dedicated Renaldo Balkman was given a good deal of playing time, which helped Denver be great on defense. But this year, Balkman is riding the bench as Denver’s defense suffers the big drop-off. Even by Karl’s standards, this is becoming a bigger and bigger blunder with each passing game that Balkman does not play; Balkman is the guy who we know for a fact can cut the Nuggets’ big paint defending and defensive rebounding problems down to size. But he can’t do that sitting on the bench.

At 2-guard, Daunte Jones was traded to Indiana and Aaron Afflalo was acquired from Detroit to take his place as “The guy who will start in front of J.R. Smith at all costs” (laugh out loud). Even though Jones was not a very good rebounder, and even though his man to man defending was and is overrated, he did have this knack for disrupting the flow of the other team’s offense. If there was an “assists prevented,” stat, Daunte Jones would be right there near the top. Same thing for “shots never attempted because Daunte Jones is all up in the shooter's face.” He would lead in that, too.

The bottom line is that Afflalo for Jones is a big net loss for Denver on defense, even though Afflalo is a decent defender. Unlike Jones, Afflalo doesn’t have any hidden defensive qualities: what you see in the box score and by watching the game is what you get from Afflalo, whereas with Daunte Jones there was other interesting defensive stuff going on behind the scenes. Jones was (and I assume still is) able to get under the skin and disrupt the thinking and actions of guards that he guards.

As for offense, due to being chock loaded with raw talent the Nuggets are doing well in the regular season this year. However, as we have stated in numerous reports, the Nuggets’ offense is not well designed for winning playoff games.

All in all it was a fantastic game for the Mavericks and it has been a fantastic start for them this season. Dallas is the surprise upside team of the West this year, whereas the Atlanta Hawks are the surprise upside team in the East. In the Dec. 27 game, the Mavericks shot 50% from the field, made 25 assists, had extremely excellent playmaking identity from Jason Kidd and Jason Terry, won the rebounding battle despite not needing many offensive rebounds, and earned more than their share of free throws.

Who cares that Dirk Nowitzki did not get a single free throw if Josh Howard earns 10, Drew Gooden earns 7, Eric Dampier earns 5, Jason Terry earns 2, and Jason Kidd earned 2. This is not your grandfathers' Mavericks we are talking about.

Hustle on defense plus flow on offense eventually leads to playoff wins. I see a lot of playoff wins in the Mavericks’ near future.

Real Team Ratings as of December 26, 2009

2009-12-26T22:35:00.000-08:00

REAL TEAM RATINGS
NBA 2009-10 REGULAR SEASON
AS OF DECEMBER 26, 2009
1. Boston Celtics 41.40
2. Atlanta Hawks 37.40
3. Los Angeles Lakers 33.40
4. Cleveland Cavaliers 33.40
5. Dallas Mavericks 25.10
6. Denver Nuggets 25.00
7. Orlando Magic 25.00
8. Portland Trail Blazers 19.60
9. San Antonio Spurs 8.00
10. Utah Jazz -1.50
11. Phoenix Suns -2.00
12. Miami Heat -3.20
13. Houston Rockets -3.30
14. Charlotte Bobcats -4.60
15. Milwaukee Bucks -5.70
16. Oklahoma City Thunder -10.40
17. Memphis Grizzlies -18.00
18. New York Knicks -20.30
19. New Orleans Hornets -21.00
20. Washington Wizards -21.30
21. Sacramento Kings -23.10
22. Detroit Pistons -26.50
23. Indiana Pacers -28.90
24. Los Angeles Clippers -29.80
25. Toronto Raptors -30.60
26. Philadelphia 76ers -37.80
27. Chicago Bulls -38.80
28. Golden State Warriors -39.00
29. Minnesota Timberwolves -63.70
30. New Jersey Nets -64.50

The Boston Celtics have a small lead over the Hawks, the Lakers, and the Cavaliers so far in this years Quest for the Ring. The Atlanta Hawks are for real so far this season and are the biggest upside surprise. The Cavaliers and Lakers are even up a little ways behind surprising Atlanta. Do not be fooled by the big Cavaliers victory over LA on Christmas; any team can have a bad game now and then.

The Mavericks, the Nuggets, and the Magic, who are in a 3-way tie for 5th, 6th, and 7th, trail Boston and those other three teams already mentioned, but not yet by a large amount: the season is still too young to be "cemented in stone".

The Blazers are in 9th and are not completely out of it according to RTR, but after injury adjustments are applied they would most definitely be out of this years's Quest. The Spurs are surprisingly uncompetitive with the very best teams this year.

BRIEF EXCERPTS FROM THE EXTENSIVE USER GUIDE FOR REAL TEAM RATINGS
Remember that the Real Team Ratings (RTR) is NOT simply a rating of how well the teams are doing in the regular season. Instead, it is a rating system designed to reveal the capability of winning playoff games and series of each team.

The foundation of RTR is defensive efficiency, offensive efficiency, and net per game points differential. On top of these, several careful and statistically valid adjustments are made to allow the RTR to accurately reflect some of the known factors that always impact winning in the playoffs. Factors that usually impact winning are NOT included; only factors that always impact winning are included.

RTR CAN be roughly used to predict who will win playoff series. However, there are of course factors not included in the RTR. One factor not included can be huge and can easily switch a series: injuries. Among factors not included in RTR that always impact winning playoff games, injuries is by far the biggest one.

INTERPRETING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TEAMS
SCALE ASSUMING THE HIGHER TEAM HAS HOME COURT ADVANTAGE
Important Note: Injury adjustments are not included. For larger differences, the higher rated team would almost always have to have injury problems in order to lose. The probabilities shown reflect the risk of injuries as much as all other uncertain factors combined.

0 to 5.9 Complete toss-up: flip a coin
6 to 11.9 Roughly 60% chance the higher team will win
12 to 17.9 Roughly 70% chance the higher team will win
18 to 23.9 Roughly 80% chance the higher team will win
24 to 29.9 Roughly 89% chance the higher team will win
30 to 35.9 Roughly 95% chance the higher team will win
36 to 41.9 Roughly 98% chance the higher team will win
42 to 47.9 Roughly 99% chance the higher team will win
48 or more Roughly 100% chance the higher team will win

SCALE ASSUMING THE LOWER TEAM HAS HOME COURT ADVANTAGE
Important Note: Injury adjustments are not included. For larger differences, the higher rated team would almost always have to have injury problems in order to lose. The probabilities shown reflect the risk of injuries as much as all other uncertain factors combined.

0 to 5.9 Complete toss-up: flip a coin
6 to 11.9 Complete toss-up: flip a coin
12 to 17.9 Roughly 60% chance the higher team will win despite not having home court advantage.
18 to 23.9 Roughly 70% chance the higher team will win despite not having home court advantage.
24 to 29.9 Roughly 80% chance the higher team will win despite not having home court advnatage.
30 to 35.9 Roughly 89% chance the higher team will win despite not having home court advnatage.
36 and more: Will neve rhappen because whenever the difference is this much the higher team will have the home court advantage 100% of the time.

MANUAL INJURY ADJUSTMENTS
We have developed an injury adjustment for RTR, which is extensively described in the User Guide. Currently, injury adjustments have to be done manually using instructions in the User Guide. This will be required indefinitely, because it appears to be more trouble than it's worth to include the "injury adjustment" in the RTR itself.

There are many complications involving the impact of injuries on who is going to win playoff games. I'll mention a few of them. One huge problem is that the injury situation changes more rapidly than any of the other factors. Another problem is that early season injuries are no where near as bad for the playoffs as are late season injuries. Yet another problem is that there always seems to be conflicting information out there about just how bad different injuries are.

COACHING
Another significant factor that is not completely included in RTR is coaching that is more successful in the regular season than in the playoffs. Certain coaches deploy offensive and/or defensive strategies in the regular that do not work as well in the playoffs as they do in the regular season. A team using this kind of strategy makes the playoffs but sooner or later gets bounced in the playoffs by a team using one or more strategies rewarded by basketball.

In other words, and more broadly, it is believed by us here at Quest that how a team is coached, and what schemes it is using on offense and defense, can have a different impact in the playoffs than it did in the regular season. This would not be picked up by the RTR.

The negative impact on RTR of such coaching is believed to be between small and not so small, up to about 20 RTR points. A 15-20 point hit would be plenty big enough to swing any close series. Coaches who coach well in the regular season but not in the playoffs will cost their teams playoff series they probably could have won, although this will not happen in every series. It will happen mostly in series where the RTR differential is between 5 and 20 points. This type of coaching will certainly be in the long run ruinous to the objective of going as far as possible in the playoffs.

One of the primary objectives of the Quest for the Ring is to identify and explain offensive and defensive strategies that work better in the regular season than they do in the playoffs, and vice versa.

Other than missing the regular versus playoffs coaching differential, coaching is mostly reflected in the RTR.

Factors other than injuries and coaching that are not in the RTR are believed at this time to be small and probably insignificant.

This has been a very small sample of what is in the User Guide. For complete details regarding how the Real Team Ratings are designed and why they work, see the User Guide.

Darth Vader Sets out to Destroy The Quest for the Ring, Part One

2009-12-26T17:34:00.000-08:00

If you don't know already from reading the previous Report, George Karl and probably some unknown cronies of his are the Darth Vader of basketball, laugh out loud. Just as in the movies, old Darth can really do some unexpected damage and put a lot of fear into the atmosphere when he gets lucky with one of his diabolical schemes.

As promised in the prequel to this review of the only Quest Report in history to be declared an error after publication, we are now going to go over each of the 16 reasons given in that Report for why the Denver Nuggets were supposedly, definitely not going to win any playoff series in 2009. They did win a series, and we actually can see why if we find out that somehow Darth and the Nuggets avoided most of these sixteen things from happening.

The idea from that January 14 Report that turned out to be very wrong was that although not all of the 16 things would go wrong for the Nuggets in the playoffs, enough of them would go wrong that the Nuggets would fail to win a series. Technically, the Nuggets were not supposed to win more than two playoff games; whereas they actually won ten.

I now take them one by one and break down what happened and why.

REASON ONE WHY THE NUGGETS WERE TO NOT WIN ANY PLAYOFF SERIES

1. The Nuggets’ opponent will finally realize that this is not really Carmelo Anthony’s team anymore, if it ever was, and that Carmelo Anthony is not the player who can or will beat you in more than one or two games in a 4-6 games playoff series. Carmelo Anthony has rebounding duties now and, although in a surprise development he has a three point shot for a change, his garden variety jump shooting is nothing much to worry about anymore as a result of his agreeing to being downsized in the offense.

Yes it's true, George Karl and the Nuggets have shot themselves in the foot by telling Carmelo Anthony to "not worry about scoring" anymore. They decided that they can do without having available to them a player who can dominate scoring to one extent to another. Karl believes in what you might call the Indirect Scoring Theory of basketball, which states that a good offense in general and good scoring in particular emerges indirectly from other factors, which are thought of in this theory as more fundamental, things such as, you guessed it, aggressive man to man defending and hustling for loose balls. However, unfortunately, there isn't in real life an automatic connection between those kinds of things and the number of points scored, at least not to the extent needed to win playoff games against quality offensive teams.

The opponent will realize that Chauncey Billups and to a lesser extent Nene are the only players on the Nuggets who can possibly endanger their winning the playoff series. With the downsizing of Carmelo Anthony having made the shortage worse, the Nuggets do not have any where near enough experienced playoff warriors to pose a real threat to win a playoff series against any reasonably well managed or reasonably playoff-experienced team.

HOW REASON ONE PLAYED OUT
This reason why the Nuggets would lose in the playoffs, which was supposed to be a big one, didn’t play out at all, because Carmelo Anthony agreed with Quest for the Ring and broke out of the box that George Karl tried to put him in. New Orleans, Dallas, and Los Angeles all had to contend with the classic Carmelo Anthony, the highly skilled scoring maniac version.

That Anthony sided with Quest against Karl was a surprise mainly because during the regular season Anthony had clearly ramped down shooting and scoring in favor of rebounding and assisting. Melo's defensive rebounding percentage rate shrunk from 17.0% in the regular to 13.3% in the playoffs. Whereas his scoring rate jumped from 23.8 points in the regular to 25.6 points in the playoffs per 36 minutes. Whereas even great scorers usually see a big drop off in scoring in the playoffs since they are playing much better defenses then.

But although it was a surprise, that Anthony agreed with Quest for the Ring and changed back to the classic version for the playoffs was not a shock, because most basketball players are in fact smart enough to realize that you don’t win a Championship by trying to follow vague “well rounded player” formulas.

REASON TWO WHY THE NUGGETS WERE TO NOT WIN ANY PLAYOFF SERIES

Point guard Chauncey Billups, for all practical purposes, is the offensive Coach of the Nuggets, and arguably the Coach of the team as a whole. As such, he deserves to get a whole lot of defensive extra attention. All other Nuggets are afraid of the wrath of George Karl were they to show any real initiative with respect to being a playmaker. So once again, the opponent must and will double and hassle Billups all game every game.

HOW REASON TWO PLAYED OUT
Incidentally, the sarcastic wording of this and a few of the other reasons reflect the fact that at the time it was written, I essentially had a perfect record of explaining how basketball playoff games are won and why and how George Karl is often wrong about how he coaches. You know what they say: pride goeth before the fall...

You can see that the theory was that Anthony would be shooting himself in the foot by doing what Karl wanted and then the playoff opponent would see that and concentrate on Billups. But obviously, when Anthony decided that Karl was not correct in telling him to not go all out for scoring, the other teams were in big trouble from the get go if they assumed that Anthony was going to be limited as he was during most of the regular season.

In game one of the Mavericks–Nuggets series, the Mavericks did indeed assume that it was actually more important to contain Billups than Anthony, and they did contain Billups very well in that game. But when in game one Anthony didn’t play by the Karl rules, and when the Nuggets’ fast breaking offense based mostly on their defense kicked into an extremely high gear, the Mavericks quickly changed their minds and decided to starting in game two treat Anthony and Billups as equally dangerous, and to give the Nuggets’ overall offense a lot more respect in general.

But that change in who to be most worried about was not enough for the Mavericks’ defense. As the Quest report series for Mavericks-Nuggets shows, the Mavericks were caught a little too banged up (specifically, they could not afford to have Josh Howard on weak ankles) and not defensively tough enough to be able to successfully contend with the Nuggets flawed in theory, ultimately limited, but very high octane and relatively successful offense,

It wasn’t just that the Mavericks’ defense “did not match up well” with the Nuggets’ offense. Rather, it was that no defense matched up well with the Nuggets’ offense, and that was the whole secret of the success of it. Karl and company (Darth Vader) were trying to pull a fast one over their playoff opponents, both figuratively and literally, just as they did to opponents over and over during the regular season.

And so the Nuggets did overwhelm the Mavericks with raw talent, a defense first mentality, aggressiveness, energy, and speed, at least up until the Lakers, just barely in time as it were, saw through the Nuggets’ game and realized that the Nuggets had not really come up with a true winning strategy. The Nuggets had achieved most of what is needed to win the Quest other than winning strategies for offense and defense, but lacking those they were doomed to eventually fell flat.

The relatively close call for the Lakers will hopefully teach Phil Jackson to keep Quest for the Ring on his reading list, laugh out loud.

The NBA Championship is most likely never going to be won by a team that bases their offense almost entirely on pace and fast breaking off of a very aggressive defense. If you have little in the way of offensive play making and strategy, you are not going to be winning a ring. Nor is the Championship ever going to be won by a team that on defense thinks that aggressiveness and energy, up to and including a high fouling rate, is more important than skilled and smart defending.

REASON THREE WHY THE NUGGETS WERE TO NOT WIN ANY PLAYOFF SERIES

With Nene you want to get him into foul trouble, pure and simple. What you do is simple: go at him early and often offensively. Don’t try to foul him as much as you try to get him to foul you. The Nuggets are still a high turnover team, and that includes Nene. Do not be overly concerned that Nene has such a high field goal percentage. He hardly tries any midrange jumpers, and he will turn it over often enough to keep the damage from all his point blank layups and dunks within reason.

HOW REASON THREE PLAYED OUT
Well let’s check how Nene did in the Mavericks series. RPR stands for Real Player Rating, which is one of the most important Quest performance measures.

NENE IN THE MAVERICKS—NUGGETS SERIES
Game One: RPR .983, 2 fouls, 3 turnovers, 24 points; the Nuggets as a whole had 14 turnovers
Game Two: RPR .808, 2 fouls, 1 turnover, 25 points,; the Nuggets as a whole had 9 turnovers
Game Three: RPR .375, 5 fouls, 2 turnovers, 5 points; the Nuggets as a whole had 7 turnovers
Game Four: RPR .376, 5 fouls, 2 turnovers, 9 points; the Nuggets as a whole had 11 turnovers
Game Five: RPR .519, 4 fouls, 4 turnovers, 17 points; the Nuggets as a whole had 13 turnovers.

So there you have it. As previously reported the referees were letting some Nuggets fouls go in games one and two, most likely including a few Nene fouls. When the series went to Dallas, all of a sudden Nene was virtually fouling out. With respect to Nene turnovers, in games one and five the problem was there but his turnovers were more reasonable in games two, three, and four.

Nene was hobbled as we predicted, but only in games three, four, and five. (The series was effectively over before game five ever tipped so Nene’s game five is technically irrelevant). But in games one and two, Nene was contained by neither the Mavericks nor the referees, and he was an extremely important reason why the Nuggets were able to steamroll the Mavericks in those games.

Overall Nuggets turnovers were very, very low; the average number of turnovers in a game is about 14 and the Nuggets averaged only 10.8 turnovers a game. This shows you how determined the Nuggets were to prove Quest wrong and win a series after five straight seasons of losing quickly in the first round. It also of course shows you that Dallas in 2008-09 was not aggressive and energetic enough on defense. On defense you need skills but you also need aggressiveness and energy. Just one of those is not going to do it for you. There were only four teams whose opponents committed fewer turnovers than the Mavericks’ opponents committed. This shows you that the Mavericks were not forcing enough turnovers.

The Lakers and the Nuggets were near the top for forcing turnovers, while Orlando was, like Dallas, near the bottom. We all know how Orlando flamed out in the Championship, and one of the reasons was their inability to force a turnover or two in critical situations. Forcing a turnover, especially with a steal, is one of the very best ways to change momentum in a game, and so it is one of the very best ways for an underdog team to help itself to win a game and perhaps even score an upset in a playoff series.

Allen Iverson back when he took the 76’ers to the 2001 Championship was extremely good at getting steals that hardly anyone else was going to get and this is one of the important reasons explaining how the 76’ers were able to shock the East and the entire basketball world and make it to that Championship.

REASON FOUR WHY THE NUGGETS WERE TO NOT WIN ANY PLAYOFF SERIES

The four best offensive players on the Nuggets are all relatively high turnover rate players: Carmelo Anthony, Nene, and J.R. Smith. A good opponent will make sure it goes after these players and forces as many turnovers by them as possible. Offensive fouls are a particular kind of turnover, and all three of these Nuggets have “style problems” with the refs and are therefore vulnerable to being called for offensive fouls at a higher than typical rate. In recent years, Carmelo Anthony has been hammered in the playoffs with a large number of offensive foul calls against him.

HOW REASON FOUR PLAYED OUT
The scenario in this reason the Nuggets would lose did not even come close to coming true, as explained already in reason number three. Although the Nuggets were a high turnover team in 2008-09, the Mavericks were completely unable to force turnovers to any extent at all, leaving them vulnerable to being rolled. The Nuggets had a major vulnerability with respect to turnovers that the Mavericks totally ignored or were unable to exploit. As a result, when the Mavericks fell behind the Nuggets in games one and two, they were unable to change the momentum and get back into the game by forcing a few turnovers.

It is interesting to note that so far in 2009-10, the Nuggets are now an average turnover team, which is considered very positive with respect to winning the Quest. An average number of turnovers is sometimes better than being below average; the lowest turnover teams are sometimes (not always) ones whose offense is too predictable and/or too lacking a passing game to be able to win the Quest. The bottom line is that although turnovers are not among the very most important factors for determining who wins the Quest, they are not exactly unimportant either.

REASON FIVE WHY THE NUGGETS WERE TO NOT WIN ANY PLAYOFF SERIES

Generally, the coaches of the Nuggets’ opponent will most of the time correctly choose the defensive matchups that are best for them, and make the correct
decision between zone and man to man defending. Meanwhile, the Nuggets’ coaching
staff will be over relying on man to man defending. The Nuggets in at least two
or three playoff games will have to reduce the minutes of two or more of their
aggressive man to man defenders as a result of foul trouble, particularly if the
Nuggets play teams such as the Spurs and the Jazz who are highly trained at
drawing fouls and who are experts at “playing the referees” in general, whereas
the Nuggets, being newcomers to the game of milking the referees, are mere
amateurs.

HOW REASON FIVE PLAYED OUT
Well, the Nuggets actually looked like long-time experts at exploiting the referees. In fact, since they were simultaneously using on defense a high fouling strategy and on offense a high getting fouled strategy and both worked well in both the Hornets and the Mavericks series, the Nuggets in those two series looked like one of the all-time greatest referee exploiters laugh out loud.

In quarter four of game two, when obviously the Mavericks were very much still alive in the series, Rick Carlisle made a mockery of my prediction that the coach of the Nuggets opponent would make good defensive decisions in key situations.

In this game, which was game two in Denver, the Mavs and Nugs played almost even through three quarters; it was 86-83 Denver after three. Mavericks superstar Dirk Nowitzki asked for and received extra rest time at the beginning of the 4th quarter.

The problem was that Rick Carlisle then installed a very small lineup at the start of the 4th, which was promptly routed by the Nuggets due to the Nuggets' relentless driving into the paint, mixed up nicely with a fast breaking attack. The Mavs super small lineup to start the 4th was:

--JJ Barea PG, 6'0"
--Jason Terry PG, 6'2"
--Antoine Wright SG, 6'7"
--Brandon Bass PF, 6'8"
--James Singleton PF, 6'8"

This lineup resulted in the Nuggets going on a devastating 16-2 run, making it 102-85 Nuggets with six minutes left in the game. The Mavericks had gone from very much alive in the game and in the series to dead in the game and on life support in the series. You see what can happen when a coach makes a bad decision? Never underestimate how much bad (or how much good) a coach can do in a game between relatively evenly matched pro basketball teams. The force is with the coaches should they be able to use it correctly.

Also, Carlisle should have severely reduced Eric Dampier’s minutes in favor of other forwards and centers. Assuming he wasn’t injured, James Singleton should have received a lot more playing time than he did.

See this report for still more details.

Carlisle is generally a good defensive coach and he does not usually make mistakes of this magnitude. In fact, to his credit, Carlisle realized relatively quickly that the Nuggets were using a unique, highly aggressive, high fouling strategy on defense, a strategy seldom seen because (a) most coaches think that a high fouling strategy has more costs than benefits and (b) often when it is used a high fouling strategy is nullified by the referees calling a lot of fouls and by the fouled players making their free throws. Whenever the referees call those extra fouls, a team running this gamble of a strategy is probably going to lose the game.

However, as shown in games one and two, when ironically the Nuggets were called for very, very few fouls the referees do not always ramp up their foul calling in response to a highly aggressive defense that often resorts to intentionally fouling a lot. We still don't know exactly how often the referees will respond with more foul calls and how often they will take it easy on teams who when push comes to shove cross the line from very aggressive defending (which the referees seem to respect quite a bit) to more or less intentionally fouling (which the referees like everyone else hate).

Let me note in fairness, though, that the Nuggets mostly didn't have to actually cross the line between aggressive defending and intentional fouling in games one and two, because the Nuggets were mostly using energy and speed as opposed to aggressiveness and fouling in those games and, meanwhile, the Dallas offense simply could not get fully untracked; see part two of this Report for more on that subject. The referees should have called a few more fouls against the Nuggets in games one and two, but not a lot more, and the games still would have been won by Denver even if the referees had called a few more fouls on them.

Long before the Mavericks series took place, Quest warned everyone including potential Nuggets playoff opponents that this is what the Nuggets were doing, and we also gave the recommended counter move, which was to respond in kind and wait until the referees started calling a lot of fouls so as to damp down all the excess fouling and to thereby prevent the game from spinning completely out of control. Carlisle understood the situation accurately and followed what Quest recommended exactly in game three.

REASON SIX WHY THE NUGGETS WERE TO NOT WIN ANY PLAYOFF SERIES

J.R. Smith is extremely dangerous, but much more in theory than in reality, and only in the regular season most likely. In practice the Nuggets have made Smith much less dangerous than he could be. But the Nuggets’ opponent will, at the first sign that J.R. Smith may go on a tear of hitting a bunch of threes and of impressive drives to the hoop, do whatever is necessary to force him to lose his confidence, including hard fouling, double covering, going for steals and getting a couple of them off of him, and running a much larger number of offensive plays than otherwise through whoever he is covering. Good coaches know that to cool down a streaky offensive player, you can make him work harder and attempt to break down his overall confidence by beating him when he is on defense.

Good playoff coaches will be aware that as a result of Smith being considered the “black sheep” by the Nuggets personality police, that he is vulnerable to losing his confidence, and is also vulnerable to having his minutes cut way back in the playoffs by Personality Police Chief George Karl. Smith’s personality problem is not that he has a bad personality as the Nuggets falsely believe, but that he has an immature personality. But George Karl and those who blindly support him have created the impression in J.R.’s mind that there is something wrong with his personality and that he is lacking something mentally that other players have, that he should and must have.

So Mr. Karl has made the impact of Smith’s immature personality as bad as possible for the Nuggets, by refusing to start him regardless of how well he plays, by recklessly and publicly criticizing him for minor things, by leaving him in toss up games late in the 4th quarter, which is the one context that J.R.’s immature personality can harm your team, and by, amazingly, refusing to even talk off court to the young shooting guard were he to want to discuss something.

As a result of being immature to begin with, and as a result of George Karl recklessly and severely making J.R. much more vulnerable to losing his confidence in high pressure games than he already was, J.R. Smith has been largely or completely a non-factor so far in almost all playoff games. Smith’s turnover rate has continued to be high even as his offensive and defensive game has become more mature and polished overall. There is no reason to believe that Smith’s big confidence vulnerability will not continue for most playoff games this year. However, if somehow Smith is showing signs that he might break out of the box that the Nuggets have put him in, it should be easy to put him back in that box by aggressively defending, fouling, and running plays at the extremely talented but immature shooting guard.

HOW REASON SIX PLAYED OUT
Well let’s check this out:

J.R. SMITH IN THE MAVERICKS-NUGGETS SERIES
Game One: RPR: .966, 7/13 shooting, 0/2 on threes, 0 turnovers, 15 points
Game Two: RPR: 1.262, 6/10 shooting, 3/7 on threes, 0 turnovers, 21 points
Game Three: RPR: .511, 3/10 shooting, 1/4 on threes, 0 turnovers, 10 points
Game Four: RPR .605, 7/10 shooting, 2/3 on threes, 1 turnover, 19 points
Game Five: RPR .964, 5/13 shooting, 4/10 on threes, 1 turnover, 18 points

We thought Smith would be limited to one outstanding game per series but as you can see he had three outstanding games in this one. Only a minority of players can ever exceed 1.200 RPR in a playoff game and Smith is one of them.

Clearly, this reason did not play out like we thought it might. Even in the two Dallas games (game three and four) you could hardly say that Smith tanked or didn’t have enough confidence or choked or anything like that. He was still decent even in those Dallas games; his famous inconsistency was no where near as extreme in this series as it was so often in the past.

The only conclusion you can make is that this reason did not play out as we thought it might to any extent. It turns out that being coached by George Karl does not necessarily ruin your confidence and composure for life, laugh out loud. I guess J.R. Smith, for all his mysteriousness and inconsistency, is not someone who is going to be scarred for life by bad coaching. Who would have known unless the crazy experiment had been run?

The review of the sixteen reasons the Nuggets were going to lose continues in part 2.

THE DARTH VADER OF BASKETBALL

The Infamous January 14, 2009 Report and How the "Darth Vader" of Basketball Almost Succeeded at Destroying Quest for the Ring Because of it

2009-12-26T04:33:00.000-08:00

There have been a total of about 550 Quest for the Ring Reports, roughly 370 of which contain information about basketball that I contend is all factually correct and the other 180 being mostly pre-formatted performance reports and entertainment. Of the roughly 370 Reports that describe basketball in exact detail and explain in detail how games are won and lost, especially playoff games, just one of them has been declared as incorrect subsequent to publication.

I am about to go over with a magnifying glass everything that was claimed in the Report that was in error noting what was correct but especially concentrating on what was incorrect and why. The objectives will be:

1. To satisfy my urge for and my tradition of perfection.
2. To hopefully prevent any additional errors in the future.
3. To explain how the errors in the Report occurred.
4. To explain what has been learned about playoff pro basketball as a result of reviewing the incorrect Report in detail, especially the errors.

Number 4 is the most important objective as you might expect.

The report that contained a few errors was published on January 14, 2009, and it was supposed to have been one of the most important Reports of the year. (It backfired.) The year, in turn, which was the third year, was supposed to be the most important of the three years to date. So the blunders in this Report were and are truly serious, and correcting them is more or less mandatory.

We have actually already set the record straight about many of the details associated with the Report in error in various other articles that came out during the summer and fall, but there are still the necessities of making sure we have corrected all of the errors, of having a mea culpa in one place, and of summarizing one final time what the 2009 Nuggets taught us.

Please don’t ever think that Quest for the Ring is perfect. But do think that unlike other sites, many of which don’t get upset about errors and/or don’t even notice they have made errors, Quest does continually monitor for errors and always corrects all errors other than trivial ones.

ABOUT PREDICTIONS
Most writers who cover the whole NBA make a lot of predictions about who is going to win what. Many have detailed preseason predictions. But they are doing so as much for fun and entertainment as for any serious reasons. The prediction writers not only do not issue anything close to a guarantee that they are correct, they often sort of joke about how they were wrong when the results are in.

Whereas my January 2009 prediction that the Nuggets would not win a playoff series was supposed to be very close to a guarantee, with the only out being a major unexpected injury to one or more players on the team the Nuggets were to play. But as if to emphasize how wrong that Report was, I was so charged up (and over confident?) at the time that I did not even mention at the time how an injury or two could completely invalidate my "guarantee" in the Report in question.

The whole approach was in 20/20 hindsight nothing short of asinine. Because what I should have done is simply list the same points why the Nuggets would most likely get smoked exactly as I did, but make the main point that these were reasons why the Nuggets would lose in the playoffs if enough of them occurred instead of going too far and claiming that some of them would definitely occur and that the Nuggets would definitely lose. I made the Report too strong and my nose was cut off as a result; I learned my lesson the hard way.

The Nuggets defeated the Hornets and the Mavericks in the 2009 playoffs. The Hornets were banged up from one end of their lineup to the other and they had no chance to beat anyone in the condition they were in. The prediction that the Nuggets would lose in the playoffs was technically invalid with respect to the Hornets series, although you would not know it given the glaring omission about injuries. That omission alone was enough to make that Report asinine. I was definitely not on my game when I wrote that one!

But the Mavericks were much less banged up, with only Josh Howard injured to any extent, and even he played in about three games of the series. The Josh Howard situation was not supposed to be enough to make my prediction invalid, so that prediction became officially and totally wrong when the Mavericks lost to the Nuggets. Ouch, the perfectionist was very wrong on something.

There is a good amount of entertainment on Quest, but it’s mostly non-basketball fun and frivolity. Quest is very serious about explaining how pro playoff basketball games are won, so any prediction we do, like most everything else we do, is supposed to be correct and is supposed to be in conjunction with explaining how games are won. In other words, as one of the very most serious basketball sites on the Internet, we don’t do predictions for entertainment, only for informational purposes.

So when on January 14, 2009 we predicted that the Denver Nuggets would “most likely not win a single playoff series” in the 2009 playoffs, this was supposed to be an accurate prediction, especially since as already mentioned the Report was supposed to be one of the more important Reports in the history of the site.

The Nuggets won two playoff series, and even appeared to be competitive in the 2009 West Final versus the Los Angeles Lakers, at least up until the point they were humiliated at home by the Lakers and thereby eliminated 4 games to 2.

Since I was so wrong, I have resolved to never make predictions unless I am about 99% certain. In January, I was about 90% certain that the Nuggets would fail to win a playoff series in 2009. The number of predictions I will be making will be carefully limited to those that are considered total locks.

There are too many variables to be predicting exactly who is going to beat who in the playoffs, especially many months in advance, injuries being by far the biggest one among many wild card variables. I don’t have to be making predictions to succeed at my objective of explaining exactly how playoff games are won. Although in theory, assuming what I teach is correct, I could predict who will beat who better than anyone who doesn’t do what I do, in practice it doesn’t make sense for me to do that, because I don’t have to be perfect or even close to perfect in predicting series to achieve what my real objectives are.

But to illustrate that I will still be making predictions when I am at least about 99% certain, which will probably be more often than you think, I have already this season predicted (with a "guarantee") that the Nuggets, despite being chock loaded with talent and very possibly more talented than the Lakers, will not win the 2010 NBA Championship. There is less than a 1% chance that they could defeat both the Lakers and whoever the East winner is, probably the Celtics. If any starter or very important bench player is out, though, that and all such predictions are invalid.

Due to the new restriction on me predicting things, I have refused to officially predict that the Nuggets will not beat the Lakers and win the West, but I will tell you that I am about 97% certain that they will not. The Nuggets have too much offensive talent for me to be 99% or more certain that the Nuggets will lose to the Lakers.

Aside from a few predictions that are intended and believed to be very close to locks, I will also be making conditional predictions via Real Team Ratings. But these “predictions” will not be the kind of serious, “I know for certain” kind of prediction that I in a blunder made in the January 14 Report. Quest for the Ring Real Team Ratings are designed to predict who the best playoff teams are. But the rankings resulting from the Ratings are not certain, hard and fast predictions of who is going to beat who. Real Team Ratings is a probabilistic model. It will most often be correct but it won’t always be correct. So you might call the predictions resulting from Real Team Ratings to be soft predictions.

Finally, it should be noted that although Quest does not have preseason predictions per se, we do have our probabilistic scheme separate from Real Team Ratings. You have probably seen it already. There are three groups of teams: major contenders, wild card contenders, and long shot contenders. Each of these groups consists of three teams. Using the beginning of the season breakdown, one of the major contenders will win the ring about 94% of all years, with one of the wild card contenders winning it in about 5% of all years, and one of the long shot contenders winning it in about 1% of all yers. A long shot contender has only about one third of one percent chance of winning the ring: about 1/333 chance.

HOW THE BATTLE FOR QUEST WAS WON: THE FORCE DEFEATS DARTH VADER
Before the Internet, secrets such as the ones I am about to reveal were almost always kept secret. In the Internet age, it is more common for secrets like this to be revealed, although only certain writers will be completely honest with you even now. My view is that since many secrets are busted on the Internet, and since writing posted on the Internet is commonly, unlike old fashioned writing, supposed to be entirely honest, there was no way I was going to keep this or anything else secret from you. You get everything I can give you with respect to how the Rings and the games are won and lost, including the details about occasional errors along the way.

So now I reveal what smug, snobbish, or uncaring writers would never reveal:

Had the Denver Nuggets won the 2009 NBA Championship, I almost certainly would have discontinued writing the story of how pro playoff games are won. Similarly, if the Denver Nuggets had defeated the Lakers but lost the NBA Championship, I most likely would have discontinued Quest for the Ring. In either of these scenarios, I would have been grossly wrong in what I have been teaching about how pro playoff games are won.

When a perfectionist is wrong, it’s bad enough, but if and when a perfectionist is grossly wrong, there is serious hell to pay. Massive reorganization and/or quitting the game are necessary when a perfectionist is grossly wrong. Reorganization was not an option because I had already and recently established a close to perfect editorial organization. So quitting due to incompetence was the only real option for a perfectionist had the Nuggets won the Ring or even just the West final.

So due to all of the Nuggets lucky breaks, but also due to the fact that I really was wrong to some extent regarding the 2009 Nuggets, I came dangerously close to having to discontinue the project due to having been proven hopelessly wrong.

KOBE BRYANT AND PHIL JACKSON TO THE RESCUE
But the Lakers, especially Kobe Bryant and Phil Jackson, saved me from this fate, by winning the series by using ways that I have been teaching are among the best ways to do it. Whereas the Nuggets got hammered 119-92 in an elimination game at home, a humiliation actually. The Nuggets were utterly destroyed in that game six, although they foolishly refused to interpret that rout in that way and vowed to make another attempt to beat the Lakers in 2010 without making any major changes in how they attempt that.

The Lakers eventually rose up out of the box the Nuggets were trying to keep them in and won big because they were and stayed true to basketball and the Nuggets persisted with trying to twist basketball into something it is not. George Karl and the Nuggets were claiming that basketball offense can be automatically reduced or limited via high fouling on defense and that fast pace on offense is a strategy that by itself can win a championship. The Nuggets’ claims were eventually proved to be very, very wrong,

But it took so long for the Nuggets to implode that it was hell on earth for a few weeks when the very existence of the Quest for the Ring project and site appeared to be in jeopardy. I mean, it was never actually in jeopardy, but you didn’t know that for sure at the time if you tend to worry too much like I do. Between all of the Nuggets’ luck and all of their offensive and defensive skill that got them into the West final, and between how long it took the Lakers to finally realize that “the force was with them,” it was a miserable experience.

The Darth Vader of basketball, George Karl, had succeeded in pulling the wool over people’s eyes more so than at any time before, to the point where there appeared to be a real threat to the Lakers, to Quest for the Ring, and to basketball.

All those around the country who had jumped on the 2009 Nuggets bandwagon as they won ten playoff games (everyone likes to root for the underdog sometimes) were surprised, to say the least, when the Nuggets imploded in game six. But notice that very few of those fly by night Nuggets fans around the country owned up to their mistake of predicting that the Nuggets were going to defeat the Lakers. They just went on their merry way. By contrast, even though I eventually "won," because months earlier I strongly predicted that the Nuggets would never get to play the Lakers in the West final, it is my duty to correct the specific things I was wrong about and to make sure that I don’t fall into the prediction trap in the future.

As you probably know and as mentioned already, the Lakers defeated the Nuggets 4 games to 2 in the 2009 West final. Had the Denver Nuggets won three games in the Lakers series, had the series gone to seven games in other words, there is about a 50/50 chance that I would have discontinued Quest. In this scenario I would have been substantially more wrong than I was, and also a secondary prediction I made about 10 days before the series began, that the Nuggets would not win more than one game against the Lakers despite having won two series (versus the Hornets and the Mavericks) would have been substantially more wrong.

So in the end, I was just wrong enough to have been very wrong, but not wrong enough to be “grossly wrong”. I came dangerously close to ending Quest for the Ring, not only due to being grossly wrong, but also because basketball would be a much less interesting and worthwhile game than I know it is had the Nuggets defeated the Lakers. If basketball could be won by using a football type of approach as Karl and the Nuggets were contending, hell, I'll start doing football.

As I said already in other Reports, the Nuggets and George Karl in the 2009 playoffs were like the Darth Vader of basketball, whereas Kobe, Phil, and the Lakers were the positive team reflecting the soul of basketball that had “the force” with them. And thank goodness that the force was in fact with the Lakers: how else can you explain them winning by 27 points in Denver in the elimination game on May 29? If that game was not “the force” showing itself, then what the hell else was it: the Nuggets losing on purpose?

The perfectionist thing to do in this case is to work like hell to figure out why I was wrong, and put in whatever safeguards possible to make sure that an error on the scale of the January 14 Report does not happen again. Actually, I have already explained exactly how the Nuggets won two playoff series in 2009: there is a series of Reports that you can check out for both the Nuggets-Hornets series and the Nuggets-Mavericks series.

As previously stated, I am next going back to the sixteen reasons in the January 14 Report that were given for the hard prediction that the Nuggets were going to lose out in the playoffs. We'll see which ones of those came true and why. We’ll review some of the main reasons why the Mavericks could not defeat the Nuggets. See the next two reports for that very important review. There is a lot of valuable information about how the Quest is won in there.

THE DARTH VADER OF BASKETBALL

Real Player Ratings for the 2009 NBA Championship, Game 5: Lakers 99 Magic 86

2009-12-22T21:32:00.000-08:00

Editorial Notice: Quest for the Ring will be between now and the end of 2009 providing a complete Real Player Rating Series Report, like the one below, for each and every 2009 West Final game, for each and every 2009 East Final game, and for each game in the 2009 NBA Final Series. The Mavericks-Nuggets West Semifinal series is also being covered this way in full.

Following the posting of the Real Player Ratings Series Reports, we will post the Real Game Ratings Reports for all of these games. Following these Real Game Ratings, which were just created in the spring of 2009 and which have hardly appeared on Quest at all yet, we will pick some games to focus on for full scale text Reports. In the text reports, we will of course as appropriate make use of and link back to the completed performance measure reports.

Quest for the Ring, as of spring 2009, has realistically and strategically decided to concentrate its advanced performance measurement, reporting, and analysis capabilities on the games that matter the most each year in the NBA: the conference final games and the NBA Championship games.

USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the following measures. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.

NBA CHAMPIONSHIP 2009 GAME FIVE
JUNE 14 2009 IN ORLANDO, FL
LOS ANGELES LAKERS 99 ORLANDO MAGIC 86
LAKFERS WIN THE SERIES AND THE QUEST FOR THE RING 4-1

BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
The adjustment for hidden defending is not valid for individual games and is not included.

LAKERS BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Kobe Bryant, SG 1.125
Pau Gasol, PF 0.964
Lamar Odom, PF 0.568
Derek Fisher, PG 0.491
Luke Walton, SF 0.449
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.285
Jordan Farmar, PG 0.180
Andrew Bynum, C 0.001

MAGIC BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
J.J. Redick, SG 1.069
Jameer Nelson, PG 0.814
Courtney Lee, SG 0.565
Rashard Lewis, PF 0.526
Dwight Howard, C 0.476
Marcin Gortat, C 0.304
Rafer Alston, PG 0.303
Hedo Turkoglu, SF 0.267
Mickael Pietrus, SF 0.179

COMBINED SORT BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 1.125
J.J. Redick, ORL SG 1.069
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.964
Jameer Nelson, ORL PG 0.814
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.568
Courtney Lee, ORL SG 0.565
Rashard Lewis, ORL PF 0.526
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.491
Dwight Howard, ORL C 0.476
Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.449
Marcin Gortat, ORL C 0.304
Rafer Alston, ORL PG 0.303
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.285
Hedo Turkoglu, ORL SF 0.267
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 0.180
Mickael Pietrus, ORL SF 0.179
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 0.001

EVALUATION SCALE FOR BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
Perfect for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.900 0.999
A Star Player / A Well Above Normal Starter 0.800 0.899
Very Good Player: A Solid Starter 0.700 0.799
Major Role Player / Good Enough to Start 0.600 0.699
Good Role Player / Often a Good 6th Man 0.500 0.599
Satisfactory Role Player 0.425 0.499
Marginal Role Player 0.350 0.424
Poor Player 0.275 0.349
Very Poor Player 0.200 0.274
Extremely Poor Player .199 and less

--------------------------------------------
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Basic Real Player Production
The adjustment for hidden defending is not valid for individual games and is not included.

LAKERS BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Kobe Bryant, SG 48.36
Pau Gasol, PF 40.49
Lamar Odom, PF 18.17
Derek Fisher, PG 15.70
Trevor Ariza, SF 11.67
Luke Walton, SF 6.29
Jordan Farmar, PG 2.52
Andrew Bynum, C 0.01

MAGIC BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Rashard Lewis, PF 23.65
Dwight Howard, C 18.57
Courtney Lee, SG 14.69
J.J. Redick, SG 13.90
Hedo Turkoglu, SF 11.22
Jameer Nelson, PG 10.58
Rafer Alston, PG 9.99
Mickael Pietrus, SF 3.05
Marcin Gortat, C 2.74

COMBINED SORT BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 48.36
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 40.49
Rashard Lewis, ORL PF 23.65
Dwight Howard, ORL C 18.57
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 18.17
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 15.70
Courtney Lee, ORL SG 14.69
J.J. Redick, ORL SG 13.90
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 11.67
Hedo Turkoglu, ORL SF 11.22
Jameer Nelson, ORL PG 10.58
Rafer Alston, ORL PG 9.99
Luke Walton, LAL SF 6.29
Mickael Pietrus, ORL SF 3.05
Marcin Gortat, ORL C 2.74
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 2.52
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 0.01

============== SUB RATINGS ==============
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
All Tracked Offensive Plays

LAKERS OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Kobe Bryant, SG 0.714
Pau Gasol, PF 0.497
Derek Fisher, PG 0.452
Luke Walton, SF 0.356
Lamar Odom, PF 0.335
Jordan Farmar, PG 0.180
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.118
Andrew Bynum, C 0.083

MAGIC OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
J.J. Redick, SG 1.146
Jameer Nelson, PG 0.612
Courtney Lee, SG 0.441
Marcin Gortat, C 0.304
Rashard Lewis, PF 0.279
Hedo Turkoglu, SF 0.269
Rafer Alston, PG 0.156
Dwight Howard, C 0.138
Mickael Pietrus, SF 0.102

COMBINED SORT OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
J.J. Redick, ORL SG 1.146
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 0.714
Jameer Nelson, ORL PG 0.612
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.497
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.452
Courtney Lee, ORL SG 0.441
Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.356
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.335
Marcin Gortat, ORL C 0.304
Rashard Lewis, ORL PF 0.279
Hedo Turkoglu, ORL SF 0.269
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 0.180
Rafer Alston, ORL PG 0.156
Dwight Howard, ORL C 0.138
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.118
Mickael Pietrus, ORL SF 0.102
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 0.083

-----------------------------------
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
All Tracked Defensive Plays
Does not include hidden defending because procedure is invalid at game level.

LAKERS DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Pau Gasol, PF 0.467
Kobe Bryant, SG 0.411
Lamar Odom, PF 0.233
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.167
Luke Walton, SF 0.094
Derek Fisher, PG 0.039
Jordan Farmar, PG 0.000
Andrew Bynum, C -0.082

MAGIC DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Dwight Howard, C 0.338
Rashard Lewis, PF 0.246
Jameer Nelson, PG 0.202
Rafer Alston, PG 0.147
Courtney Lee, SG 0.124
Mickael Pietrus, SF 0.077
Marcin Gortat, C 0.000
Hedo Turkoglu, SF -0.002
J.J. Redick, SG -0.077

COMBINED SORT DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.467
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 0.411
Dwight Howard, ORL C 0.338
Rashard Lewis, ORL PF 0.246
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.233
Jameer Nelson, ORL PG 0.202
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.167
Rafer Alston, ORL PG 0.147
Courtney Lee, ORL SG 0.124
Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.094
Mickael Pietrus, ORL SF 0.077
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.039
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 0.000
Marcin Gortat, ORL C 0.000
Hedo Turkoglu, ORL SF -0.002
J.J. Redick, ORL SG -0.077
Andrew Bynum, LAL C -0.082

-----------------------------------------
USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the following measures. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.

Real Player Ratings for the 2009 NBA Championship, Game 4: Lakers 99 Magic 91, Overtime

2009-12-22T17:31:00.000-08:00

Editorial Notice: Quest for the Ring will be between now and the end of 2009 providing a complete Real Player Rating Series Report, like the one below, for each and every 2009 West Final game, for each and every 2009 East Final game, and for each game in the 2009 NBA Final Series. The Mavericks-Nuggets West Semifinal series is also being covered this way in full.

Following the posting of the Real Player Ratings Series Reports, we will post the Real Game Ratings Reports for all of these games. Following these Real Game Ratings, which were just created in the spring of 2009 and which have hardly appeared on Quest at all yet, we will pick some games to focus on for full scale text Reports. In the text reports, we will of course as appropriate make use of and link back to the completed performance measure reports.

Quest for the Ring, as of spring 2009, has realistically and strategically decided to concentrate its advanced performance measurement, reporting, and analysis capabilities on the games that matter the most each year in the NBA: the conference final games and the NBA Championship games.

USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the following measures. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.

NBA CHAMPIONSHIP 2009 GAME FOUR
JUNE 11 2009 IN ORLANDO, FL
LOS ANGELES LAKERS 99 ORLANDO MAGIC 91, OVERTIME
LAKFERS LEAD THE SERIES 3-1

BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
The adjustment for hidden defending is not valid for individual games and is not included.

LAKERS BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Kobe Bryant, SG 0.793
Luke Walton, SF 0.615
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.608
Pau Gasol, PF 0.424
Lamar Odom, PF 0.403
Derek Fisher, PG 0.388
Andrew Bynum, C 0.219
Jordan Farmar, PG -0.078
Josh Powell, C -0.298

MAGIC BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Hedo Turkoglu, SF 0.645
Dwight Howard, C 0.638
J.J. Redick, SG 0.574
Rafer Alston, PG 0.349
Rashard Lewis, PF 0.313
Jameer Nelson, PG 0.265
Mickael Pietrus, SF 0.256
Tony Battie, C -0.301
Courtney Lee, SG -0.468

COMBINED SORT BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 0.793
Hedo Turkoglu, ORL SF 0.645
Dwight Howard, ORL C 0.638
Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.615
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.608
J.J. Redick, ORL SG 0.574
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.424
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.403
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.388
Rafer Alston, ORL PG 0.349
Rashard Lewis, ORL PF 0.313
Jameer Nelson, ORL PG 0.265
Mickael Pietrus, ORL SF 0.256
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 0.219
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG -0.078
Josh Powell, LAL C -0.298
Tony Battie, ORL C -0.301
Courtney Lee, ORL SG -0.468

EVALUATION SCALE FOR BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
Perfect for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.900 0.999
A Star Player / A Well Above Normal Starter 0.800 0.899
Very Good Player: A Solid Starter 0.700 0.799
Major Role Player / Good Enough to Start 0.600 0.699
Good Role Player / Often a Good 6th Man 0.500 0.599
Satisfactory Role Player 0.425 0.499
Marginal Role Player 0.350 0.424
Poor Player 0.275 0.349
Very Poor Player 0.200 0.274
Extremely Poor Player .199 and less

--------------------------------------------
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Basic Real Player Production
The adjustment for hidden defending is not valid for individual games and is not included.

LAKERS BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Kobe Bryant, SG 38.86
Trevor Ariza, SF 26.76
Pau Gasol, PF 20.78
Derek Fisher, PG 16.28
Lamar Odom, PF 11.29
Luke Walton, SF 6.77
Andrew Bynum, C 3.51
Jordan Farmar, PG -0.70
Josh Powell, C -2.38

MAGIC BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Dwight Howard, C 31.27
Hedo Turkoglu, SF 26.43
Rashard Lewis, PF 14.40
J.J. Redick, SG 9.76
Mickael Pietrus, SF 9.45
Rafer Alston, PG 9.41
Jameer Nelson, PG 6.89
Courtney Lee, SG -3.28
Tony Battie, C -3.61

COMBINED SORT BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 38.86
Dwight Howard, ORL C 31.27
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 26.76
Hedo Turkoglu, ORL SF 26.43
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 20.78
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 16.28
Rashard Lewis, ORL PF 14.40
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 11.29
J.J. Redick, ORL SG 9.76
Mickael Pietrus, ORL SF 9.45
Rafer Alston, ORL PG 9.41
Jameer Nelson, ORL PG 6.89
Luke Walton, LAL SF 6.77
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 3.51
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG -0.70
Josh Powell, LAL C -2.38
Courtney Lee, ORL SG -3.28
Tony Battie, ORL C -3.61

============== SUB RATINGS ==============
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
All Tracked Offensive Plays

LAKERS OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Kobe Bryant, SG 0.610
Andrew Bynum, C 0.450
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.393
Luke Walton, SF 0.377
Lamar Odom, PF 0.359
Derek Fisher, PG 0.304
Pau Gasol, PF 0.245
Josh Powell, C -0.048
Jordan Farmar, PG -0.222

MAGIC OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
J.J. Redick, SG 0.574
Hedo Turkoglu, SF 0.526
Rafer Alston, PG 0.289
Mickael Pietrus, SF 0.266
Jameer Nelson, PG 0.241
Rashard Lewis, PF 0.057
Dwight Howard, C -0.012
Tony Battie, C -0.134
Courtney Lee, SG -0.182

COMBINED SORT OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 0.610
J.J. Redick, ORL SG 0.574
Hedo Turkoglu, ORL SF 0.526
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 0.450
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.393
Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.377
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.359
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.304
Rafer Alston, ORL PG 0.289
Mickael Pietrus, ORL SF 0.266
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.245
Jameer Nelson, ORL PG 0.241
Rashard Lewis, ORL PF 0.057
Dwight Howard, ORL C -0.012
Josh Powell, LAL C -0.048
Tony Battie, ORL C -0.134
Courtney Lee, ORL SG -0.182
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG -0.222

-----------------------------------
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
All Tracked Defensive Plays
Does not include hidden defending because procedure is invalid at game level.

LAKERS DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Luke Walton, SF 0.238
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.215
Kobe Bryant, SG 0.183
Pau Gasol, PF 0.179
Jordan Farmar, PG 0.144
Derek Fisher, PG 0.084
Lamar Odom, PF 0.044
Andrew Bynum, C -0.231
Josh Powell, C -0.250

MAGIC DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Dwight Howard, C 0.650
Rashard Lewis, PF 0.256
Hedo Turkoglu, SF 0.118
Rafer Alston, PG 0.060
Jameer Nelson, PG 0.024
J.J. Redick, SG 0.000
Mickael Pietrus, SF -0.010
Tony Battie, C -0.167
Courtney Lee, SG -0.286

COMBINED SORT DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Dwight Howard, ORL C 0.650
Rashard Lewis, ORL PF 0.256
Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.238
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.215
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 0.183
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.179
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 0.144
Hedo Turkoglu, ORL SF 0.118
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.084
Rafer Alston, ORL PG 0.060
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.044
Jameer Nelson, ORL PG 0.024
J.J. Redick, ORL SG 0.000
Mickael Pietrus, ORL SF -0.010
Tony Battie, ORL C -0.167
Andrew Bynum, LAL C -0.231
Josh Powell, LAL C -0.250
Courtney Lee, ORL G -0.286

-----------------------------------------
USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the following measures. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.

Real Player Ratings for the 2009 NBA Championship, Game 3: Magic 108 Lakers 104

2009-12-22T16:28:00.000-08:00

Editorial Notice: Quest for the Ring will be between now and the end of 2009 providing a complete Real Player Rating Series Report, like the one below, for each and every 2009 West Final game, for each and every 2009 East Final game, and for each game in the 2009 NBA Final Series. The Mavericks-Nuggets West Semifinal series is also being covered this way in full.

Following the posting of the Real Player Ratings Series Reports, we will post the Real Game Ratings Reports for all of these games. Following these Real Game Ratings, which were just created in the spring of 2009 and which have hardly appeared on Quest at all yet, we will pick some games to focus on for full scale text Reports. In the text reports, we will of course as appropriate make use of and link back to the completed performance measure reports.

Quest for the Ring, as of spring 2009, has realistically and strategically decided to concentrate its advanced performance measurement, reporting, and analysis capabilities on the games that matter the most each year in the NBA: the conference final games and the NBA Championship games.

USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the following measures. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.

NBA CHAMPIONSHIP 2009 GAME THREE
JUNE 9 2009 IN ORLANDO, FL
ORLANDO MAGIC 108 LOS ANGELES LAKERS 104
LAKFERS LEAD THE SERIES 2-1

BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
The adjustment for hidden defending is not valid for individual games and is not included.

LAKERS BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Pau Gasol, PF 0.759
Jordan Farmar, PG 0.647
Kobe Bryant, SG 0.634
Derek Fisher, PG 0.462
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.407
Lamar Odom, PF 0.281
Andrew Bynum, C 0.232
Luke Walton, SF 0.231

MAGIC BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Dwight Howard, C 0.888
Hedo Turkoglu, SF 0.842
Mickael Pietrus, SF 0.831
Rashard Lewis, PF 0.670
Tony Battie, C 0.636
Rafer Alston, PG 0.614
Jameer Nelson, PG 0.286
Courtney Lee, SG 0.006

COMBINED SORT BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Dwight Howard, ORL C 0.888
Hedo Turkoglu, ORL SF 0.842
Mickael Pietrus, ORL SF 0.831
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.759
Rashard Lewis, ORL PF 0.670
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 0.647
Tony Battie, ORL C 0.636
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 0.634
Rafer Alston, ORL PG 0.614
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.462
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.407
Jameer Nelson, ORL PG 0.286
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.281
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 0.232
Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.231
Courtney Lee, ORL SG 0.006

EVALUATION SCALE FOR BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
Perfect for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.900 0.999
A Star Player / A Well Above Normal Starter 0.800 0.899
Very Good Player: A Solid Starter 0.700 0.799
Major Role Player / Good Enough to Start 0.600 0.699
Good Role Player / Often a Good 6th Man 0.500 0.599
Satisfactory Role Player 0.425 0.499
Marginal Role Player 0.350 0.424
Poor Player 0.275 0.349
Very Poor Player 0.200 0.274
Extremely Poor Player .199 and less

--------------------------------------------
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Basic Real Player Production
The adjustment for hidden defending is not valid for individual games and is not included.

LAKERS BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Pau Gasol, PF 30.36
Kobe Bryant, SG 25.35
Trevor Ariza, SF 17.11
Derek Fisher, PG 14.79
Jordan Farmar, PG 10.35
Lamar Odom, PF 8.98
Andrew Bynum, C 5.33
Luke Walton, SF 2.54

MAGIC BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Dwight Howard, C 38.17
Hedo Turkoglu, SF 35.36
Rashard Lewis, PF 27.48
Mickael Pietrus, SF 25.76
Rafer Alston, PG 22.72
Tony Battie, C 5.72
Jameer Nelson, PG 3.15
Courtney Lee, SG 0.12

COMBINED SORT BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Dwight Howard, ORL C 38.17
Hedo Turkoglu, ORL SF 35.36
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 30.36
Rashard Lewis, ORL PF 27.48
Mickael Pietrus, ORL SF 25.76
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 25.35
Rafer Alston, ORL PG 22.72
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 17.11
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 14.79
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 10.35
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 8.98
Tony Battie, ORL C 5.72
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 5.33
Jameer Nelson, ORL PG 3.15
Luke Walton, LAL SF 2.54
Courtney Lee, ORL SG 0.12

============== SUB RATINGS ==============
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
All Tracked Offensive Plays

LAKERS OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Kobe Bryant, SG 0.693
Pau Gasol, PF 0.621
Jordan Farmar, PG 0.546
Luke Walton, SF 0.385
Derek Fisher, PG 0.371
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.268
Lamar Odom, PF 0.237
Andrew Bynum, C 0.105

MAGIC OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Hedo Turkoglu, SF 0.703
Mickael Pietrus, SF 0.663
Tony Battie, C 0.658
Rashard Lewis, PF 0.640
Rafer Alston, PG 0.570
Dwight Howard, C 0.478
Jameer Nelson, PG 0.077
Courtney Lee, SG 0.041

COMBINED SORT OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Hedo Turkoglu, ORL SF 0.703
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 0.693
Mickael Pietrus, ORL SF 0.663
Tony Battie, ORL C 0.658
Rashard Lewis, ORL PF 0.640
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.621
Rafer Alston, ORL PG 0.570
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 0.546
Dwight Howard, ORL C 0.478
Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.385
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.371
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.268
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.237
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 0.105
Jameer Nelson, ORL PG 0.077
Courtney Lee, ORL SG 0.041

-----------------------------------
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
All Tracked Defensive Plays
Does not include hidden defending because procedure is invalid at game level.

LAKERS DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.139
Pau Gasol, PF 0.138
Andrew Bynum, C 0.127
Jordan Farmar, PG 0.101
Derek Fisher, PG 0.091
Lamar Odom, PF 0.044
Kobe Bryant, SG -0.060
Luke Walton, SF -0.154

MAGIC DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Dwight Howard, C 0.410
Jameer Nelson, PG 0.209
Mickael Pietrus, SF 0.168
Hedo Turkoglu, SF 0.139
Rafer Alston, PG 0.044
Rashard Lewis, PF 0.030
Tony Battie, C -0.022
Courtney Lee, SG -0.035

COMBINED SORT DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Dwight Howard, ORL C 0.410
Jameer Nelson, ORL PG 0.209
Mickael Pietrus, ORL SF 0.168
Hedo Turkoglu, ORL SF 0.139
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.139
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.138
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 0.127
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 0.101
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.091
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.044
Rafer Alston, ORL PG 0.044
Rashard Lewis, ORL PF 0.030
Tony Battie, ORL C -0.022
Courtney Lee, ORL SG -0.035
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG -0.060
Luke Walton, LAL SF -0.154

-----------------------------------------
USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the following measures. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.

Real Player Ratings for the 2009 NBA Championship, Game 2: Lakers 101 Magic 96, Overtime

2009-12-22T15:27:00.000-08:00

Editorial Notice: Quest for the Ring will be between now and the end of 2009 providing a complete Real Player Rating Series Report, like the one below, for each and every 2009 West Final game, for each and every 2009 East Final game, and for each game in the 2009 NBA Final Series. The Mavericks-Nuggets West Semifinal series is also being covered this way in full.

Following the posting of the Real Player Ratings Series Reports, we will post the Real Game Ratings Reports for all of these games. Following these Real Game Ratings, which were just created in the spring of 2009 and which have hardly appeared on Quest at all yet, we will pick some games to focus on for full scale text Reports. In the text reports, we will of course as appropriate make use of and link back to the completed performance measure reports.

Quest for the Ring, as of spring 2009, has realistically and strategically decided to concentrate its advanced performance measurement, reporting, and analysis capabilities on the games that matter the most each year in the NBA: the conference final games and the NBA Championship games.

USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the following measures. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.

NBA CHAMPIONSHIP 2009 GAME TWO
JUNE 7 2009 IN LOS ANGELES, CA
LOS ANGELES LAKERS 101 ORLANDO MAGIC 96
LAKFERS LEAD THE SERIES 2-0

BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
The adjustment for hidden defending is not valid for individual games and is not included.

MAGIC BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Rashard Lewis, PF 1.328
Dwight Howard, C 0.848
Hedo Turkoglu, SF 0.426
Rafer Alston, PG 0.247
Courtney Lee, SG 0.080
Jameer Nelson, PG -0.005
J.J. Redick, SG -0.027
Mickael Pietrus, SF -0.137
Marcin Gortat, C -0.146

LAKERS BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Pau Gasol, PF 0.937
Lamar Odom, PF 0.732
Kobe Bryant, SG 0.614
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.466
Derek Fisher, PG 0.450
Luke Walton, SF 0.328
Andrew Bynum, C 0.311

COMBINED SORT BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Rashard Lewis, ORL PF 1.328
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.937
Dwight Howard, ORL C 0.848
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.732
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 0.614
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.466
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.450
Hedo Turkoglu, ORL SF 0.426
Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.328
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 0.311
Rafer Alston, ORL PG 0.247
Courtney Lee, ORL SG 0.080
Jameer Nelson, ORL PG -0.005
J.J. Redick, ORL SG -0.027
Mickael Pietrus, ORL SF -0.137
Marcin Gortat, ORL C -0.146

EVALUATION SCALE FOR BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
Perfect for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.900 0.999
A Star Player / A Well Above Normal Starter 0.800 0.899
Very Good Player: A Solid Starter 0.700 0.799
Major Role Player / Good Enough to Start 0.600 0.699
Good Role Player / Often a Good 6th Man 0.500 0.599
Satisfactory Role Player 0.425 0.499
Marginal Role Player 0.350 0.424
Poor Player 0.275 0.349
Very Poor Player 0.200 0.274
Extremely Poor Player .199 and less

--------------------------------------------
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Basic Real Player Production
The adjustment for hidden defending is not valid for individual games and is not included.

MAGIC BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Rashard Lewis, PF 59.77
Dwight Howard, C 39.87
Hedo Turkoglu, SF 20.00
Rafer Alston, PG 6.42
Courtney Lee, SG 0.96
Jameer Nelson, PG -0.01
J.J. Redick, SG -0.72
Marcin Gortat, C -2.19
Mickael Pietrus, SF -3.16

LAKERS BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Pau Gasol, PF 41.21
Lamar Odom, PF 33.66
Kobe Bryant, SG 30.07
Derek Fisher, PG 18.44
Trevor Ariza, SF 17.71
Andrew Bynum, C 4.97
Luke Walton, SF 4.92

COMBINED SORT BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Rashard Lewis, ORL PF 59.77
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 41.21
Dwight Howard, ORL C 39.87
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 33.66
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 30.07
Hedo Turkoglu, ORL SF 20.00
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 18.44
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 17.71
Rafer Alston, ORL PG 6.42
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 4.97
Luke Walton, LAL SF 4.92
Courtney Lee, ORL SG 0.96
Jameer Nelson, ORL PG -0.01
J.J. Redick, ORL SG -0.72
Marcin Gortat, ORL C -2.19
Mickael Pietrus, ORL SF -3.16

============== SUB RATINGS ==============
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
All Tracked Offensive Plays

MAGIC OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Rashard Lewis, PF 1.147
Hedo Turkoglu, SF 0.326
Rafer Alston, PG 0.235
Dwight Howard, C 0.222
J.J. Redick, SG 0.036
Courtney Lee, SG 0.028
Jameer Nelson, PG -0.005
Mickael Pietrus, SF -0.069
Marcin Gortat, C -0.254

LAKERS OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Pau Gasol, PF 0.562
Lamar Odom, PF 0.502
Kobe Bryant, SG 0.454
Luke Walton, SF 0.353
Andrew Bynum, C 0.316
Derek Fisher, PG 0.298
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.157

COMBINED SORT OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Rashard Lewis, ORL PF 1.147
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.562
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.502
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 0.454
Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.353
Hedo Turkoglu, ORL SF 0.326
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 0.316
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.298
Rafer Alston, ORL PG 0.235
Dwight Howard, ORL C 0.222
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.157
J.J. Redick, ORL SG 0.036
Courtney Lee, ORL SG 0.028
Jameer Nelson, ORL PG -0.005
Mickael Pietrus, ORL SF -0.069
Marcin Gortat, ORL C -0.254

-----------------------------------
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
All Tracked Defensive Plays
Does not include hidden defending because procedure is invalid at game level.

MAGIC DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Dwight Howard, C 0.626
Rashard Lewis, PF 0.181
Marcin Gortat, C 0.108
Hedo Turkoglu, SF 0.099
Courtney Lee, SG 0.052
Rafer Alston, PG 0.012
Jameer Nelson, PG 0.000
J.J. Redick, SG -0.063
Mickael Pietrus, SF -0.069

LAKERS DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Pau Gasol, PF 0.375
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.309
Lamar Odom, PF 0.230
Kobe Bryant, SG 0.160
Derek Fisher, PG 0.151
Andrew Bynum, C -0.006
Luke Walton, SF -0.025

COMBINED SORT DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Dwight Howard, ORL C 0.626
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.375
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.309
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.230
Rashard Lewis, ORL PF 0.181
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 0.160
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.151
Marcin Gortat, ORL C 0.108
Hedo Turkoglu, ORL SF 0.099
Courtney Lee, ORL SG 0.052
Rafer Alston, ORL PG 0.012
Jameer Nelson, ORL PG 0.000
Andrew Bynum, LAL C -0.006
Luke Walton, LAL SF -0.025
J.J. Redick, ORL SG -0.063
Mickael Pietrus, ORL SF -0.069

-----------------------------------------
USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the following measures. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.

Real Player Ratings for the 2009 NBA Championship, Game 1: Lakers 100 Magic 75

2009-12-22T06:26:00.000-08:00

Editorial Notice: Quest for the Ring will be between now and the end of 2009 providing a complete Real Player Rating Series Report, like the one below, for each and every 2009 West Final game, for each and every 2009 East Final game, and for each game in the 2009 NBA Final Series. The Mavericks-Nuggets West Semifinal series is also being covered this way in full.

Following the posting of the Real Player Ratings Series Reports, we will post the Real Game Ratings Reports for all of these games. Following these Real Game Ratings, which were just created in the spring of 2009 and which have hardly appeared on Quest at all yet, we will pick some games to focus on for full scale text Reports. In the text reports, we will of course as appropriate make use of and link back to the completed performance measure reports.

Quest for the Ring, as of spring 2009, has realistically and strategically decided to concentrate its advanced performance measurement, reporting, and analysis capabilities on the games that matter the most each year in the NBA: the conference final games and the NBA Championship games.

USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the following measures. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.

NBA CHAMPIONSHIP 2009 GAME ONE
JUNE 4 2009 IN LOS ANGELES, CA
LOS ANGELES LAKERS 100 ORLANDO MAGIC 75
LAKFERS LEAD THE SERIES 1-0

BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
The adjustment for hidden defending is not valid for individual games and is not included.

MAGIC BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Marcin Gortat, C 1.107
J.J. Redick, SG 0.928
Dwight Howard, C 0.718
Jameer Nelson, PG 0.407
Hedo Turkoglu, SF 0.317
Rafer Alston, PG 0.231
Mickael Pietrus, SF 0.219
Rashard Lewis, PF 0.128
Courtney Lee, SG 0.020

LAKERS BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Kobe Bryant, SG 1.604
Pau Gasol, PF 0.747
Lamar Odom, PF 0.668
Andrew Bynum, C 0.622
Luke Walton, SF 0.608
Derek Fisher, PG 0.386
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.283
Shannon Brown, PG -0.079
Jordan Farmar, PG -0.095

COMBINED SORT BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 1.604
Marcin Gortat, ORL C 1.107
J.J. Redick, ORL SG 0.928
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.747
Dwight Howard, ORL C 0.718
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.668
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 0.622
Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.608
Jameer Nelson, ORL PG 0.407
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.386
Hedo Turkoglu, ORL SF 0.317
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.283
Rafer Alston, ORL PG 0.231
Mickael Pietrus, ORL SF 0.219
Rashard Lewis, ORL PF 0.128
Courtney Lee, ORL SG 0.020
Shannon Brown, LAL PG -0.079
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG -0.095

EVALUATION SCALE FOR BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
Perfect for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.900 0.999
A Star Player / A Well Above Normal Starter 0.800 0.899
Very Good Player: A Solid Starter 0.700 0.799
Major Role Player / Good Enough to Start 0.600 0.699
Good Role Player / Often a Good 6th Man 0.500 0.599
Satisfactory Role Player 0.425 0.499
Marginal Role Player 0.350 0.424
Poor Player 0.275 0.349
Very Poor Player 0.200 0.274
Extremely Poor Player .199 and less

--------------------------------------------
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Basic Real Player Production
The adjustment for hidden defending is not valid for individual games and is not included.

MAGIC BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Dwight Howard, C 25.15
Marcin Gortat, C 22.14
Hedo Turkoglu, SF 10.46
Jameer Nelson, PG 9.35
J.J. Redick, SG 7.42
Mickael Pietrus, SF 7.02
Rafer Alston, PG 5.78
Rashard Lewis, PF 4.61
Courtney Lee, SG 0.46

LAKERS BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Kobe Bryant, SG 60.94
Pau Gasol, PF 27.64
Lamar Odom, PF 21.36
Luke Walton, SF 14.58
Andrew Bynum, C 13.67
Derek Fisher, PG 12.34
Trevor Ariza, SF 6.78
Shannon Brown, PG -0.63
Jordan Farmar, PG -1.24

COMBINED SORT BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 60.94
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 27.64
Dwight Howard, ORL C 25.15
Marcin Gortat, ORL C 22.14
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 21.36
Luke Walton, LAL SF 14.58
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 13.67
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 12.34
Hedo Turkoglu, ORL SF 10.46
Jameer Nelson, ORL PG 9.35
J.J. Redick, ORL SG 7.42
Mickael Pietrus, ORL SF 7.02
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 6.78
Rafer Alston, ORL PG 5.78
Rashard Lewis, ORL PF 4.61
Courtney Lee, ORL SG 0.46
Shannon Brown, LAL PG -0.63
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG -1.24

============== SUB RATINGS ==============
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
All Tracked Offensive Plays

MAGIC OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
J.J. Redick, SG 0.640
Jameer Nelson, PG 0.336
Mickael Pietrus, SF 0.262
Marcin Gortat, C 0.209
Dwight Howard, C 0.196
Rashard Lewis, PF 0.130
Hedo Turkoglu, SF 0.095
Rafer Alston, PG 0.074
Courtney Lee, SG 0.050

LAKERS OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Kobe Bryant, SG 1.173
Luke Walton, SF 0.582
Pau Gasol, PF 0.554
Derek Fisher, PG 0.398
Andrew Bynum, C 0.364
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.278
Lamar Odom, PF 0.142
Shannon Brown, PG -0.079
Jordan Farmar, PG -0.220

COMBINED SORT OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 1.173
J.J. Redick, ORL SG 0.640
Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.582
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.554
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.398
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 0.364
Jameer Nelson, ORL PG 0.336
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.278
Mickael Pietrus, ORL SF 0.262
Marcin Gortat, ORL C 0.209
Dwight Howard, ORL C 0.196
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.142
Rashard Lewis, ORL PF 0.130
Hedo Turkoglu, ORL SF 0.095
Rafer Alston, ORL PG 0.074
Courtney Lee, ORL SG 0.050
Shannon Brown, LAL PG -0.079
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG -0.220

-----------------------------------
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
All Tracked Defensive Plays
Does not include hidden defending because procedure is invalid at game level.

MAGIC DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Marcin Gortat, C 0.899
Dwight Howard, C 0.523
J.J. Redick, SG 0.288
Hedo Turkoglu, SF 0.222
Rafer Alston, PG 0.157
Jameer Nelson, PG 0.070
Rashard Lewis, PF -0.002
Courtney Lee, SG -0.030
Mickael Pietrus, SF -0.043

LAKERS DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Lamar Odom, PF 0.526
Kobe Bryant, SG 0.431
Andrew Bynum, C 0.257
Pau Gasol, PF 0.193
Jordan Farmar, PG 0.125
Luke Walton, SF 0.025
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.005
Shannon Brown, PG 0.000
Derek Fisher, PG -0.012

COMBINED SORT DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Marcin Gortat, ORL C 0.899
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.526
Dwight Howard, ORL C 0.523
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 0.431
J.J. Redick, ORL SG 0.288
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 0.257
Hedo Turkoglu, ORL SF 0.222
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.193
Rafer Alston, ORL PG 0.157
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 0.125
Jameer Nelson, ORL PG 0.070
Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.025
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.005
Shannon Brown, LAL PG 0.000
Rashard Lewis, ORL PF -0.002
Derek Fisher, LAL PG -0.012
Courtney Lee, ORL SG -0.030
Mickael Pietrus, ORL SF -0.043

-----------------------------------------
USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the following measures. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.

Real Player Ratings for the 2009 West Final, Game 6: Lakers 119 Nuggets 92

2009-12-14T19:28:00.001-08:00

Editorial Notice: Quest for the Ring will be between now and the end of 2009 providing a complete Real Player Rating Series Report, like the one below, for each and every 2009 West Final game, for each and every 2009 East Final game, and for each game in the 2009 NBA Final Series. The Mavericks-Nuggets West Semifinal series is also being covered this way in full.

Following the posting of the Real Player Ratings Series Reports, we will post the Real Game Ratings Reports for all of these games. Following these Real Game Ratings, which were just created in the spring of 2009 and which have hardly appeared on Quest at all yet, we will pick some games to focus on for full scale text Reports. In the text reports, we will of course as appropriate make use of and link back to the completed performance measure reports.

Quest for the Ring, as of spring 2009, has realistically and strategically decided to concentrate its advanced performance measurement, reporting, and analysis capabilities on the games that matter the most each year in the NBA: the conference final games and the NBA Championship games.

USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the following measures. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.

WEST FINAL 2009 GAME SIX
MAY 29 2009 IN DENVER, CO
LOS ANGELES LAKERS 119 DENVER NUGGETS 92
LAKFERS WIN THE SERIES 4-2

BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
The adjustment for hidden defending is not valid for individual games and is not included.

LAKERS BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Kobe Bryant, SG 1.453
Sasha Vujacic, SG 1.204
Pau Gasol, PF 1.162
Lamar Odom, PF 0.933
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.879
Luke Walton, SF 0.484
Derek Fisher, PG 0.446
Shannon Brown, PG 0.386
Andrew Bynum, C -0.001
Jordan Farmar, PG -0.036

NUGGETS BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Carmelo Anthony, SF 0.898
Linas Kleiza, SF 0.636
J.R. Smith, SG 0.629
Chauncey Billups, PG 0.593
Kenyon Martin, PF 0.477
Nene, C 0.449
Chris Andersen, C 0.404
Anthony Carter, PG 0.127
Dahntay Jones, SG 0.110

COMBINED SORT BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 1.453
Sasha Vujacic, LAL SG 1.204
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 1.162
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.933
Carmelo Anthony, DEN SF 0.898
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.879
Linas Kleiza, DEN SF 0.636
J.R. Smith, DEN SG 0.629
Chauncey Billups, DEN PG 0.593
Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.484
Kenyon Martin, DEN PF 0.477
Nene, DEN C 0.449
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.446
Chris Andersen, DEN C 0.404
Shannon Brown, LAL PG 0.386
Anthony Carter, DEN PG 0.127
Dahntay Jones, DEN SG 0.110
Andrew Bynum, LAL C -0.001
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG -0.036

EVALUATION SCALE FOR BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
Perfect for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.900 0.999
A Star Player / A Well Above Normal Starter 0.800 0.899
Very Good Player: A Solid Starter 0.700 0.799
Major Role Player / Good Enough to Start 0.600 0.699
Good Role Player / Often a Good 6th Man 0.500 0.599
Satisfactory Role Player 0.425 0.499
Marginal Role Player 0.350 0.424
Poor Player 0.275 0.349
Very Poor Player 0.200 0.274
Extremely Poor Player .199 and less

--------------------------------------------
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Basic Real Player Production
The adjustment for hidden defending is not valid for individual games and is not included.

LAKERS BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Kobe Bryant, SG 61.03
Pau Gasol, PF 48.79
Lamar Odom, PF 29.84
Trevor Ariza, SF 19.33
Derek Fisher, PG 14.26
Luke Walton, SF 12.10
Sasha Vujacic, SG 8.43
Shannon Brown, PG 3.09
Andrew Bynum, C -0.02
Jordan Farmar, PG -0.29

NUGGETS BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Carmelo Anthony, SF 33.22
Chauncey Billups, PG 23.14
J.R. Smith, SG 20.14
Nene, C 14.83
Kenyon Martin, PF 13.84
Linas Kleiza, SF 12.08
Chris Andersen, C 8.49
Dahntay Jones, SG 1.43
Anthony Carter, PG 1.14

COMBINED SORT BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 61.03
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 48.79
Carmelo Anthony, DEN SF 33.22
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 29.84
Chauncey Billups, DEN PG 23.14
J.R. Smith, DEN SG 20.14
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 19.33
Nene, DEN C 14.83
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 14.26
Kenyon Martin, DEN PF 13.84
Luke Walton, LAL SF 12.10
Linas Kleiza, DEN SF 12.08
Chris Andersen, DEN C 8.49
Sasha Vujacic, LAL SG 8.43
Shannon Brown, LAL PG 3.09
Dahntay Jones, DEN SG 1.43
Anthony Carter, DEN PG 1.14
Andrew Bynum, LAL C -0.02
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG -0.29

============== SUB RATINGS ==============
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
All Tracked Offensive Plays

LAKERS OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Kobe Bryant, SG 1.247
Sasha Vujacic, SG 1.204
Lamar Odom, PF 0.790
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.777
Pau Gasol, PF 0.690
Luke Walton, SF 0.480
Shannon Brown, PG 0.386
Derek Fisher, PG 0.376
Andrew Bynum, C -0.051
Jordan Farmar, PG -0.200

NUGGETS OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Carmelo Anthony, SF 0.792
J.R. Smith, SG 0.673
Chauncey Billups, PG 0.503
Kenyon Martin, PF 0.480
Linas Kleiza, SF 0.429
Dahntay Jones, SG 0.264
Nene, C 0.233
Chris Andersen, C 0.070
Anthony Carter, PG -0.274

COMBINED SORT OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 1.247
Sasha Vujacic, LAL SG 1.204
Carmelo Anthony, DEN SF 0.792
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.790
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.777
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.690
J.R. Smith, DEN SG 0.673
Chauncey Billups, DEN PG 0.503
Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.480
Kenyon Martin, DEN PF 0.480
Linas Kleiza, DEN SF 0.429
Shannon Brown, LAL PG 0.386
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.376
Dahntay Jones, DEN SG 0.264
Nene, DEN C 0.233
Chris Andersen, DEN C 0.070
Andrew Bynum, LAL C -0.051
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG -0.200
Anthony Carter, DEN PG -0.274

-----------------------------------
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
All Tracked Defensive Plays
Does not include hidden defending because procedure is invalid at game level.

LAKERS DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Pau Gasol, PF 0.471
Kobe Bryant, SG 0.206
Jordan Farmar, PG 0.164
Lamar Odom, PF 0.142
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.101
Derek Fisher, PG 0.070
Andrew Bynum, C 0.050
Luke Walton, SF 0.004
Sasha Vujacic, SG 0.000
Shannon Brown, PG 0.000

NUGGETS DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Anthony Carter, PG 0.401
Chris Andersen, C 0.334
Nene, C 0.217
Linas Kleiza, SF 0.207
Carmelo Anthony, SF 0.106
Chauncey Billups, PG 0.091
Kenyon Martin, PF -0.002
J.R. Smith, SG -0.043
Dahntay Jones, SG -0.154

COMBINED SORT DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.471
Anthony Carter, DEN PG 0.401
Chris Andersen, DEN C 0.334
Nene, DEN C 0.217
Linas Kleiza, DEN SF 0.207
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 0.206
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 0.164
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.142
Carmelo Anthony, DEN SF 0.106
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.101
Chauncey Billups, DEN PG 0.091
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.070
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 0.050
Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.004
Sasha Vujacic, LAL SG 0.000
Shannon Brown, LAL PG 0.000
Kenyon Martin, DEN PF -0.002
J.R. Smith, DEN SG -0.043
Dahntay Jones, DEN SG -0.154

-----------------------------------------
USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the following measures. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.

Real Player Ratings for the 2009 West Final, Game 5: Lakers 103 Nuggets 94

2009-12-14T19:27:00.000-08:00

Editorial Notice: Quest for the Ring will be between now and the end of 2009 providing a complete Real Player Rating Series Report, like the one below, for each and every 2009 West Final game, for each and every 2009 East Final game, and for each game in the 2009 NBA Final Series. The Mavericks-Nuggets West Semifinal series is also being covered this way in full.

Following the posting of the Real Player Ratings Series Reports, we will post the Real Game Ratings Reports for all of these games. Following these Real Game Ratings, which were just created in the spring of 2009 and which have hardly appeared on Quest at all yet, we will pick some games to focus on for full scale text Reports. In the text reports, we will of course as appropriate make use of and link back to the completed performance measure reports.

Quest for the Ring, as of spring 2009, has realistically and strategically decided to concentrate its advanced performance measurement, reporting, and analysis capabilities on the games that matter the most each year in the NBA: the conference final games and the NBA Championship games.

USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the following measures. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.

WEST FINAL 2009 GAME FIVE
MAY 27, 2009 IN LOS ANGELES, CA
LOS ANGELES LAKERS 103 DENVER NUGGETS 94
LOS ANGELES LAKERS LEAD THE SERIES 3-2

BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
The adjustment for hidden defending is not valid for individual games and is not included.

NUGGETS BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Anthony Carter, PG 1.102
Carmelo Anthony, SF 0.631
Chauncey Billups, PG 0.537
Linas Kleiza, SF 0.509
Chris Andersen, C 0.475
Nene, C 0.473
Kenyon Martin, PF 0.415
J.R. Smith, SG 0.370
Dahntay Jones, SG 0.261

LAKERS BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Lamar Odom, PF 1.209
Pau Gasol, PF 0.936
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.780
Luke Walton, SF 0.646
Kobe Bryant, SG 0.581
Shannon Brown, PG 0.369
Jordan Farmar, PG 0.261
Derek Fisher, PG 0.145
Andrew Bynum, C 0.092

COMBINED SORT BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 1.209
Anthony Carter, DEN PG 1.102
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.936
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.780
Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.646
Carmelo Anthony, DEN SF 0.631
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 0.581
Chauncey Billups, DEN PG 0.537
Linas Kleiza, DEN SF 0.509
Chris Andersen, DEN C 0.475
Nene, DEN C 0.473
Kenyon Martin, DEN PF 0.415
J.R. Smith, DEN SG 0.370
Shannon Brown, LAL PG 0.369
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 0.261
Dahntay Jones, DEN SG 0.261
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.145
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 0.092

EVALUATION SCALE FOR BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
Perfect for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.900 0.999
A Star Player / A Well Above Normal Starter 0.800 0.899
Very Good Player: A Solid Starter 0.700 0.799
Major Role Player / Good Enough to Start 0.600 0.699
Good Role Player / Often a Good 6th Man 0.500 0.599
Satisfactory Role Player 0.425 0.499
Marginal Role Player 0.350 0.424
Poor Player 0.275 0.349
Very Poor Player 0.200 0.274
Extremely Poor Player .199 and less

--------------------------------------------
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Basic Real Player Production
The adjustment for hidden defending is not valid for individual games and is not included.

NUGGETS BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Carmelo Anthony, SF 25.23
Chauncey Billups, PG 20.95
Kenyon Martin, PF 14.93
Nene, C 12.30
Anthony Carter, PG 12.12
Chris Andersen, C 11.40
J.R. Smith, SG 10.74
Linas Kleiza, SF 9.67
Dahntay Jones, SG 3.91

LAKERS BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Pau Gasol, PF 42.10
Lamar Odom, PF 38.70
Kobe Bryant, SG 26.13
Trevor Ariza, SF 24.97
Luke Walton, SF 9.69
Shannon Brown, PG 5.17
Derek Fisher, PG 3.91
Jordan Farmar, PG 1.83
Andrew Bynum, C 1.74

COMBINED SORT BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 42.10
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 38.70
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 26.13
Carmelo Anthony, DEN SF 25.23
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 24.97
Chauncey Billups, DEN PG 20.95
Kenyon Martin, DEN PF 14.93
Nene, DEN C 12.30
Anthony Carter, DEN PG 12.12
Chris Andersen, DEN C 11.40
J.R. Smith, DEN SG 10.74
Luke Walton, LAL SF 9.69
Linas Kleiza, DEN SF 9.67
Shannon Brown, LAL PG 5.17
Dahntay Jones, DEN SG 3.91
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 3.91
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 1.83
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 1.74

============== SUB RATINGS ==============
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
All Tracked Offensive Plays

NUGGETS OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Anthony Carter, PG 0.836
Chauncey Billups, PG 0.480
Carmelo Anthony, SF 0.460
Nene, C 0.325
Linas Kleiza, SF 0.322
Dahntay Jones, SG 0.241
Kenyon Martin, PF 0.202
J.R. Smith, SG 0.190
Chris Andersen, C 0.069

LAKERS OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Lamar Odom, PF 0.638
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.516
Kobe Bryant, SG 0.480
Pau Gasol, PF 0.394
Shannon Brown, PG 0.369
Luke Walton, SF 0.331
Derek Fisher, PG 0.330
Jordan Farmar, PG 0.261
Andrew Bynum, C 0.233

COMBINED SORT OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Anthony Carter, DEN PG 0.836
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.638
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.516
Chauncey Billups, DEN PG 0.480
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 0.480
Carmelo Anthony, DEN SF 0.460
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.394
Shannon Brown, LAL PG 0.369
Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.331
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.330
Nene, DEN C 0.325
Linas Kleiza, DEN SF 0.322
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 0.261
Dahntay Jones, DEN SG 0.241
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 0.233
Kenyon Martin, DEN PF 0.202
J.R. Smith, DEN SG 0.190
Chris Andersen, DEN C 0.069

-----------------------------------
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
All Tracked Defensive Plays
Does not include hidden defending because procedure is invalid at game level.

NUGGETS DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Chris Andersen, C 0.406
Anthony Carter, PG 0.265
Kenyon Martin, PF 0.213
Linas Kleiza, SF 0.187
J.R. Smith, SG 0.180
Carmelo Anthony, SF 0.171
Nene, C 0.148
Chauncey Billups, PG 0.057
Dahntay Jones, SG 0.020

LAKERS DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Lamar Odom, PF 0.572
Pau Gasol, PF 0.542
Luke Walton, SF 0.315
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.264
Kobe Bryant, SG 0.101
Jordan Farmar, PG 0.000
Shannon Brown, PG 0.000
Andrew Bynum, C -0.142
Derek Fisher, PG -0.185

COMBINED SORT DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.572
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.542
Chris Andersen, DEN C 0.406
Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.315
Anthony Carter, DEN PG 0.265
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.264
Kenyon Martin, DEN PF 0.213
Linas Kleiza, DEN SF 0.187
J.R. Smith, DEN SG 0.180
Carmelo Anthony, DEN SF 0.171
Nene, DEN C 0.148
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 0.101
Chauncey Billups, DEN PG 0.057
Dahntay Jones, DEN SG 0.020
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 0.000
Shannon Brown, LAL PG 0.000
Andrew Bynum, LAL C -0.142
Derek Fisher, LAL PG -0.185

-----------------------------------------
USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the following measures. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.

Real Player Ratings for the 2009 West Final, Game 4: Nuggets 120 Lakers 101

2009-12-14T09:23:00.000-08:00

Editorial Notice: Quest for the Ring will be between now and the end of 2009 providing a complete Real Player Rating Series Report, like the one below, for each and every 2009 West Final game, for each and every 2009 East Final game, and for each game in the 2009 NBA Final Series. The Mavericks-Nuggets West Semifinal series is also being covered this way in full.

Following the posting of the Real Player Ratings Series Reports, we will post the Real Game Ratings Reports for all of these games. Following these Real Game Ratings, which were just created in the spring of 2009 and which have hardly appeared on Quest at all yet, we will pick some games to focus on for full scale text Reports. In the text reports, we will of course as appropriate make use of and link back to the completed performance measure reports.

Quest for the Ring, as of spring 2009, has realistically and strategically decided to concentrate its advanced performance measurement, reporting, and analysis capabilities on the games that matter the most each year in the NBA: the conference final games and the NBA Championship games.

USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the following measures. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.

WEST FINAL 2009 GAME FOUR
MAY 25 2009 IN DENVER, CO
DENVER NUGGETS 120 LOS ANGELES LAKERS 101
SERIES IS TIED 2-2

BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
The adjustment for hidden defending is not valid for individual games and is not included.

LAKERS BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Pau Gasol, PF 1.191
Kobe Bryant, SG 0.952
Jordan Farmar, PG 0.952
Luke Walton, SF 0.836
Andrew Bynum, C 0.767
Sasha Vujacic, SG 0.269
Derek Fisher, PG 0.182
Lamar Odom, PF 0.024
Trevor Ariza, SF -0.199
Shannon Brown, PG -0.348

NUGGETS BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Nene, C 1.022
Chris Andersen, C 0.939
Dahntay Jones, SG 0.930
Kenyon Martin, PF 0.927
Linas Kleiza, SF 0.845
J.R. Smith, SG 0.811
Chauncey Billups, PG 0.759
Carmelo Anthony, SF 0.301

COMBINED SORT BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 1.191
Nene, DEN C 1.022
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 0.952
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 0.952
Chris Andersen, DEN C 0.939
Dahntay Jones, DEN SG 0.930
Kenyon Martin, DEN PF 0.927
Linas Kleiza, DEN SF 0.845
Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.836
J.R. Smith, DEN SG 0.811
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 0.767
Chauncey Billups, DEN PG 0.759
Carmelo Anthony, DEN SF 0.301
Sasha Vujacic, LAL SG 0.269
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.182
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.024
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF -0.199
Shannon Brown, LAL PG -0.348

EVALUATION SCALE FOR BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
Perfect for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.900 0.999
A Star Player / A Well Above Normal Starter 0.800 0.899
Very Good Player: A Solid Starter 0.700 0.799
Major Role Player / Good Enough to Start 0.600 0.699
Good Role Player / Often a Good 6th Man 0.500 0.599
Satisfactory Role Player 0.425 0.499
Marginal Role Player 0.350 0.424
Poor Player 0.275 0.349
Very Poor Player 0.200 0.274
Extremely Poor Player .199 and less

--------------------------------------------
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Basic Real Player Production
The adjustment for hidden defending is not valid for individual games and is not included.

LAKERS BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Pau Gasol, PF 41.68
Kobe Bryant, SG 39.02
Andrew Bynum, C 17.63
Jordan Farmar, PG 13.32
Luke Walton, SF 10.87
Derek Fisher, PG 4.18
Sasha Vujacic, SG 4.03
Lamar Odom, PF 0.73
Trevor Ariza, SF -5.17
Shannon Brown, PG -5.58

NUGGETS BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Nene, C 35.75
Kenyon Martin, PF 32.43
Chauncey Billups, PG 31.88
J.R. Smith, SG 22.70
Chris Andersen, C 22.54
Dahntay Jones, SG 17.67
Linas Kleiza, SF 10.99
Carmelo Anthony, SF 10.52

COMBINED SORT BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 41.68
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 39.02
Nene, DEN C 35.75
Kenyon Martin, DEN PF 32.43
Chauncey Billups, DEN PG 31.88
J.R. Smith, DEN SG 22.70
Chris Andersen, DEN C 22.54
Dahntay Jones, DEN SG 17.67
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 17.63
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 13.32
Linas Kleiza, DEN SF 10.99
Luke Walton, LAL SF 10.87
Carmelo Anthony, DEN SF 10.52
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 4.18
Sasha Vujacic, LAL SG 4.03
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.73
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF -5.17
Shannon Brown, LAL PG -5.58

============== SUB RATINGS ==============
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
All Tracked Offensive Plays

LAKERS OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Pau Gasol, PF 0.814
Luke Walton, SF 0.781
Kobe Bryant, SG 0.777
Andrew Bynum, C 0.735
Jordan Farmar, PG 0.671
Sasha Vujacic, SG 0.182
Derek Fisher, PG 0.068
Trevor Ariza, SF -0.057
Lamar Odom, PF -0.060
Shannon Brown, PG -0.305

NUGGETS OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Nene, C 0.854
Linas Kleiza, SF 0.798
Dahntay Jones, SG 0.776
J.R. Smith, SG 0.742
Chauncey Billups, PG 0.623
Kenyon Martin, PF 0.460
Carmelo Anthony, SF 0.340
Chris Andersen, C 0.327

COMBINED SORT OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Nene, DEN C 0.854
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.814
Linas Kleiza, DEN SF 0.798
Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.781
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 0.777
Dahntay Jones, DEN SG 0.776
J.R. Smith, SG DEN 0.742
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 0.735
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 0.671
Chauncey Billups, DEN PG 0.623
Kenyon Martin, DEN PF 0.460
Carmelo Anthony, DEN SF 0.340
Chris Andersen, DEN C 0.327
Sasha Vujacic, LAL SG 0.182
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.068
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF -0.057
Lamar Odom, LAL PF -0.060
Shannon Brown, LAL PG -0.305

-----------------------------------
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
All Tracked Defensive Plays
Does not include hidden defending because procedure is invalid at game level.

LAKERS DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Pau Gasol, PF 0.377
Jordan Farmar, PG 0.281
Kobe Bryant, SG 0.175
Derek Fisher, PG 0.113
Sasha Vujacic, SG 0.087
Lamar Odom, PF 0.085
Luke Walton, SF 0.055
Andrew Bynum, C 0.032
Shannon Brown, PG -0.043
Trevor Ariza, SF -0.142

NUGGETS DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Chris Andersen, C 0.613
Kenyon Martin, PF 0.466
Nene, C 0.167
Dahntay Jones, SG 0.154
Chauncey Billups, PG 0.136
J.R. Smith, SG 0.068
Linas Kleiza, SF 0.048
Carmelo Anthony, SF -0.040

COMBINED SORT DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Chris Andersen, DEN C 0.613
Kenyon Martin, DEN PF 0.466
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.377
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 0.281
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 0.175
Nene, DEN C 0.167
Dahntay Jones, DEN SG 0.154
Chauncey Billups, DEN PG 0.136
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.113
Sasha Vujacic, LAL SG 0.087
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.085
J.R. Smith, DEN SG 0.068
Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.055
Linas Kleiza, DEN SF 0.048
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 0.032
Carmelo Anthony, DEN SF -0.040
Shannon Brown, LAL PG -0.043
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF -0.142

-----------------------------------------
USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the following measures. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.

The Denver Nuggets have Defensive Problems and the Solution is Sitting on the Bench

2009-12-13T09:22:00.000-08:00

The Nuggets are following about the same defensive strategy as last year: aggressive and extra energetic, heavy fouling, a lot of switching, and mostly man to man with little zone. Interestingly though, the results have been different.

So far in 2009-10, the Denver Nuggets, for the first time in at least several years, have a very good perimeter defense. Players such as Aaron Afflalo, J.R. Smith, Chauncey Billups, and Ty Lawson are getting the perimeter defense done with some help from Nuggets forwards and centers.

But the Nuggets’ paint defense is very poor so far. The Nuggets are giving up far more back door layups and paint defense breakdowns than last year. Man to man defending in the paint is not as good this year as last. The defensive situation is basically the reverse of last year vis a vis perimeter versus paint.

For dependable playoffs wins, you need to have a more balanced defense than the Nuggets have this year. Worse for the Nuggets, if you have to be stuck with one or the other, its somewhat better to have a porous perimeter defense and a solid paint defense than the other way around. To sum it up bluntly, you absolutely must defend the paint well in the playoffs.

As a result of their weakness in crucial paint defending, the Nuggets overall are not as good defensively so far this year as they were last year.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets’ relatively poor defensive rebounding has been made even worse by the poor paint defending of the team. After Marcus Camby was given away by the owner due to the economics emergency, the Nuggets overnight went from being a great defensive rebounding team to a relatively poor one. They have never recovered, because none of the primary centers and forwards are great defensive rebounders, and a secondary problem is that Nuggets’ guards are not getting all of the rebounds that guards should get.

To solve the rebounding problem, the Nuggets have to get their guards to get more rebounds (which is reasonable to ask for since the paint defense breaks down so much) and they have to play power forward Renaldo Balkman more, who is an outstanding rebounder and an outstanding man to man defender.

Getting Carmelo Anthony to rebound more is a possibility too, but since Anthony has taken the offense on his back (and it was smart for him to do that) you don’t want him to start worrying about exactly how many rebounds he gets. Not to mention that Anthony will never be a great rebounder regardless of how much effort he puts into it. The costs exceed the benefits with respect to demanding that Anthony gets many more defensive rebounds.

The best defensive rebounders on the team are both sitting on the bench all the time: Renaldo Balkman and center Johan Petro. Nene and Chris Andersen are solid but not spectacular, but Kenyon Martin is a sub par rebounder at least as far as the playoffs are concerned and, as almost everyone knows, Carmelo Anthony is not even a good defensive rebounder. He is mediocre at best.

So we need to come back to Balkman: he is the solution to multiple problems that the Nuggets are having on defense right now. Renaldo Balkman is an excellent man to man paint defender and an excellent rebounder. Balkman is better at both of those things than Chris Andersen, but he is less popular in Denver so for that stupid reason Andersen plays and Balman does not. But the Nuggets need both of them.

Offensively, Balkman is similar to Chris Andersen: he fits in with the Nuggets’ fast breaking and free wheeling offense. Like Andersen, he gets a lot of offensive put backs, he can initiate or finish a fast break, he chooses shots wisely, and he can dunk the ball well. He is by no stretch a zero (or a very low number) offensively.

WILL THE NUGGETS SOLVE THEIR DEFENSIVE WEAKNESS BY PLAYING BALKMAN?
Will the Nuggets improve their poor rebounding and porous paint defending in order to shore up their defense, which in turn gives them a decent chance for a rematch with the Lakers in the 2010 West final? Most likely not; because Balkman is on the bench. And once George Karl has more or less benched someone in November, in most cases that player is more or less benched for the season.

Sure, Karl will once in a blue moon play a more or less benched player such as Balkman. He has to play such a player when there is an injury or two. But on those occasions the player will be judged far more critically than players who were never in that black hole known as the George Karl bench. So inevitably it will be back to the bench with that player after a game or a few games, unless there is a long term injury situation.

Do you remember that song “Hotel California”? “You can check out any time, but you can never leave”. That’s George Karl’s bench. A player on Karl’s bench can check out for a game or two or three, but he can’t completely break free from that bench until at least the following season.

Moreover, Karl consistently is biased in favor of reserves who are guards, particularly point guards and especially, although this may be just a coincidence, short point guards. Since overall Karl is not at all generous with playing time for reserves, you can deduce quickly that forwards who are not starters can end up very deep on the bench, which is precisely where Renaldo Balkman is this year.

But last year, Karl was a defensive animal more so than this year, and Balkman played, and Balkman had a very, very high Real Player Rating:

Carmelo Anthony DEN 0.901
Nene Hilario DEN 0.880
Chauncey Billups DEN 0.870
Chris Andersen DEN 0.835
J.R. Smith DEN 0.824
Renaldo Balkman DEN 0.815
Kenyon Martin DEN 0.754
Anthony Carter DEN 0.669
Linas Kleiza DEN 0.610
Dahntay Jones DEN 0.445

Balkman most definitely deserves a lot more playing time. More importantly, the Nuggets’ defense definitely needs Balkman to get a lot more playing time.

The Nuggets, despite the fact they use offensive strategies that are destined to fail sooner or later in the playoffs, are chock loaded with offensive talent. They have more than enough scorers. They can definitely afford to reduce the playing times of two or three guards. One possibility is that George Karl has a very bad habit of playing two point guards at once and, if he just stopped that, he would open up a good chunk of playing time for Balkman.

So far, since the strengths and weaknesses of the Nuggets’ defense have flipped around, opposing teams have not yet taken full advantage of the Nuggets’ poor paint defending. Opposing teams are still thinking that you can't score easily against the Nuggets in the paint. Soon though, it will be common knowledge around the League that unlike last year you can beat the Nuggets in the paint, at which time the Nuggets will be in much more jeopardy than they are now.

The bottom line: get Balkman in there now, Nuggets, or pay an increasing price as the season goes along. You have no chance of winning the West final with your defensive rebounding and paint defending the way it is now.

SUNS CHEATED AGAIN; COACH TOSSED WHEN HE PROTESTS
For the second straight year, the Phoenix Suns were cheated out of overtime and a very possible victory in Denver. This year’s annual “Suns are Cheated in Denver Game” was on Saturday night, December 12. Phoenix Coach Alvin Gentry was thrown out of the game with a few seconds left for going ballistic after Steve Nash drove through the porous Denver Nuggets paint defense and was fouled repeatedly by Nene. The only problem is: there was no foul called. So Nash could neither finish his layup nor make his free throws and the Suns could not tie the score. For the second straight year, a Phoenix at Denver overtime game was truncated into a Denver victory.

Last year, Dahntay Jones tripped Grant Hill going in for the tying score and there was no foul call.

Although so far it’s not as extreme as it was last year as far as the rate or, of course, the total number of improbable or lucky wins goes, the Nuggets are this year once again racking up lucky wins, often with unwitting, we hope accidental assistance from the referees. The Nuggets have won at least four disputable games so far, at least half of which should have been losses. Believe it or not, so far, this year’s disputable win rate is lower than last year’s. Last year's Nuggets disputable, controversial win rate was nothing short of science fiction.

Real Player Ratings for the 2009 West Final, Game 3: Lakers 103 Nuggets 97

2009-12-10T12:18:00.001-08:00

Editorial Notice: Quest for the Ring will be between now and the end of 2009 providing a complete Real Player Rating Series Report, like the one below, for each and every 2009 West Final game, for each and every 2009 East Final game, and for each game in the 2009 NBA Final Series. The Mavericks-Nuggets West Semifinal series is also being covered this way in full.

Following the posting of the Real Player Ratings Series Reports, we will post the Real Game Ratings Reports for all of these games. Following these Real Game Ratings, which were just created in the spring of 2009 and which have hardly appeared on Quest at all yet, we will pick some games to focus on for full scale text Reports. In the text reports, we will of course as appropriate make use of and link back to the completed performance measure reports.

Quest for the Ring, as of spring 2009, has realistically and strategically decided to concentrate its advanced performance measurement, reporting, and analysis capabilities on the games that matter the most each year in the NBA: the conference final games and the NBA Championship games.

USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the following measures. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.

WEST FINAL 2009 GAME THREE
MAY 23 2009 IN DENVER, CO
LOS ANGELES LAKERS 103 DENVER NUGGETS 97
LAKERS LEAD THE SERIES 2-1

BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
The adjustment for hidden defending is not valid for individual games.

LAKERS BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Kobe Bryant, SG 1.206
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.799
Pau Gasol, PF 0.641
Shannon Brown, PG 0.314
Lamar Odom, PF 0.295
Derek Fisher, PG 0.290
Andrew Bynum, C 0.257
Luke Walton, SF 0.171
Sasha Vujacic, SG 0.120
Jordan Farmar, PG 0.114

NUGGETS BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Chris Andersen, C 1.075
Linas Kleiza, SF 0.949
Chauncey Billups, PG 0.711
Dahntay Jones, SG 0.690
J.R. Smith, SG 0.582
Nene, C 0.485
Carmelo Anthony, SF 0.475
Kenyon Martin, PF 0.206
Anthony Carter, PG 0.192

COMBINED SORT BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 1.206
Chris Andersen, DEN C 1.075
Linas Kleiza, DEN SF 0.949
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.799
Chauncey Billups, DEN PG 0.711
Dahntay Jones, DEN SG 0.690
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.641
J.R. Smith, DEN SG 0.582
Nene, DEN C 0.485
Carmelo Anthony, DEN SF 0.475
Shannon Brown, LAL PG 0.314
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.295
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.290
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 0.257
Kenyon Martin, DEN PF 0.206
Anthony Carter, DEN PG 0.192
Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.171
Sasha Vujacic, LAL SG 0.120
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 0.114

EVALUATION SCALE FOR BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
Perfect for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.900 0.999
A Star Player / A Well Above Normal Starter 0.800 0.899
Very Good Player: A Solid Starter 0.700 0.799
Major Role Player / Good Enough to Start 0.600 0.699
Good Role Player / Often a Good 6th Man 0.500 0.599
Satisfactory Role Player 0.425 0.499
Marginal Role Player 0.350 0.424
Poor Player 0.275 0.349
Very Poor Player 0.200 0.274
Extremely Poor Player .199 and less

--------------------------------------------
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Basic Real Player Production
The adjustment for hidden defending is not valid for individual games

LAKERS BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Kobe Bryant, SG 49.46
Pau Gasol, PF 27.58
Trevor Ariza, SF 25.55
Lamar Odom, PF 8.85
Derek Fisher, PG 7.53
Andrew Bynum, C 5.39
Shannon Brown, PG 2.51
Luke Walton, SF 2.40
Jordan Farmar, PG 1.59
Sasha Vujacic, SG 1.44

NUGGETS BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Chauncey Billups, PG 28.43
Chris Andersen, C 25.79
Carmelo Anthony, SF 17.56
J.R. Smith, SG 15.13
Nene, C 15.03
Linas Kleiza, SF 13.29
Dahntay Jones, SG 11.73
Kenyon Martin, PF 7.20
Anthony Carter, PG 2.88

COMBINED SORT BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 49.46
Chauncey Billups, DEN PG 28.43
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 27.58
Chris Andersen, DEN C 25.79
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 25.55
Carmelo Anthony, DEN SF 17.56
J.R. Smith, DEN SG 15.13
Nene, DEN C 15.03
Linas Kleiza, DEN SF 13.29
Dahntay Jones, DEN SG 11.73
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 8.85
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 7.53
Kenyon Martin, DEN PF 7.20
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 5.39
Anthony Carter, DEN PG 2.88
Shannon Brown, LAL PG 2.51
Luke Walton, LAL SF 2.40
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 1.59
Sasha Vujacic, LAL SG 1.44

============== SUB RATINGS ==============
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
All Tracked Offensive Plays

LAKERS OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Kobe Bryant, SG 1.032
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.601
Pau Gasol, PF 0.341
Lamar Odom, PF 0.254
Jordan Farmar, PG 0.069
Derek Fisher, PG 0.051
Shannon Brown, PG 0.050
Sasha Vujacic, SG -0.082
Andrew Bynum, C -0.107
Luke Walton, SF -0.109

NUGGETS OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Dahntay Jones, SG 0.772
Chris Andersen, C 0.660
J.R. Smith, SG 0.597
Chauncey Billups, PG 0.424
Linas Kleiza, SF 0.411
Nene, C 0.361
Carmelo Anthony, SF 0.273
Anthony Carter, PG 0.172
Kenyon Martin, PF 0.087

COMBINED SORT OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 1.032
Dahntay Jones, DEN SG 0.772
Chris Andersen, DEN C 0.660
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.601
J.R. Smith, DEN SG 0.597
Chauncey Billups, DEN PG 0.424
Linas Kleiza, DEN SF 0.411
Nene, DEN C 0.361
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.341
Carmelo Anthony, DEN SF 0.273
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.254
Anthony Carter, DEN PG 0.172
Kenyon Martin, DEN PF 0.087
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 0.069
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.051
Shannon Brown, LAL PG 0.050
Sasha Vujacic, LAL SG -0.082
Andrew Bynum, LAL C -0.107
Luke Walton, LAL -0.109

-----------------------------------
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
All Tracked Defensive Plays
Does not include hidden defending because procedure is invalid at game level.

LAKERS DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Andrew Bynum, C 0.364
Pau Gasol, PF 0.300
Luke Walton, SF 0.281
Shannon Brown, PG 0.264
Derek Fisher, PG 0.239
Sasha Vujacic, SG 0.202
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.198
Kobe Bryant, SG 0.174
Jordan Farmar, PG 0.044
Lamar Odom, PF 0.041

NUGGETS DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Linas Kleiza, SF 0.539
Chris Andersen, C 0.415
Chauncey Billups, PG 0.287
Carmelo Anthony, SF 0.201
Nene, C 0.124
Kenyon Martin, PF 0.119
Anthony Carter, PG 0.020
J.R. Smith, SG -0.015
Dahntay Jones, SG -0.082

COMBINED SORT DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Linas Kleiza, DEN SF 0.539
Chris Andersen, DEN C 0.415
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 0.364
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.300
Chauncey Billups, DEN PG 0.287
Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.281
Shannon Brown, LAL PG 0.264
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.239
Sasha Vujacic, LAL SG 0.202
Carmelo Anthony, DEN SF 0.201
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.198
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 0.174
Nene, DEN C 0.124
Kenyon Martin, DEN PF 0.119
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 0.044
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.041
Anthony Carter, DEN PG 0.020
J.R. Smith, DEN SG -0.015
Dahntay Jones, DEN SG -0.082

-----------------------------------------
USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the following measures. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.

It's all Good now that Allen Iverson is Back Home Again

2009-12-08T13:49:00.000-08:00

Home is where the heart is, so home in Philadelphia is where you will now find Allen Iverson, who still in 2009 is the heart of basketball. Iverson is not the greatest team player in history, but Iverson haters and anyone else for that matter who thinks that basketball is a team sport only are very, very wrong. Basketball is a team and an individual sport at the same time, you silly fools. I ask the Iverson haters and basketball fools: can’t you walk and chew gum at the same time? Can’t you see that Rings are won by teams that have both high quality team play and historical superstar individual players? You need to find another sport if you disagree with this, because this is how it is and this is how it always will be while basketball is being played.

Iverson was punked by the Denver Nuggets, treated as a marketing asset and not as a weapon to try to win a Championship with. Detroit was even worse: the Pistons not only punked Iverson, but they punked all their players and all their fans for that matter. The Pistons totally threw away their 2008-09 season as they hunkered down awaiting the summer of 2010 free agency gold mine.

You never, ever throw away a season if you ever want to win a Ring, but Detroit did just that. Iverson quit Detroit late in that season, but even players who were still playing had partially quit. For example, Rasheed Wallace was only about 3/4 the player for Detroit in 2008-09 that he is now for 2010 Ring front-runner Boston. Wallace, Tayshaun Prince, Aaron Afflalo, and even Richard Hamilton didn’t go all out because General Manager Joe Dumars stupidly announced long before that season started that Detroit was in rebuilding mode, that all current Pistons might stay or go in the summer of 2010 depending on who knows what, and that the bulk of the rebuilding would take place in the summer of 2010. The coach, Michael Curry, was a rookie who literally never quit rearranging his lineups and rotations the whole season long: he literally was unable to decide which lineup and which rotations were the best. Is there really all that much to play for after that kind of announcement from the General Manager and with that kind of inept Coach (who of course was fired after the season)?

One can only hope that Dumars’ team fails to become a winning team even in 2010-11, after he picks up a big star or two, which will emphasize the points that you never ever waste a season, that you never ever announce rebuilding way in advance, and that you never ever assume your rebuilding is going to work out. Dumars needs to be taught a lesson that no one will ever forget.

So Iverson quit the Pistons in March 2009, but we know as fact that he was quitting a team that had quit as a whole. So Iverson was entirely logical to quit, which isn’t the first time he has been logical. Iverson is logical all the time, but he is not strategic. He sometimes does things that are logical in a narrow sense, but are counterproductive in an overall sense. Iverson is never going to coach basketball. He thinks well and correctly, but not strategically. He misses the forest for the trees sometimes. If there ever was a great player who needed quality coaching, Iverson is that one, but he never had a quality coach. He was cheated badly in that respect; his coaches all failed to coach him correctly.

Those who see the whole forest can think strategically. Coaches are supposed to think strategically, but some fail at this, either because they don’t think strategically either, or because they just are not any good at picking out the best strategy out of many possibilities. Phil Jackson picks out one of the best strategies to get things done on the basketball court and George Karl sometimes (often?) picks out one of the not so good strategies. Jackson wins Rings and Karl doesn’t. Strategies are very important.

I checked the depth charts on December 7, 2009, the day Iverson was to play for the Philadelphia 76’ers for the first time since exactly three years ago in 2006. ESPN did not have Iverson on the 76’ers depth chart at all yet, but CBS Sportsline showed Iverson as the starting point guard. Not the starting 2-guard, but the starting point guard. The media has through the years time and again showed Iverson as a point guard, but coaches making errors (by accident or on purpose, on orders from owners or general managers) have persisted from time to time in removing his point guard designation, foisting him onto the shooting guard position, and thus making a total mess of both Iverson’s game and the team offense.

Iverson has been repeatedly cheated and badly coached by a series of mistaken coaches, who, remember, are total dictators. A player can not refuse to play a position for any reason; Iverson is not at fault for refusing to play 2-guard; all players have to and always do play whatever position they are assigned to by the dictator coaches. Whether Iverson would have insisted on continuing at point guard had he had the power to do so is an interesting question that we will never know the answer to.

THE SPECIAL REPORT
This article is just an outline of the full treatment of this subject, which is found in a partly completed Quest Special Report: “Allen Iverson, What Could Have Been”. We are re-editing the existing chapters in that Report and will be adding many more chapters. We are going to make a complete record on how Iverson’s career and how was cheated out of a real chance to win a Championship Ring. And we are going to in great detail explain just how idiotic the Iverson haters are. Because there is so much other work going on, this is going to take a year or two, three years at the most, but I guarantee you this project will eventually be completed.

HOME IS BY FAR THE BEST PLACE TO BE
So Iverson was cheered greatly in Philly on December 7, 2009 like he was for years and years before. He was starting point guard for the 76’ers just like he was at the start of his rookie year in 1996. Before Larry Brown came along and fouled things up after he decided to fight Allen Iverson rather than meet him half way.

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Iverson was jerked from 1-guard to 2-guard, which eventually led to his being jerked from Philadelphia to Denver and then from Denver to Detroit. Now he is back where it all began, and where it was always supposed to be.

There was never any other position and place for Iverson that could work than point guard in Philadelphia. Iverson could have been a point guard in Denver, but Denver did not have the quality coaching to bring that about. So Iverson was and is like a rare and extremely valuable rock in the earth that is only found in one place. Any other position or place was doomed to failure.

But Iverson as point guard in Philadelphia was gold and was priceless. Had Larry Brown not wimped out during his temper tantrums over Iverson and made the idiotic decision to move Iverson to 2-guard, the 76’ers most likely would have won at least one Ring with Iverson at point guard in Philadelphia.. That was how it was supposed to be according to what basketball actually, really is: a combination of a team game and an individual game. You need both a quality team game and players who can score one on one regardless of the defending. Iverson always knew this, Larry Brown not so much, and George Karl definitely not.

While playing both guard positions at once in the 2001 playoffs, Iverson took the 76’ers to the Championship and lost to Shaquille O’Neal, Kobe Bryant, point guard Derek Fisher, and Coach Phil Jackson. That the 76’ers were even in that Championship was a miracle due to Iverson and Iverson alone. Just a few years earlier, the year before Iverson was first draft pick for them, the 76’ers were the worst team in basketball, a team that could not even win 20 games. This was a team even worse than recent Memphis Grizzlies teams. Iverson moved that pathetic 76'ers team up zillions of miles; he’ll get Hall of Fame just for that unheard of achievement alone.

Basketball was stale in 2001 when Iverson had the 76’ers in the Championship. The guy who lost the election was nevertheless the President, the economic boom of the Clinton years had come to a close, and in general society was teetering on the brink of disaster. In that year, most people were deciding to not believe in things anymore: to tune out and to chill out. But there was Iverson playing basketball the way anyone with historic one on one skills should play it, wrong position and all, a short 5 feet 11 ½ inches and all, bad team and all. Iverson was in effect playing with one hand behind his back, or else he was like two players in one, I’m not quite sure which the better way to look at it is.

But he was still the best and he was still taking the 76’ers to the brink of the most improbable, no, the most impossible ring you could ever imagine. It was impossible that the 76’ers, just a few years removed from 18-64 the year before Iverson arrived could even be in the Championship, let alone win it. Yet there they were, and there was Iverson; who other than the haters will ever forget it?

Iverson saved basketball from being stale, he made a lot of money for a lot of people, Allen Iverson was basketball, and he will be basketball forever.

Now MVP, Hall of Fame, and career 76’er point guard Iverson has come home. The haters are irrelevant again; they are just a bunch of jerks who don’t deserve the time of day. Meanwhile, Larry Brown is irrelevant now too; he currently is in charge of the worst offense in the League (Charlotte Bobcats) because for one thing he doesn’t fully appreciate what point guards can do.

All is right with basketball again now that Allen Iverson is back home.

Break Time: K'naan Music and Laugh out Loud, George Karl!

2009-12-04T12:21:00.001-08:00

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On a High Quality Offense that can win a Ring, and Why Chauncey Billups is Partly Wasted by the Denver Nuggets

2009-12-03T20:49:00.000-08:00

There is no denying that Chauncey Billups of the Denver Nuggets is one of the top point guards in pro basketball. Almost everyone knows he is much better than the starting point guard for the Los Angeles Lakers, Derek Fisher. For the Lakers, some point guard duties that ideally would be performed by a point guard are performed by superstar 2-guard Kobe Bryant instead. Unlike many guards including even Allen Iverson, Kobe Bryant can often successfully in effect play both guard positions at once for long stretches of time.

But in order to get the full advantage of any top NBA player, you have to set the framework to make sure that player does what he does best as much as possible. If necessary, you have to keep reminding that player to do as much of what he does best as possible.

The Denver Nuggets have from time to time failed to do this with many key players. This Report will focus on one important Nugget: point guard Chauncey Billups.

There is an extremely strong correlation between playoff and Championship wins and assists, but especially assists by the designated point guards and, in some cases, by 2-guards who, either because they have point guard skills or because they are superstars, (like Kobe Bryant and Dwyane Wade) make a lot of high quality assists themselves. A high quality assist is when a player who is not likely to score on a play finds a player who is in one of his favorite situations for scoring and/or a player who is undefended, whereupon that player makes the score. An ordinary assist is any assist where the player making the assist might just as well have scored himself, or where the player who actually scored was not in a prime situation to score, but was able to score anyway.

The Quest for the Ring has developed offensive quality performance measures that get at the crucial subject of quality of offense, such as “playmaking identity”. You will see these measures in Real Game Reports, which as of this writing have been published for only a very small number of games. If you visit here regularly in the future, you will get to know “playmaking identity” and related concepts very well.

There are some coaches, with George Karl the most notable among them, who don’t accept (or maybe don’t understand) the importance of the difference between quality and ordinary assists, and who don’t subscribe to the idea that point guards are crucial to getting quality assists, to keeping the passing game going, and to occasionally running plays developed in practice where scorers get the ball in situations where it is most likely they can score. Although Karl and coaches in his mold are not against assists per se, they seemingly believe that all assists are the very same value. Moreover, Karl and coaches of his type believe that every player on the court is about equally responsible for keeping the passing game going.

Here is why the way Karl and anyone who thinks like him are wrong:

--More assists are generally better than fewer assists, but quality assists are far more valuable than ordinary assists for winning NBA playoff games.

-- The passing game will not always be where you need it to be to win playoff games unless the point guard has primary responsibility for maintaining it. To one degree or another, at some time or another, non-point guard players will eventually fall into the trap of attempting to get too many isolation scores.

--When a player other than a point guard or a superstar 2-guard makes an assist, it is not necessarily a positive thing, all things considered. For one thing, that player might have scored himself. If that player starts getting hooked on “looking for the open man” at the expense of looking to see if he can score himself, then that player’s overall effectiveness will be lower, not higher. Generally, if you are not a point guard, you look for the open man if and only if you think you are not in a good situation to score on the play. You don’t want to be often passing, regardless of how many assists you might rack up, in situations where you yourself have a good chance of making the score yourself.

--If the point guard is not primarily responsible for quality assists and keeping the passing game going, he will probably start taking unwise shots, so as to avoid becoming irrelevant in the offense. Other than superstar point guards who are great scorers, point guards should, even more so than other players, avoid impulsive “reach” type shooting. But under Karl’s approach, point guards will tend to take more reach shots than many of the other players.

CHAUNCEY BILLUPS ASSISTS PER 36 MINUTES
1997-98 5.1
1998-99 4.2
1999-00 4.6
2000-01 5.2
2001-02 6.9
2002-03 4.4
2003-04 5.8
2004-05 5.8
2005-06 8.6
2006-07 7.1
2007-08 7.6
2008-09 6.5
2009-10 6.7
CAREER: 6.3

Ok, now notice that in 2005-06, Billups made 8.6 assists per 36 minutes, which is almost 30% more assists than he is making for the Nuggets now. Billups was on the Pistons that year, and they finished 64-18 in the regular season. After beating the Milwaukee Bucks 4-1 in the first round, and the Cleveland Cavaliers 4-3 in the semifinals, Billups and the Pistons lost the East final series 4-2 to the Miami Heat.

The previous year, 2004-05, Billups made only 5.8 assists per 36 minutes, but the results were about the same. That year, the Pistons beat the Philadelphia 76’ers 4-1 in round one, then they beat the Indiana Pacers 4-2 in the semifinals, and then they beat the Miami Heat 4-3 in the East Final. But the Pistons lost to Greg Popovich and the San Antonio Spurs 4-3 in the 2005 Championship.

The previous year, 2003-04, Billups made the same assist rate as in 2004-05, 5.8 per 36 minutes. That year, the Pistons beat the Milwaukee Bucks 4-1 in round one, then they beat the New Jersey Nets 4-3 in round two, and then they beat the Indiana Pacers 4-2 in the East Final. In the 2004 NBA Championship, the Pistons easily defeated the Los Angeles Lakers 4-1.

So looking at all of that, you might say “Got you: Billups made fewer assists per minute when he won the Championship in 2004 than he is making for the Nuggets so far this year (2010). So there is nothing wrong with what Billups is doing for the Nuggets this year.

Well, then we have to dig a little deeper, don’t we, because Quest can’t be wrong, laugh out loud.

True, Chauncey Billups is making slightly more assists this year than when he won the Championship. But the 2004 Pistons were a defensive oriented team and were, like the 2008 Celtics, relying more on defense to win their rings than they were on offense. In fact, that Pistons team was overwhelmingly relying on defense to win, more so than the 2008 Celtics, and they were hardly relying on offense at all! The offense was practically an afterthought, although it was run on rock solid principles and was not merely an offshoot of the defense and a sort of gimmick type offense as the 2008-09 Nuggets offense was.

By contrast, the Nuggets both in 2008-09 and even more so this year are relying as much on volume scoring as on defense. The bottom line is that the 2009 and 2010 Nuggets are much more dependent on the quantity and quality of their offense than were the 2003 Pistons, yet Chauncey Billups is making only slightly more assists per 36 minutes for the Nuggets than he did for the Pistons when he and the Pistons won the Ring. He needs to be making more assists than he is if the Nuggets want to contest for a Ring.

Chauncey Billups made 8.6 assists per 36 minutes in 2005-06, which is the most of any year. While it might possibly be a stretch to say that he should be making that many for the Nuggets, he should at a rock bottom minimum making 7.5 per 36 minutes. Billups is making at least one fewer assist per 36 minutes (and per game) and probably two fewer per game than he should be making if the Nuggets are serious about winning a Championship. The Nuggets can not win an NBA Championship with Chauncey Billups making only slightly more assists than he made for the defensively oriented 2003 Pistons.

DIGGING EVEN DEEPER
In 2003-04, there were only five teams out of 28 other teams who scored fewer points per game than did the Pistons; they scored only 90.4 points per game that year. Flash forward to 2008-09, and we see that the Nuggets scored 104.3 points per game. So from there you can see the problem in stark detail:

In 2003-04, Billups wins a Ring while making 5.8 assists per 36 minutes for a team that scored 90.4 points per game. In 2008-09, Billups made 6.5 assists per 36 minutes for a team that scored 104.3 points per game. So in 2003-04, Billups’ assists per time versus team points per game ratio was .064, whereas in 2008-09 it was .062, slightly less. So far in 2009-10, that ratio for Billups is .061. Relative to points being scored, Billups is doing slightly less for the Nuggets than he did for the Pistons. Despite the fact that Denver is a much more talented offensive team than were the 2003 Pistons, Billups is not making any more assists, relative to points, for the highly skilled Nuggets than he did for the much less skilled Pistons. In a word this is a waste of both Billups and of the high skill of the Nuggets finishers, players such as Nene, Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith, and even the rookie Ty Lawson.

We’ve proved what we wanted to prove, but what the heck, let’s dig even deeper….

DIGGING DEEPER STILL: LOOKING AT ALL THE GUARDS
Now let’s have a look at all the guards on both teams:

2003-04 CHAMPION DETROIT PISTONS ASSISTS PER 36 MINS OF GUARDS
Guards who played less than 300 minutes during the entire season are not relevant and are not included

Chauncey Billups 5.8 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 446 assists.
Mike James 6.7 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 95 assists
Chucky Atkins 4.6 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 95 assists
Lindsey Hunter 4.6 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 85 assists
Bob Sura 4.5 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 89 assists
Richard Hamilton 4.0 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 310 assists
TOTAL 2003 PISTONS ASSISTS 1,702

2008-09 DENVER NUGGETS ASSISTS PER 36 MINS OF GUARDS
Guards who played less than 300 minutes during the entire season are not relevant and are not included

Chauncey Billups 6.5 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 491 assists
Anthony Carter 7.3 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 364 assists
JR Smith 3.6 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 227 assists
Dahntay Jones 2.0 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 78 assists
TOTAL 2009 NUGGETS ASSISTS 1,820

First, note that the 2003 Pistons had more playmaking guards than did the 2009 Nuggets, six versus four. And one of the Nuggets’ guards, Jones, made only 2.0 assists per 36 minutes. That big discrepancy is yet another fact that strongly suggests that Billups should have made even more assists than he did in 2008-09.

Since the Pistons were not relying on offense very much to win a Ring, the total number of assists was not as important as it is for any team that is relying on offense to win a Ring. Sure enough, as you will shortly see, the 2003 Pistons made substantially fewer assists than did the 2009 Nuggets.

As you continue in this section, keep in mind that quality assists are more valuable than ordinary assists.

As a percentage of all team assists made, Billups made 26.2% of the 2003 Pistons guards’ assists, and 27.0% of the 2009 Nuggets guards’ assists. But since the 2009 Nuggets had fewer guards making assists and especially fewer guards making assists at a good rate, Billups should have made a much greater percentage than 27% of the 2009 Nuggets assists. In other words, too many of the Nuggets assists were left to guards other than Billups and to non-guard players.

Again, the point is that Billups was wasted to some extent in 2008-09 and is again being wasted this year so far, especially considering how loaded up with scoring talent the Nuggets are. True, the regular season offense was good last year and is excellent so far this year despite this problem, but remember that this is not some ordinary basketball site.

This is the Quest for the Ring, where we focus on winning playoff games. And you do lose key playoff games and series if your point guard is not being used more strategically than the Nuggets are using Billups. If you want to win a Ring, among some other duties, your point guard must be primarily responsible for making quality assists, for playmaking identity, for keeping the passing game going, and for making sure that an occasional practiced play is run.

ASSISTS BY ALL GUARDS COMBINED
The number of assists made by all guards for the 2009 Nuggets was 1,160, which was 63.7% of the team total. Meanwhile, the number of assists made by all guards for the 2003 Pistons was 1,120, which was 65.8 percent of the team total. So Pistons guards made substantially more assists than did the Nuggets guards.

Do not let the apparently small difference fool you. This means that one out of every 50 assists that was made by a Pistons guard was made by a Nuggets forward or center, and this is a small but significant difference. This kind of thing can mean a different total number of assists and, more importantly, a different number of the quality assists that win you Championships.

This shows you that the 2009 Nuggets were relying more on forwards and centers to make assists than were the Championship-winning 2003 Pistons. Yet again, the Nuggets were a much higher scoring team than were the 2003 Pistons, so this should have been the other way around: the Nuggets’ guards should have made a greater percentage of all assists than the Pistons’ guards did.

We have now shown and proved in numerous ways the following conclusion. It is a bad idea to rely less on your guards and especially your point guards for assists and to instead therefore rely more on your forwards and centers for assists. George Karl and coaches who think that key responsibilities that have to be assigned to point guards or superstar 2-guards should be distributed relatively evenly throughout the team (or at least much more evenly than on many teams traditionally) are dead wrong. It will be next to impossible for any team following Karl’s approach to win a Championship.

2009-10 Real Coach Ratings: Phil Jackson Ahead of George Karl by a Factor of About 10 to 1

2009-12-02T16:43:00.000-08:00

The ideal time for the annual Real Coach Ratings to come out is just before the season starts, in October. We missed that schedule, but the first of December is really not that late, and it is certainly better than never.

One of the coaches in the Report, Byron Scott, was fired by the New Orleans Hornets during November, but his Rating is included. The new Hornets Coach is Jeff Bower, who has no experience as a head coach in the NBA. Bower's rating would be 200 by rule.

As always, there has been some tweaking since the last version of this Report. We slightly reduced the "penalty" for losses, which reduced the power in our built in solution to the huge differences in experience problem. There is much more about this in the User Guide.

Another change is a new factor: points awarded for the number of Championship series appearances: 12 points for each. This has the effect of increasing the playoff game experience award for a Coach for Championship games from three to approximately five.

We are showing you the entire spreadsheet so that you can see for yourself not only the ratings but also all of the raw data.

The User Guide for Real Coach Ratings is being updated to reflect the latest coach rating technology. You must consult the User Guide in order to truly undertand and to be able to make valid use of these ratings.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tYzBgg6wRLxH5BsShf7fdZQ&single=true&gid=4&output=html

Real Player Ratings of Major Contenders one Month into the 2009-10 Season

2009-11-29T16:10:00.000-08:00

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR THE MAJOR CONTENDERS
Each of the three major 2010 contending teams has that mega or historical superstar you look for when you consider whether a team can win a Ring. The Celtics have Rajon Rondo, the Lakers have Kobe Bryant, and the Cavaliers have LeBron James, who is the only one of these three who is in the "Major Historical Superstar" range. James is, amazingly, comfortably in that range.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Quite honestly the Cavaliers are at the moment hanging on for dear life as a major contender, and either the Mavericks or the Magic may bump the Cavaliers down to the wild card class of teams by the end of December. I refuse to count out LeBron James and the Cavaliers this early in the season, though.

LeBron James is well ahead of Rondo and Bryant, but given Cleveland's overall roster in general, and the big drop off of Zydrunas Ilgauskas in particular, James will need to be even better than he has been so far, or else Anderson Varajao and Mo Williams, who have been great, will need to be even greater, or else Shaquille O'Neal is going to have to play like he did years ago, or some other miraculous thing will have to happen, if the Cavaliers are to win a Ring this year over the Celtics and Lakers.

Let's take a quick look at the Cavaliers starters and their three key reserves so far this season....

Small forward LeBron James finished with a RPR of 1.331 last year, the highest in the NBA, whereas this year he is 1.243 so far. LeBron, you are slacking, laugh out loud.

Point guard Mo Williams finished with a RPR of .789 last year and is .746 so far this year.

2-guard Anthony Parker is obviously being crowded out by LeBron James, who successfully plays both the two and the three spots at the same time. James has to do this to some extent, or the Cavaliers have no chance at all. Parker is only .494 so far this year; he was .661 for Toronto last year.

Power forward J.J. Hickson was .485 for Cleveland last year, and is down to .434 so far this year. Hickson is hurting the Cavaliers and should be playing less than he is. Anderson Varejao is playing far better than Hickson, and the Cavaliers should always be starting Varejao over Hickson. Simply making sure that Varejao gets a little more playing time than does Hickson is not going to cut it. It should be a lot more playing time. Varejao was .694 last year but is far better at .862 so far this year.

Shaquille O'Neal, the replacement starting center for the fading Zydrunas Ilgauskas, has not yet played 300 minutes. Ilgauskas has collapsed from .913 last year to .585 so far this year.

Despite the fact that Jamario Moon technically backs up LeBron James at small forward, he gets a lot of playing time, and he deserves it. He is .787 so far this year, which is solid starter rank, and he is an extremely good defender who unlike many great defenders is also an offensive asset. Last year, Moon was .849 for Toronto. The fact that Moon has not dropped by more than .100 by being on LeBron James' team tells you that Moon complements James well. The bottom line is that the Cavaliers have to give Moon as much playing time as they possibly can, or they will probably not be able to defeat the Celtics this year.

Finally, backup point guard Daniel Gibson was .478 for the Cavaliers last year, and is a better .588 so far this year.

BOSTON CELTICS
Celtics' point guard Rajon Rondo is hanging very close to Kobe Bryant after one month of the 2009-10 season. This spells big, big trouble for Los Angeles and especially for Cleveland. The Cavaliers may simply not be able to beat the Celtics if Rondo is offsetting LeBron James to the extent he is right now, and given that the Celtics other than Rondo are well ahead of the Cavaliers other than James. Rajon Rondo has so far this year completed a remarkable transformation from young yet very, very solid to an historical superstar point guard. Last year, Rondo was a .938, and now so far this year, Rondo is in Hall of Fame / Most Valuable Player territory with a 1.046.

Also for the Celtics, power forward Kevin Garnett has even now not come all the way back from his early 2009 injury, but Rasheed Wallace, who is the Celtics 6th man backing up Kevin Garnett at power forward, is playing much better than he did for Detroit last year, especially defensively, and this has partly made up for Garnett not being at 100%. Garnett himself finished with a RPR of 1.106 last year, and is only .875 so far this year, but look for that to gradually rise and expect Garnett to finish the season above 1.000. Wallace was only .767 for Detroit last year, but he is .816 for Boston this year and, more importantly, Wallace is so far the 2nd best defensive player on the three contenders, behind only Anderson Varejao of the Cavaliers. Wallace, if he continues to play this well on defense, guarantees Boston a repeat application in 2010 of their very strong defensive strategy of 2008.

As if Garnett and Wallace are not already enough power and potential up front, the Celtics also have starting center Kendrick Perkins up from last year: from .666 to .750.

Small forward Paul Pierce did not have one of his very best seasons last year, but this year is different. He is up sharply from .795 last year to .912 so far this year.

Finally, no matter how old he gets, small forward Ray Allen, who is down only very slightly from last year to this, continues to be a huge offensive asset and a decent defensive player in the Celtics' quest for their second ring in three years. Marquis Daniels is now the backup for Allen at 2-guard. He was .710 for Indiana last year, and is .565 so far this year. This drop is likely due to the simple fact that Daniels doesn't get to make as many plays for the major contender Celtics as he did for the Pacers last year.

As we have seen, Pierce, Rondo, Wallace, and Perkins have together more than made up for the need for Garnett to complete his injury recovery. As a result, the Celtics' 2009-10 start has been truly awesome, and so far the Celtics are at least as good a team as they were in 2007-08 when they won the Quest for the Ring.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Phil Jackson and the Lakers, with Pau Gasol out for the 11 first games of the season, decided they missed Gasol's offense even more than they missed his defense. So to compensate for no Gasol, Jackson and the Lakers decided to rely much more on defense than they normally do to win the early games, which they mostly did.

Lakers mega star Kobe Bryant is playing almost exactly as well so far this year as he did last year when he won his 4th ring (5th Ring counting his MVP as a Ring.) Bryant was 1.075 last year and is 1.093 so far this year (historical superstar both years).

The new Lakers' small forward, Ron Artest is substantially better this year than Trevor Ariza was at that position last year. Artest is .838 so far this year whereas Ariza was .766 for all of last year. Incidentally, Artest for Houston last year was .806.

On the other hand, power forward Lamar Odom is down from .923 to .865. Similarly, center Andrew Bynum is down slightly, from .940 to .900. Both of these players are undoubtedly being negatively affected by the absence of Gasol, who loves to find them for layups and dunks.

LA point guard Derek Fisher (.660 RPR) is playing almost exactly as well this year as he did last year so far, which is in the Good Role Player category. However, keep in mind that Fisher's role for the Lakers is far greater than his RPR would indicate, because he very reliably translates Phil Jackson's strategies and tactics into actual positive results on the court.

BOTTOM LINE
Assuming no major injuries intrude, we are looking at a Celtics-Lakers Championship in 2010, a rematch of the 2008 Championship, and several other identical NBA Championships of history. The Cavaliers may or may not be a major contender, but that they are going to have to transform to compete with the Celtics and the Lakers is clear. Either or both of the wild card teams Mavericks and Magic may eventually be better than the 2010 Cavaliers. All in all, the Cavaliers, Mavericks, and Magic form a "second tier" for the 2010 Quest for the Ring. These three teams are waiting in the wings should the Celtics or Lakers stumble badly due to injury or, much less likely, something other than injury.

We still like the Lakers 4-3, but quite honestly you could call it 4-3 Celtics and you would not get much of an argument from me.

Now using the recently tweaked so they are almost perfect Real Player Rating formulas, let's check to see exactly how good the players on the three major contender teams are so far. All players who have played at least 300 minutes are shown; at least 300 minutes are needed for the hidden defending adjustment (HDA) to be valid. The HDA is included in the following.

REAL PLAYER RATINGS
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included

Kobe Bryant LAL 1.093
Andrew Bynum LAL 0.900
Lamar Odom LAL 0.865
Ron Artest LAL 0.838
Derek Fisher LAL 0.660

Rajon Rondo BOS 1.046
Paul Pierce BOS 0.912
Kevin Garnett BOS 0.875
Rasheed Wallace BOS 0.816
Kendrick Perkins BOS 0.750
Ray Allen BOS 0.743
Marquis Daniels BOS 0.565

LeBron James CLE 1.243
Anderson Varejao CLE 0.862
Jamario Moon CLE 0.787
Mo Williams CLE 0.746
Daniel Gibson CLE 0.588
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 0.585
Anthony Parker CLE 0.494
J.J. Hickson CLE 0.434

REAL PLAYER RATINGS COMBINED SORT
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included

LeBron James CLE 1.243
Kobe Bryant LAL 1.093
Rajon Rondo BOS 1.046
Paul Pierce BOS 0.912
Andrew Bynum LAL 0.900
Kevin Garnett BOS 0.875
Lamar Odom LAL 0.865
Anderson Varejao CLE 0.862
Ron Artest LAL 0.838
Rasheed Wallace BOS 0.816
Jamario Moon CLE 0.787
Kendrick Perkins BOS 0.750
Mo Williams CLE 0.746
Ray Allen BOS 0.743
Derek Fisher LAL 0.660
Daniel Gibson CLE 0.588
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 0.585
Marquis Daniels BOS 0.565
Anthony Parker CLE 0.494
J.J. Hickson CLE 0.434

EVALUATION SCALE FOR REAL PLAYER RATINGS IN A SEASON
Perfect for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.910 0.999
A Star Player / A Well Above Normal Starter 0.830 0.909
Very Good Player / A Solid Starter 0.760 0.829
Major Role Player / Good Enough to Start 0.700 0.759
Good Role Player / Often a Good 6th Man 0.650 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player 0.590 0.649
Marginal Role Player 0.530 0.589
Poor Player 0.470 0.529
Very Poor Player 0.400 0.469
Extremely Poor Player and less 0.399

REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included

Kobe Bryant LAL 614.54
Ron Artest LAL 429.80
Lamar Odom LAL 424.09
Andrew Bynum LAL 421.91
Derek Fisher LAL 265.35

Rajon Rondo BOS 561.67
Paul Pierce BOS 521.46
Kevin Garnett BOS 424.22
Ray Allen BOS 415.30
Kendrick Perkins BOS 321.57
Rasheed Wallace BOS 281.58
Marquis Daniels BOS 178.45

LeBron James CLE 800.56
Mo Williams CLE 459.75
Anderson Varejao CLE 383.78
Anthony Parker CLE 252.55
Jamario Moon CLE 234.39
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 227.67
Daniel Gibson CLE 209.90
J.J. Hickson CLE 141.43

REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION COMBINED SORT
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included

LeBron James CLE 800.56
Kobe Bryant LAL 614.54
Rajon Rondo BOS 561.67
Paul Pierce BOS 521.46
Mo Williams CLE 459.75
Ron Artest LAL 429.80
Kevin Garnett BOS 424.22
Lamar Odom LAL 424.09
Andrew Bynum LAL 421.91
Ray Allen BOS 415.30
Anderson Varejao CLE 383.78
Kendrick Perkins BOS 321.57
Rasheed Wallace BOS 281.58
Derek Fisher LAL 265.35
Anthony Parker CLE 252.55
Jamario Moon CLE 234.39
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 227.67
Daniel Gibson CLE 209.90
Marquis Daniels BOS 178.45
J.J. Hickson CLE 141.43

========== OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS ==========

OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included

Kobe Bryant LAL 0.679
Andrew Bynum LAL 0.478
Ron Artest LAL 0.412
Lamar Odom LAL 0.390
Derek Fisher LAL 0.348

Rajon Rondo BOS 0.695
Paul Pierce BOS 0.626
Ray Allen BOS 0.453
Kevin Garnett BOS 0.449
Marquis Daniels BOS 0.384
Rasheed Wallace BOS 0.320
Kendrick Perkins BOS 0.302

LeBron James CLE 0.872
Mo Williams CLE 0.519
Jamario Moon CLE 0.352
Anderson Varejao CLE 0.304
Daniel Gibson CLE 0.279
Anthony Parker CLE 0.269
J.J. Hickson CLE 0.266
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 0.234

OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS COMBINED SORT
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included

LeBron James CLE 0.872
Rajon Rondo BOS 0.695
Kobe Bryant LAL 0.679
Paul Pierce BOS 0.626
Mo Williams CLE 0.519
Andrew Bynum LAL 0.478
Ray Allen BOS 0.453
Kevin Garnett BOS 0.449
Ron Artest LAL 0.412
Lamar Odom LAL 0.390
Marquis Daniels BOS 0.384
Jamario Moon CLE 0.352
Derek Fisher LAL 0.348
Rasheed Wallace BOS 0.320
Anderson Varejao CLE 0.304
Kendrick Perkins BOS 0.302
Daniel Gibson CLE 0.279
Anthony Parker CLE 0.269
J.J. Hickson CLE 0.266
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 0.234

DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included

Lamar Odom LAL 0.475
Ron Artest LAL 0.426
Andrew Bynum LAL 0.421
Kobe Bryant LAL 0.415
Derek Fisher LAL 0.313

Rasheed Wallace BOS 0.496
Kendrick Perkins BOS 0.448
Kevin Garnett BOS 0.425
Rajon Rondo BOS 0.351
Ray Allen BOS 0.289
Paul Pierce BOS 0.286
Marquis Daniels BOS 0.181

Anderson Varejao CLE 0.558
Jamario Moon CLE 0.435
LeBron James CLE 0.371
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 0.351
Daniel Gibson CLE 0.309
Mo Williams CLE 0.227
Anthony Parker CLE 0.225
J.J. Hickson CLE 0.168

DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS COMBINED SORT
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included

Anderson Varejao CLE 0.558
Rasheed Wallace BOS 0.496
Lamar Odom LAL 0.475
Kendrick Perkins BOS 0.448
Jamario Moon CLE 0.435
Ron Artest LAL 0.426
Kevin Garnett BOS 0.425
Andrew Bynum LAL 0.421
Kobe Bryant LAL 0.415
LeBron James CLE 0.371
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 0.351
Rajon Rondo BOS 0.351
Derek Fisher LAL 0.313
Daniel Gibson CLE 0.309
Ray Allen BOS 0.289
Paul Pierce BOS 0.286
Mo Williams CLE 0.227
Anthony Parker CLE 0.225
Marquis Daniels BOS 0.181
J.J. Hickson CLE 0.168

USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use Real Player Ratings. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.

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