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Friday, December 4, 2009
Break Time: K'naan Music and Laugh out Loud, George Karl!
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Thursday, December 3, 2009
On a High Quality Offense that can win a Ring, and Why Chauncey Billups is Partly Wasted by the Denver Nuggets
There is no denying that Chauncey Billups of the Denver Nuggets is one of the top point guards in pro basketball. Almost everyone knows he is much better than the starting point guard for the Los Angeles Lakers, Derek Fisher. For the Lakers, some point guard duties that ideally would be performed by a point guard are performed by superstar 2-guard Kobe Bryant instead. Unlike many guards including even Allen Iverson, Kobe Bryant can often successfully in effect play both guard positions at once for long stretches of time.
But in order to get the full advantage of any top NBA player, you have to set the framework to make sure that player does what he does best as much as possible. If necessary, you have to keep reminding that player to do as much of what he does best as possible.
The Denver Nuggets have from time to time failed to do this with many key players. This Report will focus on one important Nugget: point guard Chauncey Billups.
There is an extremely strong correlation between playoff and Championship wins and assists, but especially assists by the designated point guards and, in some cases, by 2-guards who, either because they have point guard skills or because they are superstars, (like Kobe Bryant and Dwyane Wade) make a lot of high quality assists themselves. A high quality assist is when a player who is not likely to score on a play finds a player who is in one of his favorite situations for scoring and/or a player who is undefended, whereupon that player makes the score. An ordinary assist is any assist where the player making the assist might just as well have scored himself, or where the player who actually scored was not in a prime situation to score, but was able to score anyway.
The Quest for the Ring has developed offensive quality performance measures that get at the crucial subject of quality of offense, such as “playmaking identity”. You will see these measures in Real Game Reports, which as of this writing have been published for only a very small number of games. If you visit here regularly in the future, you will get to know “playmaking identity” and related concepts very well.
There are some coaches, with George Karl the most notable among them, who don’t accept (or maybe don’t understand) the importance of the difference between quality and ordinary assists, and who don’t subscribe to the idea that point guards are crucial to getting quality assists, to keeping the passing game going, and to occasionally running plays developed in practice where scorers get the ball in situations where it is most likely they can score. Although Karl and coaches in his mold are not against assists per se, they seemingly believe that all assists are the very same value. Moreover, Karl and coaches of his type believe that every player on the court is about equally responsible for keeping the passing game going.
Here is why the way Karl and anyone who thinks like him are wrong:
--More assists are generally better than fewer assists, but quality assists are far more valuable than ordinary assists for winning NBA playoff games.
-- The passing game will not always be where you need it to be to win playoff games unless the point guard has primary responsibility for maintaining it. To one degree or another, at some time or another, non-point guard players will eventually fall into the trap of attempting to get too many isolation scores.
--When a player other than a point guard or a superstar 2-guard makes an assist, it is not necessarily a positive thing, all things considered. For one thing, that player might have scored himself. If that player starts getting hooked on “looking for the open man” at the expense of looking to see if he can score himself, then that player’s overall effectiveness will be lower, not higher. Generally, if you are not a point guard, you look for the open man if and only if you think you are not in a good situation to score on the play. You don’t want to be often passing, regardless of how many assists you might rack up, in situations where you yourself have a good chance of making the score yourself.
--If the point guard is not primarily responsible for quality assists and keeping the passing game going, he will probably start taking unwise shots, so as to avoid becoming irrelevant in the offense. Other than superstar point guards who are great scorers, point guards should, even more so than other players, avoid impulsive “reach” type shooting. But under Karl’s approach, point guards will tend to take more reach shots than many of the other players.
CHAUNCEY BILLUPS ASSISTS PER 36 MINUTES
1997-98 5.1
1998-99 4.2
1999-00 4.6
2000-01 5.2
2001-02 6.9
2002-03 4.4
2003-04 5.8
2004-05 5.8
2005-06 8.6
2006-07 7.1
2007-08 7.6
2008-09 6.5
2009-10 6.7
CAREER: 6.3
Ok, now notice that in 2005-06, Billups made 8.6 assists per 36 minutes, which is almost 30% more assists than he is making for the Nuggets now. Billups was on the Pistons that year, and they finished 64-18 in the regular season. After beating the Milwaukee Bucks 4-1 in the first round, and the Cleveland Cavaliers 4-3 in the semifinals, Billups and the Pistons lost the East final series 4-2 to the Miami Heat.
The previous year, 2004-05, Billups made only 5.8 assists per 36 minutes, but the results were about the same. That year, the Pistons beat the Philadelphia 76’ers 4-1 in round one, then they beat the Indiana Pacers 4-2 in the semifinals, and then they beat the Miami Heat 4-3 in the East Final. But the Pistons lost to Greg Popovich and the San Antonio Spurs 4-3 in the 2005 Championship.
The previous year, 2003-04, Billups made the same assist rate as in 2004-05, 5.8 per 36 minutes. That year, the Pistons beat the Milwaukee Bucks 4-1 in round one, then they beat the New Jersey Nets 4-3 in round two, and then they beat the Indiana Pacers 4-2 in the East Final. In the 2004 NBA Championship, the Pistons easily defeated the Los Angeles Lakers 4-1.
So looking at all of that, you might say “Got you: Billups made fewer assists per minute when he won the Championship in 2004 than he is making for the Nuggets so far this year (2010). So there is nothing wrong with what Billups is doing for the Nuggets this year.
Well, then we have to dig a little deeper, don’t we, because Quest can’t be wrong, laugh out loud.
True, Chauncey Billups is making slightly more assists this year than when he won the Championship. But the 2004 Pistons were a defensive oriented team and were, like the 2008 Celtics, relying more on defense to win their rings than they were on offense. In fact, that Pistons team was overwhelmingly relying on defense to win, more so than the 2008 Celtics, and they were hardly relying on offense at all! The offense was practically an afterthought, although it was run on rock solid principles and was not merely an offshoot of the defense and a sort of gimmick type offense as the 2008-09 Nuggets offense was.
By contrast, the Nuggets both in 2008-09 and even more so this year are relying as much on volume scoring as on defense. The bottom line is that the 2009 and 2010 Nuggets are much more dependent on the quantity and quality of their offense than were the 2003 Pistons, yet Chauncey Billups is making only slightly more assists per 36 minutes for the Nuggets than he did for the Pistons when he and the Pistons won the Ring. He needs to be making more assists than he is if the Nuggets want to contest for a Ring.
Chauncey Billups made 8.6 assists per 36 minutes in 2005-06, which is the most of any year. While it might possibly be a stretch to say that he should be making that many for the Nuggets, he should at a rock bottom minimum making 7.5 per 36 minutes. Billups is making at least one fewer assist per 36 minutes (and per game) and probably two fewer per game than he should be making if the Nuggets are serious about winning a Championship. The Nuggets can not win an NBA Championship with Chauncey Billups making only slightly more assists than he made for the defensively oriented 2003 Pistons.
DIGGING EVEN DEEPER
In 2003-04, there were only five teams out of 28 other teams who scored fewer points per game than did the Pistons; they scored only 90.4 points per game that year. Flash forward to 2008-09, and we see that the Nuggets scored 104.3 points per game. So from there you can see the problem in stark detail:
In 2003-04, Billups wins a Ring while making 5.8 assists per 36 minutes for a team that scored 90.4 points per game. In 2008-09, Billups made 6.5 assists per 36 minutes for a team that scored 104.3 points per game. So in 2003-04, Billups’ assists per time versus team points per game ratio was .064, whereas in 2008-09 it was .062, slightly less. So far in 2009-10, that ratio for Billups is .061. Relative to points being scored, Billups is doing slightly less for the Nuggets than he did for the Pistons. Despite the fact that Denver is a much more talented offensive team than were the 2003 Pistons, Billups is not making any more assists, relative to points, for the highly skilled Nuggets than he did for the much less skilled Pistons. In a word this is a waste of both Billups and of the high skill of the Nuggets finishers, players such as Nene, Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith, and even the rookie Ty Lawson.
We’ve proved what we wanted to prove, but what the heck, let’s dig even deeper….
DIGGING DEEPER STILL: LOOKING AT ALL THE GUARDS
Now let’s have a look at all the guards on both teams:
2003-04 CHAMPION DETROIT PISTONS ASSISTS PER 36 MINS OF GUARDS
Guards who played less than 300 minutes during the entire season are not relevant and are not included
Chauncey Billups 5.8 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 446 assists.
Mike James 6.7 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 95 assists
Chucky Atkins 4.6 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 95 assists
Lindsey Hunter 4.6 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 85 assists
Bob Sura 4.5 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 89 assists
Richard Hamilton 4.0 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 310 assists
TOTAL 2003 PISTONS ASSISTS 1,702
2008-09 DENVER NUGGETS ASSISTS PER 36 MINS OF GUARDS
Guards who played less than 300 minutes during the entire season are not relevant and are not included
Chauncey Billups 6.5 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 491 assists
Anthony Carter 7.3 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 364 assists
JR Smith 3.6 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 227 assists
Dahntay Jones 2.0 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 78 assists
TOTAL 2009 NUGGETS ASSISTS 1,820
First, note that the 2003 Pistons had more playmaking guards than did the 2009 Nuggets, six versus four. And one of the Nuggets’ guards, Jones, made only 2.0 assists per 36 minutes. That big discrepancy is yet another fact that strongly suggests that Billups should have made even more assists than he did in 2008-09.
Since the Pistons were not relying on offense very much to win a Ring, the total number of assists was not as important as it is for any team that is relying on offense to win a Ring. Sure enough, as you will shortly see, the 2003 Pistons made substantially fewer assists than did the 2009 Nuggets.
As you continue in this section, keep in mind that quality assists are more valuable than ordinary assists.
As a percentage of all team assists made, Billups made 26.2% of the 2003 Pistons guards’ assists, and 27.0% of the 2009 Nuggets guards’ assists. But since the 2009 Nuggets had fewer guards making assists and especially fewer guards making assists at a good rate, Billups should have made a much greater percentage than 27% of the 2009 Nuggets assists. In other words, too many of the Nuggets assists were left to guards other than Billups and to non-guard players.
Again, the point is that Billups was wasted to some extent in 2008-09 and is again being wasted this year so far, especially considering how loaded up with scoring talent the Nuggets are. True, the regular season offense was good last year and is excellent so far this year despite this problem, but remember that this is not some ordinary basketball site.
This is the Quest for the Ring, where we focus on winning playoff games. And you do lose key playoff games and series if your point guard is not being used more strategically than the Nuggets are using Billups. If you want to win a Ring, among some other duties, your point guard must be primarily responsible for making quality assists, for playmaking identity, for keeping the passing game going, and for making sure that an occasional practiced play is run.
ASSISTS BY ALL GUARDS COMBINED
The number of assists made by all guards for the 2009 Nuggets was 1,160, which was 63.7% of the team total. Meanwhile, the number of assists made by all guards for the 2003 Pistons was 1,120, which was 65.8 percent of the team total. So Pistons guards made substantially more assists than did the Nuggets guards.
Do not let the apparently small difference fool you. This means that one out of every 50 assists that was made by a Pistons guard was made by a Nuggets forward or center, and this is a small but significant difference. This kind of thing can mean a different total number of assists and, more importantly, a different number of the quality assists that win you Championships.
This shows you that the 2009 Nuggets were relying more on forwards and centers to make assists than were the Championship-winning 2003 Pistons. Yet again, the Nuggets were a much higher scoring team than were the 2003 Pistons, so this should have been the other way around: the Nuggets’ guards should have made a greater percentage of all assists than the Pistons’ guards did.
We have now shown and proved in numerous ways the following conclusion. It is a bad idea to rely less on your guards and especially your point guards for assists and to instead therefore rely more on your forwards and centers for assists. George Karl and coaches who think that key responsibilities that have to be assigned to point guards or superstar 2-guards should be distributed relatively evenly throughout the team (or at least much more evenly than on many teams traditionally) are dead wrong. It will be next to impossible for any team following Karl’s approach to win a Championship.
But in order to get the full advantage of any top NBA player, you have to set the framework to make sure that player does what he does best as much as possible. If necessary, you have to keep reminding that player to do as much of what he does best as possible.
The Denver Nuggets have from time to time failed to do this with many key players. This Report will focus on one important Nugget: point guard Chauncey Billups.
There is an extremely strong correlation between playoff and Championship wins and assists, but especially assists by the designated point guards and, in some cases, by 2-guards who, either because they have point guard skills or because they are superstars, (like Kobe Bryant and Dwyane Wade) make a lot of high quality assists themselves. A high quality assist is when a player who is not likely to score on a play finds a player who is in one of his favorite situations for scoring and/or a player who is undefended, whereupon that player makes the score. An ordinary assist is any assist where the player making the assist might just as well have scored himself, or where the player who actually scored was not in a prime situation to score, but was able to score anyway.
The Quest for the Ring has developed offensive quality performance measures that get at the crucial subject of quality of offense, such as “playmaking identity”. You will see these measures in Real Game Reports, which as of this writing have been published for only a very small number of games. If you visit here regularly in the future, you will get to know “playmaking identity” and related concepts very well.
There are some coaches, with George Karl the most notable among them, who don’t accept (or maybe don’t understand) the importance of the difference between quality and ordinary assists, and who don’t subscribe to the idea that point guards are crucial to getting quality assists, to keeping the passing game going, and to occasionally running plays developed in practice where scorers get the ball in situations where it is most likely they can score. Although Karl and coaches in his mold are not against assists per se, they seemingly believe that all assists are the very same value. Moreover, Karl and coaches of his type believe that every player on the court is about equally responsible for keeping the passing game going.
Here is why the way Karl and anyone who thinks like him are wrong:
--More assists are generally better than fewer assists, but quality assists are far more valuable than ordinary assists for winning NBA playoff games.
-- The passing game will not always be where you need it to be to win playoff games unless the point guard has primary responsibility for maintaining it. To one degree or another, at some time or another, non-point guard players will eventually fall into the trap of attempting to get too many isolation scores.
--When a player other than a point guard or a superstar 2-guard makes an assist, it is not necessarily a positive thing, all things considered. For one thing, that player might have scored himself. If that player starts getting hooked on “looking for the open man” at the expense of looking to see if he can score himself, then that player’s overall effectiveness will be lower, not higher. Generally, if you are not a point guard, you look for the open man if and only if you think you are not in a good situation to score on the play. You don’t want to be often passing, regardless of how many assists you might rack up, in situations where you yourself have a good chance of making the score yourself.
--If the point guard is not primarily responsible for quality assists and keeping the passing game going, he will probably start taking unwise shots, so as to avoid becoming irrelevant in the offense. Other than superstar point guards who are great scorers, point guards should, even more so than other players, avoid impulsive “reach” type shooting. But under Karl’s approach, point guards will tend to take more reach shots than many of the other players.
CHAUNCEY BILLUPS ASSISTS PER 36 MINUTES
1997-98 5.1
1998-99 4.2
1999-00 4.6
2000-01 5.2
2001-02 6.9
2002-03 4.4
2003-04 5.8
2004-05 5.8
2005-06 8.6
2006-07 7.1
2007-08 7.6
2008-09 6.5
2009-10 6.7
CAREER: 6.3
Ok, now notice that in 2005-06, Billups made 8.6 assists per 36 minutes, which is almost 30% more assists than he is making for the Nuggets now. Billups was on the Pistons that year, and they finished 64-18 in the regular season. After beating the Milwaukee Bucks 4-1 in the first round, and the Cleveland Cavaliers 4-3 in the semifinals, Billups and the Pistons lost the East final series 4-2 to the Miami Heat.
The previous year, 2004-05, Billups made only 5.8 assists per 36 minutes, but the results were about the same. That year, the Pistons beat the Philadelphia 76’ers 4-1 in round one, then they beat the Indiana Pacers 4-2 in the semifinals, and then they beat the Miami Heat 4-3 in the East Final. But the Pistons lost to Greg Popovich and the San Antonio Spurs 4-3 in the 2005 Championship.
The previous year, 2003-04, Billups made the same assist rate as in 2004-05, 5.8 per 36 minutes. That year, the Pistons beat the Milwaukee Bucks 4-1 in round one, then they beat the New Jersey Nets 4-3 in round two, and then they beat the Indiana Pacers 4-2 in the East Final. In the 2004 NBA Championship, the Pistons easily defeated the Los Angeles Lakers 4-1.
So looking at all of that, you might say “Got you: Billups made fewer assists per minute when he won the Championship in 2004 than he is making for the Nuggets so far this year (2010). So there is nothing wrong with what Billups is doing for the Nuggets this year.
Well, then we have to dig a little deeper, don’t we, because Quest can’t be wrong, laugh out loud.
True, Chauncey Billups is making slightly more assists this year than when he won the Championship. But the 2004 Pistons were a defensive oriented team and were, like the 2008 Celtics, relying more on defense to win their rings than they were on offense. In fact, that Pistons team was overwhelmingly relying on defense to win, more so than the 2008 Celtics, and they were hardly relying on offense at all! The offense was practically an afterthought, although it was run on rock solid principles and was not merely an offshoot of the defense and a sort of gimmick type offense as the 2008-09 Nuggets offense was.
By contrast, the Nuggets both in 2008-09 and even more so this year are relying as much on volume scoring as on defense. The bottom line is that the 2009 and 2010 Nuggets are much more dependent on the quantity and quality of their offense than were the 2003 Pistons, yet Chauncey Billups is making only slightly more assists per 36 minutes for the Nuggets than he did for the Pistons when he and the Pistons won the Ring. He needs to be making more assists than he is if the Nuggets want to contest for a Ring.
Chauncey Billups made 8.6 assists per 36 minutes in 2005-06, which is the most of any year. While it might possibly be a stretch to say that he should be making that many for the Nuggets, he should at a rock bottom minimum making 7.5 per 36 minutes. Billups is making at least one fewer assist per 36 minutes (and per game) and probably two fewer per game than he should be making if the Nuggets are serious about winning a Championship. The Nuggets can not win an NBA Championship with Chauncey Billups making only slightly more assists than he made for the defensively oriented 2003 Pistons.
DIGGING EVEN DEEPER
In 2003-04, there were only five teams out of 28 other teams who scored fewer points per game than did the Pistons; they scored only 90.4 points per game that year. Flash forward to 2008-09, and we see that the Nuggets scored 104.3 points per game. So from there you can see the problem in stark detail:
In 2003-04, Billups wins a Ring while making 5.8 assists per 36 minutes for a team that scored 90.4 points per game. In 2008-09, Billups made 6.5 assists per 36 minutes for a team that scored 104.3 points per game. So in 2003-04, Billups’ assists per time versus team points per game ratio was .064, whereas in 2008-09 it was .062, slightly less. So far in 2009-10, that ratio for Billups is .061. Relative to points being scored, Billups is doing slightly less for the Nuggets than he did for the Pistons. Despite the fact that Denver is a much more talented offensive team than were the 2003 Pistons, Billups is not making any more assists, relative to points, for the highly skilled Nuggets than he did for the much less skilled Pistons. In a word this is a waste of both Billups and of the high skill of the Nuggets finishers, players such as Nene, Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith, and even the rookie Ty Lawson.
We’ve proved what we wanted to prove, but what the heck, let’s dig even deeper….
DIGGING DEEPER STILL: LOOKING AT ALL THE GUARDS
Now let’s have a look at all the guards on both teams:
2003-04 CHAMPION DETROIT PISTONS ASSISTS PER 36 MINS OF GUARDS
Guards who played less than 300 minutes during the entire season are not relevant and are not included
Chauncey Billups 5.8 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 446 assists.
Mike James 6.7 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 95 assists
Chucky Atkins 4.6 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 95 assists
Lindsey Hunter 4.6 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 85 assists
Bob Sura 4.5 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 89 assists
Richard Hamilton 4.0 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 310 assists
TOTAL 2003 PISTONS ASSISTS 1,702
2008-09 DENVER NUGGETS ASSISTS PER 36 MINS OF GUARDS
Guards who played less than 300 minutes during the entire season are not relevant and are not included
Chauncey Billups 6.5 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 491 assists
Anthony Carter 7.3 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 364 assists
JR Smith 3.6 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 227 assists
Dahntay Jones 2.0 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 78 assists
TOTAL 2009 NUGGETS ASSISTS 1,820
First, note that the 2003 Pistons had more playmaking guards than did the 2009 Nuggets, six versus four. And one of the Nuggets’ guards, Jones, made only 2.0 assists per 36 minutes. That big discrepancy is yet another fact that strongly suggests that Billups should have made even more assists than he did in 2008-09.
Since the Pistons were not relying on offense very much to win a Ring, the total number of assists was not as important as it is for any team that is relying on offense to win a Ring. Sure enough, as you will shortly see, the 2003 Pistons made substantially fewer assists than did the 2009 Nuggets.
As you continue in this section, keep in mind that quality assists are more valuable than ordinary assists.
As a percentage of all team assists made, Billups made 26.2% of the 2003 Pistons guards’ assists, and 27.0% of the 2009 Nuggets guards’ assists. But since the 2009 Nuggets had fewer guards making assists and especially fewer guards making assists at a good rate, Billups should have made a much greater percentage than 27% of the 2009 Nuggets assists. In other words, too many of the Nuggets assists were left to guards other than Billups and to non-guard players.
Again, the point is that Billups was wasted to some extent in 2008-09 and is again being wasted this year so far, especially considering how loaded up with scoring talent the Nuggets are. True, the regular season offense was good last year and is excellent so far this year despite this problem, but remember that this is not some ordinary basketball site.
This is the Quest for the Ring, where we focus on winning playoff games. And you do lose key playoff games and series if your point guard is not being used more strategically than the Nuggets are using Billups. If you want to win a Ring, among some other duties, your point guard must be primarily responsible for making quality assists, for playmaking identity, for keeping the passing game going, and for making sure that an occasional practiced play is run.
ASSISTS BY ALL GUARDS COMBINED
The number of assists made by all guards for the 2009 Nuggets was 1,160, which was 63.7% of the team total. Meanwhile, the number of assists made by all guards for the 2003 Pistons was 1,120, which was 65.8 percent of the team total. So Pistons guards made substantially more assists than did the Nuggets guards.
Do not let the apparently small difference fool you. This means that one out of every 50 assists that was made by a Pistons guard was made by a Nuggets forward or center, and this is a small but significant difference. This kind of thing can mean a different total number of assists and, more importantly, a different number of the quality assists that win you Championships.
This shows you that the 2009 Nuggets were relying more on forwards and centers to make assists than were the Championship-winning 2003 Pistons. Yet again, the Nuggets were a much higher scoring team than were the 2003 Pistons, so this should have been the other way around: the Nuggets’ guards should have made a greater percentage of all assists than the Pistons’ guards did.
We have now shown and proved in numerous ways the following conclusion. It is a bad idea to rely less on your guards and especially your point guards for assists and to instead therefore rely more on your forwards and centers for assists. George Karl and coaches who think that key responsibilities that have to be assigned to point guards or superstar 2-guards should be distributed relatively evenly throughout the team (or at least much more evenly than on many teams traditionally) are dead wrong. It will be next to impossible for any team following Karl’s approach to win a Championship.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
2009-10 Real Coach Ratings: Phil Jackson Ahead of George Karl by a Factor of About 6 to 1
The ideal time for the annual Real Coach Ratings to come out is just before the season starts, in October. We missed that schedule, but the first of December is really not that late, and it is certainly better than never.
One of the coaches in the Report, Byron Scott, was fired by the New Orleans Hornets during November, but his Rating is included. The new Hornets Coach is Jeff Bower, who has no experience as a head coach in the NBA. Bower's rating would be 200 by rule.
As always, there has been some tweaking since the last version of this Report. Plus, there is a new factor: points awarded for the number of Championship series appearances: 12 points for each. This has the effect of increasing the playoff game experience award for a Coach for Championship games from three to approximately five.
We are showing you the entire spreadsheet so that you can see for yourself not only the ratings but also the raw data.
The User Guide for Real Coach Ratings is being updated to reflect the latest coach rating technology. That update should be completed by Friday, December 4 and probably a day or two earlier than that. When the update is done, this paragraph will link to the Guide.
PHIL JACKSON VERSUS GEORGE KARL
You can see that the best rating system we can produce shows that Los Angeles Lakers Coach Phil Jackson has about six times the rating that Denver Nuggets Coach George Karl has.
You can interpret this in either of two ways. The first way to look at this is similar to the way that the Real Team Ratings are interpreted: It is about six times more likely that Phil Jackson is a better coach and will defeat George Karl in a playoff series than the other way around, assuming the raw talent and injury situations of their teams are about the same.
The other way to interpret this is to think of the differential between the two ratings as an amount which translates into an actual real life coaching difference. Then you plug that difference in with the other differences that determine who wins a playoff series. If the coaching difference is big enough, it could result in the lessor skilled team winning the series.
Even though we are unable at this time to properly estimate the actual size of the coaching factor in a playoff series, we know it is NOT negligible, trivial, or even very small. Coaching may be a small rather than a "middle-sized" factor (we don't have exact knowledge of how big a factor it is yet) but if the players between the two teams are evenly matched, then even a small difference in the coaching could determine the series.
In any event, the difference between Phil Jackson and George Karl is so large that George Karl would have to have a much better team to be able to defeat Phil Jackson in a playoff series.
The same applies to Phil Jackson versus Boston Celtics Coach Doc Rivers. We think right now that the 2010 Championship is about a toss-up between the Celtics and the Lakers. But were it not for the Lakers' coaching advantage over the Celtics, the Celtics would have to be favored to win the Ring in 2010 by maybe 4 games to 2, since the Celtics are clearly better than the Lakers in terms of raw skill and raw potential.
PROBABLE UPSIDE DISTORTIONS
There is one quasi-flaw in this system, and we don't have any way to correct it yet; there may not be a way. Broadly speaking, the problem originates in the big discrepancy in the experience between long-term veteran coaches and much younger coaches. To some extent this makes comparing NBA coaches like trying to compare apples and oranges rather than like trying to compare various apples.
More specifically, the worst of the long-term veteran coaches will tend to have ratings that are distorted upwards to one extent or another. If a Coach has received some "lucky breaks" by not being fired after bad losing seasons, and/or after bad losses in the playoffs, and he has over the years now accumulated 1,000 or more regular season games and 100 or more playoff games, his rating will likely be in effect distorted on the high side relative to the other coaches. This is because the long-time veteran Coach, who could have been fired a long time ago but was not fired, will max out on the experience points, and he will also have a few winning seasons to go with the losing seasons. The sum of the maximum experience points (which is 680 for regular season experience plus three times the number of playoff games) plus any positive net from winning seasons will tend to more than offset all the losses from the year(s) he might have been fired, despite the heavy negatives that losses carry.
Another way of thinking about this issue is that assuming a long-term veteran Coach has a too high rating due to the above, keep in mind that Coach would not even be in the ratings had he actually been fired. Coaching a professional sports team is about the worst job in existence for job security, since the vast majority of coaches are involuntarily fired.
Yet another way of focusing on this problem is realizing that pro basketball coaches are fired or not fired based on different criteria.
We can not simply remove experience from the set of factors, since in every single career there is, the more experience you have, the better you tend to be. Moreover, even if we did reduce or remove the experience factor, the same problem would still be there in the case of coaches who probably should have been fired, but are not and then end up fortunately coaching very skilled teams in subsequent years, thus piling up wins with those teams.
In other words, we have no choice but to proceed as if all coaches face the same criteria as to whether they are fired or not, even though we know that some coaches are treated much more leniently than others
One other thing to keep in mind about long-term veteran coaches (the ones with more than 1,000 regular season games coached) is that once such a Coach gets older than 60, 65, and then maybe even 70 years old, that Coach's abilities will probably be less than they were when he were younger. Whereas almost all coaches with little experience are under the age of 55.
For example, Utah Jazz Coach Jerry Sloan is 68 years old next March 28, so it is possible that he is a little too old now for maximum effectiveness.
The bottom line is that there will be a small number of older, veteran coaches whose ratings are misleading on the high side. Unfortunately, we are unable to correct for this or to properly estimate the amount of the unavoidable distortion at this time.
So we advise you when looking at the ratings to make sure you give the benefit of the doubt to younger coaches who seem to have good potential. The coaches whose ratings are most likely distorted upwards would be, at the moment, in order of the most likely amount of distortion, George Karl, Don Nelson, and Larry Brown. It is plausible, for example, that young Miami Heat Coach Erik Spoelstra is as good or better a Coach right now as is Don Nelson.
PROBABLE DOWNSIDE DISTORTIONS
The flip side of the above distortion is also going to be a problem sometimes. If you have a younger coach who has just started out, and he has a bad team to start with, then his rating will be much lower than it will be in some years if he avoids getting fired and gets much better teams to work with in subsequent years.
However, it is possible that in most cases the worst teams get only the medium and poor coaches, that in other words the really good coaches never have to start out coaching a bad team, so that any downside distortions are small and mostly moot points.
Generally speaking, we are still working on a way to make the comparisons between long-time veterans and much younger, newer coaches more valid than they are in the current system. We hope of course to make a breakthrough or two for next October's Report.
Even if you distrust the ratings themselves, you can evaluate the raw data yourself in the following spreadsheet.
COACH SUB RATINGS
Two of the three sub ratings from last year are discontinued. Readers can scan the raw data and get at least as much information as they could from the discontinued sub ratings. The only sub rating we are still publishing is the playoffs sub rating. (Who would have thought we'd key in on that one, laugh out loud.)
George Karl is no longer at the bottom of the playoffs sub rating; he is ahead of Don Nelson thanks to Karl's Nuggets' 10-6 2009 playoffs campaign. Golden State Warriors Coach Don Nelson is now dead last in the playoffs sub ratings. However, the deep hole that Karl dug in earlier years was so deep that the Nuggets' miraculous 2009 playoffs campaign was not enough to overall lift him very much in the playoffs sub rating. He is still showing up as a very poor playoffs coach, though Karl's rating is not as extremely poor as it was a year ago. Karl has now won 78 playoff games and lost 93 of them. Prior to the 2009 playoffs, Karl had won just 68 playoff games and lost 87.
NEVER EVER HIRE A COACH WITH A POOR PLAYOFFS RECORD
The Nuggets hired Karl despite the fact that he had a poor playoffs rating. When the Nuggets hired Karl, his playoffs record was 65-71. While coaching the Nuggets, Karl's playoffs record is 13-22. Karl's playoff record has gotten worse while he has coached the Nuggets, not better (despite 2009).
The Nuggets were wrong to hire Karl, and they are also wrong not to fire him unless he wins the NBA Championship within the next year or two. Which by the way, the Nuggets were in 2008, possibly were in 2009, and are again for 2010 talented enough to win a Championship if the coaching was top notch. Coaches with losing playoff records are fired by all truly serious NBA franchises these days. Karl had a losing playoffs record when he was hired and it has only gotten worse since.
Why in hell did the Nuggets hire Karl? I can only speculate. The Nuggets either knew in advance they would never win the Quest with Karl and hired him anyway, or they figured incorrectly that Karl's playoff record was trumped by better aspects of Karl's record, or they decided that Karl's playoff record could be excused for rational reasons.
Whatever the Nuggets' management thought, they thought wrong. If you are a team owner or manager, you can not afford to take any risk or to make any benign assumptions or weak rationalizations when you choose a head coach. If a coach has a poor playoffs record, you have no choice but to not hire that coach if you are serious about winning the Quest. There are going to be coaches who are good enough to do well in the regular season, but not good enough to prevail in the playoffs. You should not be the goober who hires one of them, obviously. Let some other franchise/team get stuck with that type of coach.
I have to be blunt here to make sure I am understood. You should never, ever do what the Nuggets did if you are serious about winning the Quest. Your coach should have a good record for both regular season and playoffs. The playoff record is even more important than the regular season record.
Finally, before leaving this crucial subject, I am going to state that given the choice between on the one hand a younger coach who is considered to be a good or great up and coming coach, but who has no NBA playoff record at all, and not much of a regular season one, and on the other hand a long-term veteran coach who has a decent regular season record but a poor, losing playoffs record, you are better off choosing the young coach with no playoff record.
In point blank and clear summary, a coach with a bad playoffs record is one of the worst things you can do if you want to win the Quest.
Mechanically, the playoff sub rating is simply the rating you get when you factor in only the four playoffs-related factors.
One of the coaches in the Report, Byron Scott, was fired by the New Orleans Hornets during November, but his Rating is included. The new Hornets Coach is Jeff Bower, who has no experience as a head coach in the NBA. Bower's rating would be 200 by rule.
As always, there has been some tweaking since the last version of this Report. Plus, there is a new factor: points awarded for the number of Championship series appearances: 12 points for each. This has the effect of increasing the playoff game experience award for a Coach for Championship games from three to approximately five.
We are showing you the entire spreadsheet so that you can see for yourself not only the ratings but also the raw data.
The User Guide for Real Coach Ratings is being updated to reflect the latest coach rating technology. That update should be completed by Friday, December 4 and probably a day or two earlier than that. When the update is done, this paragraph will link to the Guide.
PHIL JACKSON VERSUS GEORGE KARL
You can see that the best rating system we can produce shows that Los Angeles Lakers Coach Phil Jackson has about six times the rating that Denver Nuggets Coach George Karl has.
You can interpret this in either of two ways. The first way to look at this is similar to the way that the Real Team Ratings are interpreted: It is about six times more likely that Phil Jackson is a better coach and will defeat George Karl in a playoff series than the other way around, assuming the raw talent and injury situations of their teams are about the same.
The other way to interpret this is to think of the differential between the two ratings as an amount which translates into an actual real life coaching difference. Then you plug that difference in with the other differences that determine who wins a playoff series. If the coaching difference is big enough, it could result in the lessor skilled team winning the series.
Even though we are unable at this time to properly estimate the actual size of the coaching factor in a playoff series, we know it is NOT negligible, trivial, or even very small. Coaching may be a small rather than a "middle-sized" factor (we don't have exact knowledge of how big a factor it is yet) but if the players between the two teams are evenly matched, then even a small difference in the coaching could determine the series.
In any event, the difference between Phil Jackson and George Karl is so large that George Karl would have to have a much better team to be able to defeat Phil Jackson in a playoff series.
The same applies to Phil Jackson versus Boston Celtics Coach Doc Rivers. We think right now that the 2010 Championship is about a toss-up between the Celtics and the Lakers. But were it not for the Lakers' coaching advantage over the Celtics, the Celtics would have to be favored to win the Ring in 2010 by maybe 4 games to 2, since the Celtics are clearly better than the Lakers in terms of raw skill and raw potential.
PROBABLE UPSIDE DISTORTIONS
There is one quasi-flaw in this system, and we don't have any way to correct it yet; there may not be a way. Broadly speaking, the problem originates in the big discrepancy in the experience between long-term veteran coaches and much younger coaches. To some extent this makes comparing NBA coaches like trying to compare apples and oranges rather than like trying to compare various apples.
More specifically, the worst of the long-term veteran coaches will tend to have ratings that are distorted upwards to one extent or another. If a Coach has received some "lucky breaks" by not being fired after bad losing seasons, and/or after bad losses in the playoffs, and he has over the years now accumulated 1,000 or more regular season games and 100 or more playoff games, his rating will likely be in effect distorted on the high side relative to the other coaches. This is because the long-time veteran Coach, who could have been fired a long time ago but was not fired, will max out on the experience points, and he will also have a few winning seasons to go with the losing seasons. The sum of the maximum experience points (which is 680 for regular season experience plus three times the number of playoff games) plus any positive net from winning seasons will tend to more than offset all the losses from the year(s) he might have been fired, despite the heavy negatives that losses carry.
Another way of thinking about this issue is that assuming a long-term veteran Coach has a too high rating due to the above, keep in mind that Coach would not even be in the ratings had he actually been fired. Coaching a professional sports team is about the worst job in existence for job security, since the vast majority of coaches are involuntarily fired.
Yet another way of focusing on this problem is realizing that pro basketball coaches are fired or not fired based on different criteria.
We can not simply remove experience from the set of factors, since in every single career there is, the more experience you have, the better you tend to be. Moreover, even if we did reduce or remove the experience factor, the same problem would still be there in the case of coaches who probably should have been fired, but are not and then end up fortunately coaching very skilled teams in subsequent years, thus piling up wins with those teams.
In other words, we have no choice but to proceed as if all coaches face the same criteria as to whether they are fired or not, even though we know that some coaches are treated much more leniently than others
One other thing to keep in mind about long-term veteran coaches (the ones with more than 1,000 regular season games coached) is that once such a Coach gets older than 60, 65, and then maybe even 70 years old, that Coach's abilities will probably be less than they were when he were younger. Whereas almost all coaches with little experience are under the age of 55.
For example, Utah Jazz Coach Jerry Sloan is 68 years old next March 28, so it is possible that he is a little too old now for maximum effectiveness.
The bottom line is that there will be a small number of older, veteran coaches whose ratings are misleading on the high side. Unfortunately, we are unable to correct for this or to properly estimate the amount of the unavoidable distortion at this time.
So we advise you when looking at the ratings to make sure you give the benefit of the doubt to younger coaches who seem to have good potential. The coaches whose ratings are most likely distorted upwards would be, at the moment, in order of the most likely amount of distortion, George Karl, Don Nelson, and Larry Brown. It is plausible, for example, that young Miami Heat Coach Erik Spoelstra is as good or better a Coach right now as is Don Nelson.
PROBABLE DOWNSIDE DISTORTIONS
The flip side of the above distortion is also going to be a problem sometimes. If you have a younger coach who has just started out, and he has a bad team to start with, then his rating will be much lower than it will be in some years if he avoids getting fired and gets much better teams to work with in subsequent years.
However, it is possible that in most cases the worst teams get only the medium and poor coaches, that in other words the really good coaches never have to start out coaching a bad team, so that any downside distortions are small and mostly moot points.
Generally speaking, we are still working on a way to make the comparisons between long-time veterans and much younger, newer coaches more valid than they are in the current system. We hope of course to make a breakthrough or two for next October's Report.
Even if you distrust the ratings themselves, you can evaluate the raw data yourself in the following spreadsheet.
COACH SUB RATINGS
Two of the three sub ratings from last year are discontinued. Readers can scan the raw data and get at least as much information as they could from the discontinued sub ratings. The only sub rating we are still publishing is the playoffs sub rating. (Who would have thought we'd key in on that one, laugh out loud.)
George Karl is no longer at the bottom of the playoffs sub rating; he is ahead of Don Nelson thanks to Karl's Nuggets' 10-6 2009 playoffs campaign. Golden State Warriors Coach Don Nelson is now dead last in the playoffs sub ratings. However, the deep hole that Karl dug in earlier years was so deep that the Nuggets' miraculous 2009 playoffs campaign was not enough to overall lift him very much in the playoffs sub rating. He is still showing up as a very poor playoffs coach, though Karl's rating is not as extremely poor as it was a year ago. Karl has now won 78 playoff games and lost 93 of them. Prior to the 2009 playoffs, Karl had won just 68 playoff games and lost 87.
NEVER EVER HIRE A COACH WITH A POOR PLAYOFFS RECORD
The Nuggets hired Karl despite the fact that he had a poor playoffs rating. When the Nuggets hired Karl, his playoffs record was 65-71. While coaching the Nuggets, Karl's playoffs record is 13-22. Karl's playoff record has gotten worse while he has coached the Nuggets, not better (despite 2009).
The Nuggets were wrong to hire Karl, and they are also wrong not to fire him unless he wins the NBA Championship within the next year or two. Which by the way, the Nuggets were in 2008, possibly were in 2009, and are again for 2010 talented enough to win a Championship if the coaching was top notch. Coaches with losing playoff records are fired by all truly serious NBA franchises these days. Karl had a losing playoffs record when he was hired and it has only gotten worse since.
Why in hell did the Nuggets hire Karl? I can only speculate. The Nuggets either knew in advance they would never win the Quest with Karl and hired him anyway, or they figured incorrectly that Karl's playoff record was trumped by better aspects of Karl's record, or they decided that Karl's playoff record could be excused for rational reasons.
Whatever the Nuggets' management thought, they thought wrong. If you are a team owner or manager, you can not afford to take any risk or to make any benign assumptions or weak rationalizations when you choose a head coach. If a coach has a poor playoffs record, you have no choice but to not hire that coach if you are serious about winning the Quest. There are going to be coaches who are good enough to do well in the regular season, but not good enough to prevail in the playoffs. You should not be the goober who hires one of them, obviously. Let some other franchise/team get stuck with that type of coach.
I have to be blunt here to make sure I am understood. You should never, ever do what the Nuggets did if you are serious about winning the Quest. Your coach should have a good record for both regular season and playoffs. The playoff record is even more important than the regular season record.
Finally, before leaving this crucial subject, I am going to state that given the choice between on the one hand a younger coach who is considered to be a good or great up and coming coach, but who has no NBA playoff record at all, and not much of a regular season one, and on the other hand a long-term veteran coach who has a decent regular season record but a poor, losing playoffs record, you are better off choosing the young coach with no playoff record.
In point blank and clear summary, a coach with a bad playoffs record is one of the worst things you can do if you want to win the Quest.
Mechanically, the playoff sub rating is simply the rating you get when you factor in only the four playoffs-related factors.
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Real Player Ratings of Major Contenders one Month into the 2009-10 Season
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR THE MAJOR CONTENDERS
Each of the three major 2010 contending teams has that mega or historical superstar you look for when you consider whether a team can win a Ring. The Celtics have Rajon Rondo, the Lakers have Kobe Bryant, and the Cavaliers have LeBron James, who is the only one of these three who is in the "Major Historical Superstar" range. James is, amazingly, comfortably in that range.
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Quite honestly the Cavaliers are at the moment hanging on for dear life as a major contender, and either the Mavericks or the Magic may bump the Cavaliers down to the wild card class of teams by the end of December. I refuse to count out LeBron James and the Cavaliers this early in the season, though.
LeBron James is well ahead of Rondo and Bryant, but given Cleveland's overall roster in general, and the big drop off of Zydrunas Ilgauskas in particular, James will need to be even better than he has been so far, or else Anderson Varajao and Mo Williams, who have been great, will need to be even greater, or else Shaquille O'Neal is going to have to play like he did years ago, or some other miraculous thing will have to happen, if the Cavaliers are to win a Ring this year over the Celtics and Lakers.
Let's take a quick look at the Cavaliers starters and their three key reserves so far this season....
Small forward LeBron James finished with a RPR of 1.331 last year, the highest in the NBA, whereas this year he is 1.243 so far. LeBron, you are slacking, laugh out loud.
Point guard Mo Williams finished with a RPR of .789 last year and is .746 so far this year.
2-guard Anthony Parker is obviously being crowded out by LeBron James, who successfully plays both the two and the three spots at the same time. James has to do this to some extent, or the Cavaliers have no chance at all. Parker is only .494 so far this year; he was .661 for Toronto last year.
Power forward J.J. Hickson was .485 for Cleveland last year, and is down to .434 so far this year. Hickson is hurting the Cavaliers and should be playing less than he is. Anderson Varejao is playing far better than Hickson, and the Cavaliers should always be starting Varejao over Hickson. Simply making sure that Varejao gets a little more playing time than does Hickson is not going to cut it. It should be a lot more playing time. Varejao was .694 last year but is far better at .862 so far this year.
Shaquille O'Neal, the replacement starting center for the fading Zydrunas Ilgauskas, has not yet played 300 minutes. Ilgauskas has collapsed from .913 last year to .585 so far this year.
Despite the fact that Jamario Moon technically backs up LeBron James at small forward, he gets a lot of playing time, and he deserves it. He is .787 so far this year, which is solid starter rank, and he is an extremely good defender who unlike many great defenders is also an offensive asset. Last year, Moon was .849 for Toronto. The fact that Moon has not dropped by more than .100 by being on LeBron James' team tells you that Moon complements James well. The bottom line is that the Cavaliers have to give Moon as much playing time as they possibly can, or they will probably not be able to defeat the Celtics this year.
Finally, backup point guard Daniel Gibson was .478 for the Cavaliers last year, and is a better .588 so far this year.
BOSTON CELTICS
Celtics' point guard Rajon Rondo is hanging very close to Kobe Bryant after one month of the 2009-10 season. This spells big, big trouble for Los Angeles and especially for Cleveland. The Cavaliers may simply not be able to beat the Celtics if Rondo is offsetting LeBron James to the extent he is right now, and given that the Celtics other than Rondo are well ahead of the Cavaliers other than James. Rajon Rondo has so far this year completed a remarkable transformation from young yet very, very solid to an historical superstar point guard. Last year, Rondo was a .938, and now so far this year, Rondo is in Hall of Fame / Most Valuable Player territory with a 1.046.
Also for the Celtics, power forward Kevin Garnett has even now not come all the way back from his early 2009 injury, but Rasheed Wallace, who is the Celtics 6th man backing up Kevin Garnett at power forward, is playing much better than he did for Detroit last year, especially defensively, and this has partly made up for Garnett not being at 100%. Garnett himself finished with a RPR of 1.106 last year, and is only .875 so far this year, but look for that to gradually rise and expect Garnett to finish the season above 1.000. Wallace was only .767 for Detroit last year, but he is .816 for Boston this year and, more importantly, Wallace is so far the 2nd best defensive player on the three contenders, behind only Anderson Varejao of the Cavaliers. Wallace, if he continues to play this well on defense, guarantees Boston a repeat application in 2010 of their very strong defensive strategy of 2008.
As if Garnett and Wallace are not already enough power and potential up front, the Celtics also have starting center Kendrick Perkins up from last year: from .666 to .750.
Small forward Paul Pierce did not have one of his very best seasons last year, but this year is different. He is up sharply from .795 last year to .912 so far this year.
Finally, no matter how old he gets, small forward Ray Allen, who is down only very slightly from last year to this, continues to be a huge offensive asset and a decent defensive player in the Celtics' quest for their second ring in three years. Marquis Daniels is now the backup for Allen at 2-guard. He was .710 for Indiana last year, and is .565 so far this year. This drop is likely due to the simple fact that Daniels doesn't get to make as many plays for the major contender Celtics as he did for the Pacers last year.
As we have seen, Pierce, Rondo, Wallace, and Perkins have together more than made up for the need for Garnett to complete his injury recovery. As a result, the Celtics' 2009-10 start has been truly awesome, and so far the Celtics are at least as good a team as they were in 2007-08 when they won the Quest for the Ring.
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Phil Jackson and the Lakers, with Pau Gasol out for the 11 first games of the season, decided they missed Gasol's offense even more than they missed his defense. So to compensate for no Gasol, Jackson and the Lakers decided to rely much more on defense than they normally do to win the early games, which they mostly did.
Lakers mega star Kobe Bryant is playing almost exactly as well so far this year as he did last year when he won his 4th ring (5th Ring counting his MVP as a Ring.) Bryant was 1.075 last year and is 1.093 so far this year (historical superstar both years).
The new Lakers' small forward, Ron Artest is substantially better this year than Trevor Ariza was at that position last year. Artest is .838 so far this year whereas Ariza was .766 for all of last year. Incidentally, Artest for Houston last year was .806.
On the other hand, power forward Lamar Odom is down from .923 to .865. Similarly, center Andrew Bynum is down slightly, from .940 to .900. Both of these players are undoubtedly being negatively affected by the absence of Gasol, who loves to find them for layups and dunks.
LA point guard Derek Fisher (.660 RPR) is playing almost exactly as well this year as he did last year so far, which is in the Good Role Player category. However, keep in mind that Fisher's role for the Lakers is far greater than his RPR would indicate, because he very reliably translates Phil Jackson's strategies and tactics into actual positive results on the court.
BOTTOM LINE
Assuming no major injuries intrude, we are looking at a Celtics-Lakers Championship in 2010, a rematch of the 2008 Championship, and several other identical NBA Championships of history. The Cavaliers may or may not be a major contender, but that they are going to have to transform to compete with the Celtics and the Lakers is clear. Either or both of the wild card teams Mavericks and Magic may eventually be better than the 2010 Cavaliers. All in all, the Cavaliers, Mavericks, and Magic form a "second tier" for the 2010 Quest for the Ring. These three teams are waiting in the wings should the Celtics or Lakers stumble badly due to injury or, much less likely, something other than injury.
We still like the Lakers 4-3, but quite honestly you could call it 4-3 Celtics and you would not get much of an argument from me.
Now using the recently tweaked so they are almost perfect Real Player Rating formulas, let's check to see exactly how good the players on the three major contender teams are so far. All players who have played at least 300 minutes are shown; at least 300 minutes are needed for the hidden defending adjustment (HDA) to be valid. The HDA is included in the following.
REAL PLAYER RATINGS
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included
Kobe Bryant LAL 1.093
Andrew Bynum LAL 0.900
Lamar Odom LAL 0.865
Ron Artest LAL 0.838
Derek Fisher LAL 0.660
Rajon Rondo BOS 1.046
Paul Pierce BOS 0.912
Kevin Garnett BOS 0.875
Rasheed Wallace BOS 0.816
Kendrick Perkins BOS 0.750
Ray Allen BOS 0.743
Marquis Daniels BOS 0.565
LeBron James CLE 1.243
Anderson Varejao CLE 0.862
Jamario Moon CLE 0.787
Mo Williams CLE 0.746
Daniel Gibson CLE 0.588
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 0.585
Anthony Parker CLE 0.494
J.J. Hickson CLE 0.434
REAL PLAYER RATINGS COMBINED SORT
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included
LeBron James CLE 1.243
Kobe Bryant LAL 1.093
Rajon Rondo BOS 1.046
Paul Pierce BOS 0.912
Andrew Bynum LAL 0.900
Kevin Garnett BOS 0.875
Lamar Odom LAL 0.865
Anderson Varejao CLE 0.862
Ron Artest LAL 0.838
Rasheed Wallace BOS 0.816
Jamario Moon CLE 0.787
Kendrick Perkins BOS 0.750
Mo Williams CLE 0.746
Ray Allen BOS 0.743
Derek Fisher LAL 0.660
Daniel Gibson CLE 0.588
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 0.585
Marquis Daniels BOS 0.565
Anthony Parker CLE 0.494
J.J. Hickson CLE 0.434
EVALUATION SCALE FOR REAL PLAYER RATINGS IN A SEASON
Perfect for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.910 0.999
A Star Player / A Well Above Normal Starter 0.830 0.909
Very Good Player / A Solid Starter 0.760 0.829
Major Role Player / Good Enough to Start 0.700 0.759
Good Role Player / Often a Good 6th Man 0.650 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player 0.590 0.649
Marginal Role Player 0.530 0.589
Poor Player 0.470 0.529
Very Poor Player 0.400 0.469
Extremely Poor Player and less 0.399
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included
Kobe Bryant LAL 614.54
Ron Artest LAL 429.80
Lamar Odom LAL 424.09
Andrew Bynum LAL 421.91
Derek Fisher LAL 265.35
Rajon Rondo BOS 561.67
Paul Pierce BOS 521.46
Kevin Garnett BOS 424.22
Ray Allen BOS 415.30
Kendrick Perkins BOS 321.57
Rasheed Wallace BOS 281.58
Marquis Daniels BOS 178.45
LeBron James CLE 800.56
Mo Williams CLE 459.75
Anderson Varejao CLE 383.78
Anthony Parker CLE 252.55
Jamario Moon CLE 234.39
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 227.67
Daniel Gibson CLE 209.90
J.J. Hickson CLE 141.43
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION COMBINED SORT
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included
LeBron James CLE 800.56
Kobe Bryant LAL 614.54
Rajon Rondo BOS 561.67
Paul Pierce BOS 521.46
Mo Williams CLE 459.75
Ron Artest LAL 429.80
Kevin Garnett BOS 424.22
Lamar Odom LAL 424.09
Andrew Bynum LAL 421.91
Ray Allen BOS 415.30
Anderson Varejao CLE 383.78
Kendrick Perkins BOS 321.57
Rasheed Wallace BOS 281.58
Derek Fisher LAL 265.35
Anthony Parker CLE 252.55
Jamario Moon CLE 234.39
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 227.67
Daniel Gibson CLE 209.90
Marquis Daniels BOS 178.45
J.J. Hickson CLE 141.43
========== OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS ==========
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included
Kobe Bryant LAL 0.679
Andrew Bynum LAL 0.478
Ron Artest LAL 0.412
Lamar Odom LAL 0.390
Derek Fisher LAL 0.348
Rajon Rondo BOS 0.695
Paul Pierce BOS 0.626
Ray Allen BOS 0.453
Kevin Garnett BOS 0.449
Marquis Daniels BOS 0.384
Rasheed Wallace BOS 0.320
Kendrick Perkins BOS 0.302
LeBron James CLE 0.872
Mo Williams CLE 0.519
Jamario Moon CLE 0.352
Anderson Varejao CLE 0.304
Daniel Gibson CLE 0.279
Anthony Parker CLE 0.269
J.J. Hickson CLE 0.266
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 0.234
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS COMBINED SORT
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included
LeBron James CLE 0.872
Rajon Rondo BOS 0.695
Kobe Bryant LAL 0.679
Paul Pierce BOS 0.626
Mo Williams CLE 0.519
Andrew Bynum LAL 0.478
Ray Allen BOS 0.453
Kevin Garnett BOS 0.449
Ron Artest LAL 0.412
Lamar Odom LAL 0.390
Marquis Daniels BOS 0.384
Jamario Moon CLE 0.352
Derek Fisher LAL 0.348
Rasheed Wallace BOS 0.320
Anderson Varejao CLE 0.304
Kendrick Perkins BOS 0.302
Daniel Gibson CLE 0.279
Anthony Parker CLE 0.269
J.J. Hickson CLE 0.266
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 0.234
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included
Lamar Odom LAL 0.475
Ron Artest LAL 0.426
Andrew Bynum LAL 0.421
Kobe Bryant LAL 0.415
Derek Fisher LAL 0.313
Rasheed Wallace BOS 0.496
Kendrick Perkins BOS 0.448
Kevin Garnett BOS 0.425
Rajon Rondo BOS 0.351
Ray Allen BOS 0.289
Paul Pierce BOS 0.286
Marquis Daniels BOS 0.181
Anderson Varejao CLE 0.558
Jamario Moon CLE 0.435
LeBron James CLE 0.371
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 0.351
Daniel Gibson CLE 0.309
Mo Williams CLE 0.227
Anthony Parker CLE 0.225
J.J. Hickson CLE 0.168
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS COMBINED SORT
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included
Anderson Varejao CLE 0.558
Rasheed Wallace BOS 0.496
Lamar Odom LAL 0.475
Kendrick Perkins BOS 0.448
Jamario Moon CLE 0.435
Ron Artest LAL 0.426
Kevin Garnett BOS 0.425
Andrew Bynum LAL 0.421
Kobe Bryant LAL 0.415
LeBron James CLE 0.371
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 0.351
Rajon Rondo BOS 0.351
Derek Fisher LAL 0.313
Daniel Gibson CLE 0.309
Ray Allen BOS 0.289
Paul Pierce BOS 0.286
Mo Williams CLE 0.227
Anthony Parker CLE 0.225
Marquis Daniels BOS 0.181
J.J. Hickson CLE 0.168
USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use Real Player Ratings. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.
NOTE ABOUT VIDEOS: Some videos below appear only due to "spam tagging" and should be ignored; hover your mouse on the thumbs at the right to select videos.
CELTICS LATEST VIDEOS
LAKERS LATEST VIDEOS
Each of the three major 2010 contending teams has that mega or historical superstar you look for when you consider whether a team can win a Ring. The Celtics have Rajon Rondo, the Lakers have Kobe Bryant, and the Cavaliers have LeBron James, who is the only one of these three who is in the "Major Historical Superstar" range. James is, amazingly, comfortably in that range.
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Quite honestly the Cavaliers are at the moment hanging on for dear life as a major contender, and either the Mavericks or the Magic may bump the Cavaliers down to the wild card class of teams by the end of December. I refuse to count out LeBron James and the Cavaliers this early in the season, though.
LeBron James is well ahead of Rondo and Bryant, but given Cleveland's overall roster in general, and the big drop off of Zydrunas Ilgauskas in particular, James will need to be even better than he has been so far, or else Anderson Varajao and Mo Williams, who have been great, will need to be even greater, or else Shaquille O'Neal is going to have to play like he did years ago, or some other miraculous thing will have to happen, if the Cavaliers are to win a Ring this year over the Celtics and Lakers.
Let's take a quick look at the Cavaliers starters and their three key reserves so far this season....
Small forward LeBron James finished with a RPR of 1.331 last year, the highest in the NBA, whereas this year he is 1.243 so far. LeBron, you are slacking, laugh out loud.
Point guard Mo Williams finished with a RPR of .789 last year and is .746 so far this year.
2-guard Anthony Parker is obviously being crowded out by LeBron James, who successfully plays both the two and the three spots at the same time. James has to do this to some extent, or the Cavaliers have no chance at all. Parker is only .494 so far this year; he was .661 for Toronto last year.
Power forward J.J. Hickson was .485 for Cleveland last year, and is down to .434 so far this year. Hickson is hurting the Cavaliers and should be playing less than he is. Anderson Varejao is playing far better than Hickson, and the Cavaliers should always be starting Varejao over Hickson. Simply making sure that Varejao gets a little more playing time than does Hickson is not going to cut it. It should be a lot more playing time. Varejao was .694 last year but is far better at .862 so far this year.
Shaquille O'Neal, the replacement starting center for the fading Zydrunas Ilgauskas, has not yet played 300 minutes. Ilgauskas has collapsed from .913 last year to .585 so far this year.
Despite the fact that Jamario Moon technically backs up LeBron James at small forward, he gets a lot of playing time, and he deserves it. He is .787 so far this year, which is solid starter rank, and he is an extremely good defender who unlike many great defenders is also an offensive asset. Last year, Moon was .849 for Toronto. The fact that Moon has not dropped by more than .100 by being on LeBron James' team tells you that Moon complements James well. The bottom line is that the Cavaliers have to give Moon as much playing time as they possibly can, or they will probably not be able to defeat the Celtics this year.
Finally, backup point guard Daniel Gibson was .478 for the Cavaliers last year, and is a better .588 so far this year.
BOSTON CELTICS
Celtics' point guard Rajon Rondo is hanging very close to Kobe Bryant after one month of the 2009-10 season. This spells big, big trouble for Los Angeles and especially for Cleveland. The Cavaliers may simply not be able to beat the Celtics if Rondo is offsetting LeBron James to the extent he is right now, and given that the Celtics other than Rondo are well ahead of the Cavaliers other than James. Rajon Rondo has so far this year completed a remarkable transformation from young yet very, very solid to an historical superstar point guard. Last year, Rondo was a .938, and now so far this year, Rondo is in Hall of Fame / Most Valuable Player territory with a 1.046.
Also for the Celtics, power forward Kevin Garnett has even now not come all the way back from his early 2009 injury, but Rasheed Wallace, who is the Celtics 6th man backing up Kevin Garnett at power forward, is playing much better than he did for Detroit last year, especially defensively, and this has partly made up for Garnett not being at 100%. Garnett himself finished with a RPR of 1.106 last year, and is only .875 so far this year, but look for that to gradually rise and expect Garnett to finish the season above 1.000. Wallace was only .767 for Detroit last year, but he is .816 for Boston this year and, more importantly, Wallace is so far the 2nd best defensive player on the three contenders, behind only Anderson Varejao of the Cavaliers. Wallace, if he continues to play this well on defense, guarantees Boston a repeat application in 2010 of their very strong defensive strategy of 2008.
As if Garnett and Wallace are not already enough power and potential up front, the Celtics also have starting center Kendrick Perkins up from last year: from .666 to .750.
Small forward Paul Pierce did not have one of his very best seasons last year, but this year is different. He is up sharply from .795 last year to .912 so far this year.
Finally, no matter how old he gets, small forward Ray Allen, who is down only very slightly from last year to this, continues to be a huge offensive asset and a decent defensive player in the Celtics' quest for their second ring in three years. Marquis Daniels is now the backup for Allen at 2-guard. He was .710 for Indiana last year, and is .565 so far this year. This drop is likely due to the simple fact that Daniels doesn't get to make as many plays for the major contender Celtics as he did for the Pacers last year.
As we have seen, Pierce, Rondo, Wallace, and Perkins have together more than made up for the need for Garnett to complete his injury recovery. As a result, the Celtics' 2009-10 start has been truly awesome, and so far the Celtics are at least as good a team as they were in 2007-08 when they won the Quest for the Ring.
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Phil Jackson and the Lakers, with Pau Gasol out for the 11 first games of the season, decided they missed Gasol's offense even more than they missed his defense. So to compensate for no Gasol, Jackson and the Lakers decided to rely much more on defense than they normally do to win the early games, which they mostly did.
Lakers mega star Kobe Bryant is playing almost exactly as well so far this year as he did last year when he won his 4th ring (5th Ring counting his MVP as a Ring.) Bryant was 1.075 last year and is 1.093 so far this year (historical superstar both years).
The new Lakers' small forward, Ron Artest is substantially better this year than Trevor Ariza was at that position last year. Artest is .838 so far this year whereas Ariza was .766 for all of last year. Incidentally, Artest for Houston last year was .806.
On the other hand, power forward Lamar Odom is down from .923 to .865. Similarly, center Andrew Bynum is down slightly, from .940 to .900. Both of these players are undoubtedly being negatively affected by the absence of Gasol, who loves to find them for layups and dunks.
LA point guard Derek Fisher (.660 RPR) is playing almost exactly as well this year as he did last year so far, which is in the Good Role Player category. However, keep in mind that Fisher's role for the Lakers is far greater than his RPR would indicate, because he very reliably translates Phil Jackson's strategies and tactics into actual positive results on the court.
BOTTOM LINE
Assuming no major injuries intrude, we are looking at a Celtics-Lakers Championship in 2010, a rematch of the 2008 Championship, and several other identical NBA Championships of history. The Cavaliers may or may not be a major contender, but that they are going to have to transform to compete with the Celtics and the Lakers is clear. Either or both of the wild card teams Mavericks and Magic may eventually be better than the 2010 Cavaliers. All in all, the Cavaliers, Mavericks, and Magic form a "second tier" for the 2010 Quest for the Ring. These three teams are waiting in the wings should the Celtics or Lakers stumble badly due to injury or, much less likely, something other than injury.
We still like the Lakers 4-3, but quite honestly you could call it 4-3 Celtics and you would not get much of an argument from me.
Now using the recently tweaked so they are almost perfect Real Player Rating formulas, let's check to see exactly how good the players on the three major contender teams are so far. All players who have played at least 300 minutes are shown; at least 300 minutes are needed for the hidden defending adjustment (HDA) to be valid. The HDA is included in the following.
REAL PLAYER RATINGS
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included
Kobe Bryant LAL 1.093
Andrew Bynum LAL 0.900
Lamar Odom LAL 0.865
Ron Artest LAL 0.838
Derek Fisher LAL 0.660
Rajon Rondo BOS 1.046
Paul Pierce BOS 0.912
Kevin Garnett BOS 0.875
Rasheed Wallace BOS 0.816
Kendrick Perkins BOS 0.750
Ray Allen BOS 0.743
Marquis Daniels BOS 0.565
LeBron James CLE 1.243
Anderson Varejao CLE 0.862
Jamario Moon CLE 0.787
Mo Williams CLE 0.746
Daniel Gibson CLE 0.588
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 0.585
Anthony Parker CLE 0.494
J.J. Hickson CLE 0.434
REAL PLAYER RATINGS COMBINED SORT
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included
LeBron James CLE 1.243
Kobe Bryant LAL 1.093
Rajon Rondo BOS 1.046
Paul Pierce BOS 0.912
Andrew Bynum LAL 0.900
Kevin Garnett BOS 0.875
Lamar Odom LAL 0.865
Anderson Varejao CLE 0.862
Ron Artest LAL 0.838
Rasheed Wallace BOS 0.816
Jamario Moon CLE 0.787
Kendrick Perkins BOS 0.750
Mo Williams CLE 0.746
Ray Allen BOS 0.743
Derek Fisher LAL 0.660
Daniel Gibson CLE 0.588
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 0.585
Marquis Daniels BOS 0.565
Anthony Parker CLE 0.494
J.J. Hickson CLE 0.434
EVALUATION SCALE FOR REAL PLAYER RATINGS IN A SEASON
Perfect for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.910 0.999
A Star Player / A Well Above Normal Starter 0.830 0.909
Very Good Player / A Solid Starter 0.760 0.829
Major Role Player / Good Enough to Start 0.700 0.759
Good Role Player / Often a Good 6th Man 0.650 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player 0.590 0.649
Marginal Role Player 0.530 0.589
Poor Player 0.470 0.529
Very Poor Player 0.400 0.469
Extremely Poor Player and less 0.399
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included
Kobe Bryant LAL 614.54
Ron Artest LAL 429.80
Lamar Odom LAL 424.09
Andrew Bynum LAL 421.91
Derek Fisher LAL 265.35
Rajon Rondo BOS 561.67
Paul Pierce BOS 521.46
Kevin Garnett BOS 424.22
Ray Allen BOS 415.30
Kendrick Perkins BOS 321.57
Rasheed Wallace BOS 281.58
Marquis Daniels BOS 178.45
LeBron James CLE 800.56
Mo Williams CLE 459.75
Anderson Varejao CLE 383.78
Anthony Parker CLE 252.55
Jamario Moon CLE 234.39
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 227.67
Daniel Gibson CLE 209.90
J.J. Hickson CLE 141.43
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION COMBINED SORT
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included
LeBron James CLE 800.56
Kobe Bryant LAL 614.54
Rajon Rondo BOS 561.67
Paul Pierce BOS 521.46
Mo Williams CLE 459.75
Ron Artest LAL 429.80
Kevin Garnett BOS 424.22
Lamar Odom LAL 424.09
Andrew Bynum LAL 421.91
Ray Allen BOS 415.30
Anderson Varejao CLE 383.78
Kendrick Perkins BOS 321.57
Rasheed Wallace BOS 281.58
Derek Fisher LAL 265.35
Anthony Parker CLE 252.55
Jamario Moon CLE 234.39
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 227.67
Daniel Gibson CLE 209.90
Marquis Daniels BOS 178.45
J.J. Hickson CLE 141.43
========== OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS ==========
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included
Kobe Bryant LAL 0.679
Andrew Bynum LAL 0.478
Ron Artest LAL 0.412
Lamar Odom LAL 0.390
Derek Fisher LAL 0.348
Rajon Rondo BOS 0.695
Paul Pierce BOS 0.626
Ray Allen BOS 0.453
Kevin Garnett BOS 0.449
Marquis Daniels BOS 0.384
Rasheed Wallace BOS 0.320
Kendrick Perkins BOS 0.302
LeBron James CLE 0.872
Mo Williams CLE 0.519
Jamario Moon CLE 0.352
Anderson Varejao CLE 0.304
Daniel Gibson CLE 0.279
Anthony Parker CLE 0.269
J.J. Hickson CLE 0.266
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 0.234
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS COMBINED SORT
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included
LeBron James CLE 0.872
Rajon Rondo BOS 0.695
Kobe Bryant LAL 0.679
Paul Pierce BOS 0.626
Mo Williams CLE 0.519
Andrew Bynum LAL 0.478
Ray Allen BOS 0.453
Kevin Garnett BOS 0.449
Ron Artest LAL 0.412
Lamar Odom LAL 0.390
Marquis Daniels BOS 0.384
Jamario Moon CLE 0.352
Derek Fisher LAL 0.348
Rasheed Wallace BOS 0.320
Anderson Varejao CLE 0.304
Kendrick Perkins BOS 0.302
Daniel Gibson CLE 0.279
Anthony Parker CLE 0.269
J.J. Hickson CLE 0.266
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 0.234
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included
Lamar Odom LAL 0.475
Ron Artest LAL 0.426
Andrew Bynum LAL 0.421
Kobe Bryant LAL 0.415
Derek Fisher LAL 0.313
Rasheed Wallace BOS 0.496
Kendrick Perkins BOS 0.448
Kevin Garnett BOS 0.425
Rajon Rondo BOS 0.351
Ray Allen BOS 0.289
Paul Pierce BOS 0.286
Marquis Daniels BOS 0.181
Anderson Varejao CLE 0.558
Jamario Moon CLE 0.435
LeBron James CLE 0.371
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 0.351
Daniel Gibson CLE 0.309
Mo Williams CLE 0.227
Anthony Parker CLE 0.225
J.J. Hickson CLE 0.168
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS COMBINED SORT
PLAYERS OF THE THREE MAJOR NBA CONTENDERS
AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2009
All players who have played 300 or more minutes are included
Anderson Varejao CLE 0.558
Rasheed Wallace BOS 0.496
Lamar Odom LAL 0.475
Kendrick Perkins BOS 0.448
Jamario Moon CLE 0.435
Ron Artest LAL 0.426
Kevin Garnett BOS 0.425
Andrew Bynum LAL 0.421
Kobe Bryant LAL 0.415
LeBron James CLE 0.371
Zydrunas Ilgauskas CLE 0.351
Rajon Rondo BOS 0.351
Derek Fisher LAL 0.313
Daniel Gibson CLE 0.309
Ray Allen BOS 0.289
Paul Pierce BOS 0.286
Mo Williams CLE 0.227
Anthony Parker CLE 0.225
Marquis Daniels BOS 0.181
J.J. Hickson CLE 0.168
USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use Real Player Ratings. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.
NOTE ABOUT VIDEOS: Some videos below appear only due to "spam tagging" and should be ignored; hover your mouse on the thumbs at the right to select videos.
CELTICS LATEST VIDEOS
iDesktop.tv
LAKERS LATEST VIDEOS
iDesktop.tv
Saturday, November 28, 2009
NBA MVP Equals One Ring and NBA Hall of Fame Equals Two Rings
Effective immediately, a NBA Most Valuable Player designation equals one Ring and an NBA Hall of Fame designation equals two Rings.
The Quest for the Ring, the basketball project that is totally dedicated to explaining how and why those who win Rings win them, with about 1.4 million words toward this objective and counting, is announcing today that all NBA players who have won the annual Most Valuable Player award will be considered to have won the Quest for the Ring once. We also announce that all NBA players and all NBA head coaches admitted to the NBA Hall of Fame will be considered to have won the Quest twice.
Hall of Fame inductees who were not part of the NBA are not considered to have won a Ring. The Quest for the Ring is the Quest to win the Championship of the primary pro basketball League in the US since about 1950. That primary League is the National Basketball Association, or NBA.
In other words, being League MVP is at a minimum equal in importance and amount of accomplishment to winning the Ring. And being in the NBA Hall of Fame for basketball greatness across an entire career is at least equal in importance and amount of accomplishment to two Rings from winning Championships.
Actually, those two equivalencies are both very conservative approximations. MVP should actually be worth at least two rings and Hall of Fame should actually be worth about three Rings. But for now, we’ll leave the equivalencies very conservative as stated.
Anyone who disagrees can try to explain why being NBA MVP or winning that rare acceptance to the Basketball Hall of Fame is not AT LEAST as much of an honor and accomplishment as is winning a Championship. Good luck if you set out to do that, because I highly doubt you will succeed at showing that.
We will within the next six months be updating the Reports that came out last summer that showed the number of rings won by player.
Allen Iverson and other MVPs and Hall of Famers who never won a Championship finally have Rings at the place on the Internet that is totally dedicated to the Ring and how you win it: The Quest for the Ring.
Congratulations to Allen Iverson and to every other MVP and Hall of Fame player who somehow (due to bad coaches, for example) never won a Ring. You get what you clearly deserve at Quest for the Ring.
ONE RING FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING:
NBA MOST VALUABLE PLAYERS
TWO RINGS FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING:
NBA PLAYERS AND COACHES ADMITTED
TO THE BASKETBALL HALL OF FAME
2009 Michael Jordan
2009 David Robinson
2009 Jerry Sloan
2009 John Stockton
2008 Adrian Dantley
2008 Patrick Ewing
2008 Hakeem Olajuwon
2008 Pat Riley
2007 Phil Jackson
2006 Charles Barkley
2006 Joe Dumars
2006 Dominique Wilkins
2004 Clyde Drexler
2004 Bill Sharman
2004 Maurice Stokes
2003 Robert Parish
2003 James Worthy
2002 Larry Brown
2002 Magic Johnson
2002 Drazen Petrovic
2001 Moses Malone
2000 Bob McAdoo
2000 Isiah Thomas
1999 Kevin McHale
1998 Larry Bird
1998 Alex Hannum
1998 Arnie Risen
1998 Lenny Wilkens
1997 Alex English
1997 Bailey Howell
1996 George Gervin
1996 Gail Goodrich
1996 David Thompson
1996 George Yardley
1995 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
1995 John Kundla
1995 Vern Mikkelsen
1994 Chuck Daly
1994 Buddy Jeannette
1993 Walt Bellamy
1993 Julius Erving
1993 Dan Issel
1993 Dick McGuire
1993 Calvin Murphy
1993 Bill Walton
1992 Connie Hawkins
1992 Bob Lanier
1992 Jack Ramsay
1991 Tiny Archibald
1991 Dave Cowens
1991 Harry Gallatin
1990 Dave Bing
1990 Elvin Hayes
1990 Neil Johnston
1990 Earl Monroe
1989 K.C. Jones
1989 Lenny Wilkens
1988 Clyde Lovellette
1988 Wes Unseld
1987 Rick Barry
1987 Walt Frazier
1987 Bob Houbregs
1987 Pete Maravich
1987 Bobby Wanzer
1986 Billy Cunningham
1986 Tom Heinsohn
1986 Red Holzman
1985 Al Cervi
1985 Nate Thurmond
1984 John Havlicek
1984 Sam Jones
1983 Bill Bradley
1983 Dave DeBusschere
1983 Jack Twyman
1982 Hal Greer
1982 Slater Martin
1982 Frank Ramsey
1982 Willis Reed
1980 Jerry Lucas
1980 Oscar Robertson
1980 Jerry West
1979 Wilt Chamberlain
1978 Paul Arizin
1978 Joe Fulks
1978 Cliff Hagan
1978 Jim Pollard
1977 Elgin Baylor
1977 Frank McGuire
1976 Tom Gola
1976 Bill Sharman
1975 Bill Russell
1973 Dolph Schayes
1971 Bob Cousy
1971 Bob Pettit
1970 Bob Davies
1969 Red Auerbach
1968 Alvin Julian
1964 Kenneth Loeffler
1961 Andy Phillip
1960 Ed Macauley
1959 George Mikan
There you go Allen Iverson, you can retire in peace now, you have a Ring already with two more on the way. Even playing the wrong position, hell, even playing two positions at once, in effect with one hand behind your back, you were a Champion.
How could any player win an ordinary Championship while playing the wrong position and/or while playing two positions at once due to bad coaching? That's most likely impossible. But Allen Iverson won everything he could win with the position and the very poor coaching he was given.
You will forever be basketball, Allen Iverson, and Quest thanks you more than we can say for giving us our faith in and love of basketball.
ALLEN IVERSON: NBA 2001 MVP AND WINNER OF ONE RING
WITH TWO MORE TO COME WHEN ALLEN ENTERS THE HALL OF FAME
ALLEN IVERSON = BASKETBALL
FOREVER
The Quest for the Ring, the basketball project that is totally dedicated to explaining how and why those who win Rings win them, with about 1.4 million words toward this objective and counting, is announcing today that all NBA players who have won the annual Most Valuable Player award will be considered to have won the Quest for the Ring once. We also announce that all NBA players and all NBA head coaches admitted to the NBA Hall of Fame will be considered to have won the Quest twice.
Hall of Fame inductees who were not part of the NBA are not considered to have won a Ring. The Quest for the Ring is the Quest to win the Championship of the primary pro basketball League in the US since about 1950. That primary League is the National Basketball Association, or NBA.
In other words, being League MVP is at a minimum equal in importance and amount of accomplishment to winning the Ring. And being in the NBA Hall of Fame for basketball greatness across an entire career is at least equal in importance and amount of accomplishment to two Rings from winning Championships.
Actually, those two equivalencies are both very conservative approximations. MVP should actually be worth at least two rings and Hall of Fame should actually be worth about three Rings. But for now, we’ll leave the equivalencies very conservative as stated.
Anyone who disagrees can try to explain why being NBA MVP or winning that rare acceptance to the Basketball Hall of Fame is not AT LEAST as much of an honor and accomplishment as is winning a Championship. Good luck if you set out to do that, because I highly doubt you will succeed at showing that.
We will within the next six months be updating the Reports that came out last summer that showed the number of rings won by player.
Allen Iverson and other MVPs and Hall of Famers who never won a Championship finally have Rings at the place on the Internet that is totally dedicated to the Ring and how you win it: The Quest for the Ring.
Congratulations to Allen Iverson and to every other MVP and Hall of Fame player who somehow (due to bad coaches, for example) never won a Ring. You get what you clearly deserve at Quest for the Ring.
ONE RING FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING:
NBA MOST VALUABLE PLAYERS
| 1955–56 | Bob Pettit | | Forward |
| 1956–57 | Bob Cousy | | Guard |
| 1957–58 | Bill Russell | | Center |
| 1958–59 | Bob Pettit | | Forward |
| 1959–60 | Wilt Chamberlain | | Center |
| 1960–61 | Bill Russell | | Center |
| 1961–62 | Bill Russell | | Center |
| 1962–63 | Bill Russell | | Center |
| 1963–64 | Oscar Robertson | | Guard |
| 1964–65 | Bill Russell | | Center |
| 1965–66 | Wilt Chamberlain | | Center |
| 1966–67 | Wilt Chamberlain | | Center |
| 1967–68 | Wilt Chamberlain | | Center |
| 1968–69 | Wes Unseld | | Center/Forward |
| 1969–70 | Willis Reed | | Center/Forward |
| 1970–71 | Lew Alcindor | | Center |
| 1971–72 | Kareem Abdul-Jabbar | | Center |
| 1972–73 | Dave Cowens | | Center |
| 1973–74 | Kareem Abdul-Jabbar | | Center |
| 1974–75 | Bob McAdoo | | Forward/Center |
| 1975–76 | Kareem Abdul-Jabbar | | Center |
| 1976–77 | Kareem Abdul-Jabbar | | Center |
| 1977–78 | Bill Walton | Portland Trail Blazers | Center |
| 1978–79 | Moses Malone | | Center/Forward |
| 1979–80 | Kareem Abdul-Jabbar | | Center |
| 1980–81 | Julius Erving | | Forward |
| 1981–82 | Moses Malone | | Center/Forward |
| 1982–83 | Moses Malone | | Center/Forward |
| 1983–84 | Larry Bird | | Forward |
| 1984–85 | Larry Bird | | Forward |
| 1985–86 | Larry Bird | | Forward |
| 1986–87 | Magic Johnson | | Guard |
| 1987–88 | Michael Jordan | | Guard |
| 1988–89 | Magic Johnson | | Guard |
| 1989–90 | Magic Johnson | | Guard |
| 1990–91 | Michael Jordan | | Guard |
| 1991–92 | Michael Jordan | | Guard |
| 1992–93 | Charles Barkley | | Forward |
| 1993–94 | Hakeem Olajuwon | | Center |
| 1994–95 | David Robinson | | Center |
| 1995–96 | Michael Jordan | | Guard |
| 1996–97 | Karl Malone | | Forward |
| 1997–98 | Michael Jordan | | Guard |
| 1998–99 | Karl Malone | | Forward |
| 1999–00 | Shaquille O'Neal | | Center |
| 2000–01 | Allen Iverson | | Guard |
| 2001–02 | Tim Duncan | | Forward/Center |
| 2002–03 | Tim Duncan | | Forward/Center |
| 2003–04 | Kevin Garnett | | Forward |
| 2004–05 | Steve Nash | | Guard |
| 2005–06 | Steve Nash | | Guard |
| 2006–07 | Dirk Nowitzki | | Forward |
| 2007–08 | | | Guard |
| 2008–09 | LeBron James | | Forward |
TWO RINGS FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING:
NBA PLAYERS AND COACHES ADMITTED
TO THE BASKETBALL HALL OF FAME
2009 Michael Jordan
2009 David Robinson
2009 Jerry Sloan
2009 John Stockton
2008 Adrian Dantley
2008 Patrick Ewing
2008 Hakeem Olajuwon
2008 Pat Riley
2007 Phil Jackson
2006 Charles Barkley
2006 Joe Dumars
2006 Dominique Wilkins
2004 Clyde Drexler
2004 Bill Sharman
2004 Maurice Stokes
2003 Robert Parish
2003 James Worthy
2002 Larry Brown
2002 Magic Johnson
2002 Drazen Petrovic
2001 Moses Malone
2000 Bob McAdoo
2000 Isiah Thomas
1999 Kevin McHale
1998 Larry Bird
1998 Alex Hannum
1998 Arnie Risen
1998 Lenny Wilkens
1997 Alex English
1997 Bailey Howell
1996 George Gervin
1996 Gail Goodrich
1996 David Thompson
1996 George Yardley
1995 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
1995 John Kundla
1995 Vern Mikkelsen
1994 Chuck Daly
1994 Buddy Jeannette
1993 Walt Bellamy
1993 Julius Erving
1993 Dan Issel
1993 Dick McGuire
1993 Calvin Murphy
1993 Bill Walton
1992 Connie Hawkins
1992 Bob Lanier
1992 Jack Ramsay
1991 Tiny Archibald
1991 Dave Cowens
1991 Harry Gallatin
1990 Dave Bing
1990 Elvin Hayes
1990 Neil Johnston
1990 Earl Monroe
1989 K.C. Jones
1989 Lenny Wilkens
1988 Clyde Lovellette
1988 Wes Unseld
1987 Rick Barry
1987 Walt Frazier
1987 Bob Houbregs
1987 Pete Maravich
1987 Bobby Wanzer
1986 Billy Cunningham
1986 Tom Heinsohn
1986 Red Holzman
1985 Al Cervi
1985 Nate Thurmond
1984 John Havlicek
1984 Sam Jones
1983 Bill Bradley
1983 Dave DeBusschere
1983 Jack Twyman
1982 Hal Greer
1982 Slater Martin
1982 Frank Ramsey
1982 Willis Reed
1980 Jerry Lucas
1980 Oscar Robertson
1980 Jerry West
1979 Wilt Chamberlain
1978 Paul Arizin
1978 Joe Fulks
1978 Cliff Hagan
1978 Jim Pollard
1977 Elgin Baylor
1977 Frank McGuire
1976 Tom Gola
1976 Bill Sharman
1975 Bill Russell
1973 Dolph Schayes
1971 Bob Cousy
1971 Bob Pettit
1970 Bob Davies
1969 Red Auerbach
1968 Alvin Julian
1964 Kenneth Loeffler
1961 Andy Phillip
1960 Ed Macauley
1959 George Mikan
There you go Allen Iverson, you can retire in peace now, you have a Ring already with two more on the way. Even playing the wrong position, hell, even playing two positions at once, in effect with one hand behind your back, you were a Champion.
How could any player win an ordinary Championship while playing the wrong position and/or while playing two positions at once due to bad coaching? That's most likely impossible. But Allen Iverson won everything he could win with the position and the very poor coaching he was given.
You will forever be basketball, Allen Iverson, and Quest thanks you more than we can say for giving us our faith in and love of basketball.
ALLEN IVERSON: NBA 2001 MVP AND WINNER OF ONE RING
WITH TWO MORE TO COME WHEN ALLEN ENTERS THE HALL OF FAME
ALLEN IVERSON = BASKETBALL
FOREVER
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